Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs show first signs of green shoots The latest batch of manufacturing PMI data from Emerging Europe provide the first signs that the region’s economy is turning around. However, for now at least, the recovery appears to be concentrated... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How concerning for property is the Russian economic slowdown? The Russian economy cooled at the end of 2012, as we had expected, and growth is likely to remain lacklustre this year. However, although there are signs that the slowdown may be affecting the office... 1st February 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: solid 2012 growth masks second half slowdown Preliminary data showing that Russia grew by a solid 3.4% in 2012 masks the fact that the economy slowed fairly sharply over the course of the year and is now growing by around 2% y/y. The recent... 31st January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Sentiment picks up but growth still weak The outlook for Emerging Europe has brightened considerably at the start of the year. Equities have rallied while the latest survey data from key euro-zone export markets have picked up markedly... 30th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: a disappointing end to 2012 While most emerging markets staged a recovery in the final months of 2012, Russia appears to have bucked the trend. The latest raft of activity data suggests that growth weakened to just 2% y/y in Q4... 25th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What do our new oil forecasts mean for Russia? Modest upward revisions to our (below consensus) forecast for oil prices this year do not radically alter our view on the economic outlook for Russia. The budget deficit is likely to be slightly... 22nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble flexibility is for real Some commentators are starting to question the extent to which Russia has moved towards greater currency flexibility in recent years. We see little to justify these doubts. Improving global sentiment... 16th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian Central Bank signals rate cuts The Central Bank of Russia left its benchmark interest rates on hold this morning as was widely expected. More importantly, the tone of the accompanying statement reveals that the Bank has become... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New NBH Governor could catch markets off guard The appointment of Hungary’s new central bank Governor, due to be announced next month, has the potential to shatter the recent calm in the local financial markets. In this Watch, we assess the... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Debate over size of Russian outflows misses the point A spat towards the end of last year over the true scale of capital flight from Russia risks missing the bigger picture, which is that capital continues to flow out of the country in the first place... 8th January 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A tough end to the year Growth across Emerging Europe has continued to slow in recent months and is likely to remain extremely weak in 2013. Official data suggest that the region grew by less than 2% y/y in the third quarter... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: interest rate "hike" does not alter monetary stance The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) left its benchmark lending rates on hold today, but hiked its overnight deposit rate by 25bps. Given the liquidity shortage in the interbank market and the fact that... 10th December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s manufacturing stabilises November’s PMIs were a positive surprise for Central Europe, where it looks like the manufacturingsector stabilised. Elsewhere, signs that Turkey’s exports may be flat-lining are worrying as they mean... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth slows, markets rally A raft of recently released Q3 GDP data for Emerging Europe paints a pretty gloomy picture. The Czech and Hungarian economies are still stuck in recession, while even the region’s better performers –... 29th November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Slowdown has further to run A strong labour market combined with low and stable mortgage rates have not been able to prevent a small rise in mortgage arrears. Possessions are currently being kept low by continued lender... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The Russian economy makes a poor start to Q4 Following last week’s disappointing GDP release, which showed that the economy slowed to just 2.9% y/y in Q3, the raft of activity data for October suggests that the slowdown has continued in Q4. We... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
