Emerging Europe Economics Update Has Hungary really turned the corner? Hungary has been buoyed by a raft of good news over the past few months. Q1 GDP data showed that the economy exited recession, the budget deficit has narrowed to the extent that the European... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy still struggling There is little evidence in June’s activity data that Russia’s struggling economy is about to turn the corner. All told, it seems that GDP grew by around 1.5-2.0% y/y in the second quarter – broadly... 17th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: QE or not QE? The suggestion by some commentators that the new lending facility unveiled by the Central Bank of Russia last week amounts to a form of quantitative easing seems wide of the mark. All the signs so far... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: Nabiullina’s first meeting suggests policy continuity Russia’s Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged at its first meeting under the new governor, Elvira Nabiullina, confirming our view that the change in leadership at the CBR is... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Emerging Europe doomed to lag behind? There are encouraging signs that the slowdown in Emerging Europe has bottomed out in recent months and we think growth should strengthen over the second half of this year. The recovery will remain... 10th July 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Russian property: is the best now behind us? The structural slowdown in Russian economic growth suggests that commercial property rents will enter a lower growth phase. This is a concern given that sustained, decent rates of rental growth are... 5th July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs add to evidence of improvement in Eastern Europe The latest batch of Emerging European manufacturing PMIs adds to the growing sense that things are improving in the region. This reinforces our view that growth in the second half of this year is... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Credit conditions still tight Our latest Banking Heat Map suggests that credit conditions in most countries in Emerging Europe remain extremely tight. The main exception is Turkey, where credit growth has accelerated again in... 28th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Grounds for cautious optimism The latest activity data from Emerging Europe provide some grounds for cautious optimism. Growth in the highly open Central European economies appears to be picking up, albeit from low rates. And... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: is fiscal policy really impotent? The debate over the role of policy stimulus in reviving Russia’s flagging economy has been given extra impetus over the past week by the release of the IMF’s latest Article IV report, which argues... 21st June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: weak May's data to fuel stimulus debate Part of the weakness of May’s activity data in Russia can be explained by working day effects. Nonetheless, the bigger picture is that while there is some (albeit tentative) evidence that the slump in... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Protests hit Turkish markets Turkey’s financial markets have taken a pounding over the past few weeks as the recent wave of protests caused investors to take fright. Elsewhere, currencies and foreign currency bonds have lost... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hopes that CEE investment had turned a corner are dashed The likely drop in Central & Eastern European (CEE) investment volumes in Q2 will have dashed any hopes that the trend for activity might have turned a corner. Moreover, the recent sell-off in... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lower interest rates not a panacea to Russia’s problems There are signs that pressure from the Russian government on both the central bank and commercial banks to lower interest rates may be starting to have an impact on borrowing costs in the real economy... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ignatiev keeps rates on hold in last CBR meeting Sergey Ignatiev ended his tenure as governor of the CBR by leaving key interest rates on hold today but, with inflation on course to fall over the second half of the year and Mr. Ignatiev’s successor... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: May's rise in inflation to postpone rate cuts The sharp increase in Russian inflation in May means that interest rates are likely to be left on hold when Russian central bankers meet next week. However, inflation continues to be driven by food... 4th June 2013 · 1 min read
