Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia leaves rates on hold as another "gas war" looms The Central Bank of Russia was never likely to alter interest rates at its meeting today – while the economy remains weak, high and rising inflation limits the room for policy support. Meanwhile, news... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What next for Russia's financial markets? We do not think the recent outperformance of Russia’s financial markets and currency will last. Indeed, the ruble has already dropped back slightly over the past week or so. There are three key... 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Central and Eastern Europe: competitive again The pre-crisis boom years in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) led to an erosion of external competitiveness which is one reason why the recovery from the 2008-09 crisis has been so sluggish. But... 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More to Turkey’s rebalancing than meets the eye Turkish Q1 GDP data due tomorrow are likely toreinforce optimism in the markets that the economyis undergoing a smooth rebalancing, with netexports taking over from domestic demand as themain driver... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The ECB and what it means for Central & Eastern Europe Yesterday’s move by the ECB is another reason to think that monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will remain loose for longer than most people expect. However, the impact of the ECB’s... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Weak growth masks diverging prospects Growth in Emerging Europe is set to remain sluggish over the next couple of years, due in large part to continued weakness in the region’s largest economy, Russia, and a looming slowdown in the region... 4th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Less to Russia’s industry rebound than meets the eye The rebound in Russian industrial production has taken many, including us, by surprise and has been interpreted by some as a sign that a weaker ruble has started to provide support to industry... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish PMI may be overly pessimistic At first glance, the sharp fall in Poland’s manufacturing PMI in May suggests that the economy has lost some steam, perhaps due to spillovers from the crisis in neighbouring Ukraine. However, it’s... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian markets rebound as Ukraine concerns take a back seat Russian equities and the ruble have been the region’s best performers over the past month following conciliatory remarks from Russia’s President Putin as well as Petro Poroshenko’s victory in Ukraine... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Strong rally in Russian equities unlikely to last Over the past month, the stock market has performed better in Russia than in any other country included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, as tensions in Ukraine have eased. But the near-15% rally... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Ukraine crisis pushes Russia towards recession The raft of Q1 GDP data released this month showed a growing divergence in the region. The crisis in Ukraine and threat of Western sanctions took a heavy toll on the Russian economy, which seems to be... 23rd May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Russia – China deal unlikely to boost European gas prices Proposed exports of Russian gas to China will have limited impact on the potential supply to the rest of Europe. Indeed, the price of LNG may actually be lower than otherwise as a result of the... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Central Europe likely to outperform Over the next few years, a gradual recovery in economic activity should support rising occupier demand and rental values in most non-euro-zone European commercial property markets. But with high... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gazprom’s China deal not a game changer for Russia’s economy The benefits to the Russian economy from the $400bn deal signed earlier today between Russia and China are likely to be smaller than most seem to think. Instead, the importance of the deal is largely... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Market may be too quick to price in Russia rate cuts The recent rebound in the ruble has led the market to price in interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) over the coming months. We think this is premature. Leaving aside the fact that... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP data to show strengthening recovery in Central Europe This week’s preliminary first quarter GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe are likely to show that the region’s economic recovery strengthened at the start of the year, in spite of fears of... 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
