Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish PMI may be overly pessimistic At first glance, the sharp fall in Poland’s manufacturing PMI in May suggests that the economy has lost some steam, perhaps due to spillovers from the crisis in neighbouring Ukraine. However, it’s... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian markets rebound as Ukraine concerns take a back seat Russian equities and the ruble have been the region’s best performers over the past month following conciliatory remarks from Russia’s President Putin as well as Petro Poroshenko’s victory in Ukraine... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Strong rally in Russian equities unlikely to last Over the past month, the stock market has performed better in Russia than in any other country included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, as tensions in Ukraine have eased. But the near-15% rally... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Ukraine crisis pushes Russia towards recession The raft of Q1 GDP data released this month showed a growing divergence in the region. The crisis in Ukraine and threat of Western sanctions took a heavy toll on the Russian economy, which seems to be... 23rd May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Russia – China deal unlikely to boost European gas prices Proposed exports of Russian gas to China will have limited impact on the potential supply to the rest of Europe. Indeed, the price of LNG may actually be lower than otherwise as a result of the... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Central Europe likely to outperform Over the next few years, a gradual recovery in economic activity should support rising occupier demand and rental values in most non-euro-zone European commercial property markets. But with high... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Gazprom’s China deal not a game changer for Russia’s economy The benefits to the Russian economy from the $400bn deal signed earlier today between Russia and China are likely to be smaller than most seem to think. Instead, the importance of the deal is largely... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Market may be too quick to price in Russia rate cuts The recent rebound in the ruble has led the market to price in interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) over the coming months. We think this is premature. Leaving aside the fact that... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP data to show strengthening recovery in Central Europe This week’s preliminary first quarter GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe are likely to show that the region’s economic recovery strengthened at the start of the year, in spite of fears of... 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Rents and yields mark time in most markets Evidence that the first quarter’s generally encouraging economic news is providing a boost for non-euro-zone European property markets is patchy and unconvincing. Excluding the UK, only Istanbul... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putin’s shift in tone a small step in the right direction President Putin’s call on pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine to postpone a referendum on independence scheduled for this Sunday has once again raised hopes that a diplomatic resolution to the... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update IMF approves Ukraine deal, but enormous challenges remain The approval by the IMF of its $17bn financial support package for Ukraine is likely to ease concerns that the economy could suffer a near-term crisis, but severe challenges remain. The short-term... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six questions and answers on the Ukraine crisis We have already written extensively on the crisis in Ukraine and its potential economic and market impacts. (The most relevant publications are listed on page 2.) But as the crisis is back in the... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The Ukraine crisis and Russia: five key questions With Russia facing further sanctions from the West over its alleged involvement in the turmoil in the east of Ukraine, in this Focus we answer five key questions about the potential economic and... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank surprises markets with a rate hike An acceleration in inflation, in part due to the recent sharp drop in the ruble, caused Russia’s central bank to hike interest rates by 50bp today. Looking ahead, with inflation likely to remain high... 25th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Unrest in east Ukraine has limited effect on markets Financial markets across Emerging Europe have proved relatively resilient to the recent escalation in political unrest in eastern Ukraine. But at the same time, the recovery from the losses earlier in... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
