Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian activity data flattered by working day effects The pick-up in Russian activity data in September, while encouraging, may owe more to working day effects than to an underlying improvement in growth. The bigger picture is still one of an economy... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian lending slows but no sign of credit crunch… yet Lending conditions in Russia have tightened in recent months, but there is no sign yet that Western sanctions have led to a sharp drop in bank lending to the wider economy or a credit crunch on the... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian labour data suggest weaker growth a structural problem The fallout from the crisis in Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions imposed by Western governments have certainly contributed to the recent weakness of Russia’s economy. But there are ominous signs –... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The ruble’s decline and what it means for Russia The steep fall in the ruble over the past month will affect different parts of the economy in different ways. The government is likely to be one of the major winners. By contrast, consumers are likely... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs point to activity stabilising September’s PMIs suggest that the slowdown in the region’s manufacturing sector may have stabilised towards the end of the third quarter. Encouragingly, the Polish PMI edged up, having fallen for the... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Currency sell-off highlights divisions in rate outlook The sharp sell-off in the Russian ruble and Turkish lira this month couldn’t have come at a worse time for policymakers. Growth is sluggish in both countries, but high inflation and concerns about... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Russia & Ukraine’s gas deal a step in the right direction The potential restart of Russian gas sales to Ukraine is a positive step in relations between the two countries and should help to put downward pressure on the prices of European gas and coal. However... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian economy to remain near-stagnant in 2015 The impact of Western sanctions, a slowdown in the previously resilient consumer sector and, perhaps most importantly, increasingly statist policymaking have led us to revise down our forecasts for... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey comes back into the firing line There has been a broad-based sell-off in Emerging European markets over the past month, but those in Turkey have suffered some of the heaviest losses as a renewed focus on Fed tightening has brought... 26th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the impact of the Ukraine crisis on the Baltics So far at least, the crisis in Ukraine doesn’t seem to have had much of an impact on overall exports from or capital flows to the Baltic States, despite their relatively large ties to Russia. However... 22nd September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy continues to stagnate August’s raft of Russian activity data suggests that the economy continued to stagnate. Growth in the industrial sector slowed, while the slump in investment activity deepened further. What’s more... 17th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Drop in ruble strengthens case for interest rate hike The sharp fall in the ruble over the past week or so reflects a combination of factors, including the drop in oil prices, continued capital flight in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and... 16th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia keeps interest rates on hold, but hikes still on the cards The Russian central bank left interest rates unchanged today, having raised rates by 250bps over the firstsix months of the year. But with inflation set to rise further over the coming months and... 12th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone more to blame for Q2 slowdown than Ukraine The slowdown in Central and South Eastern Europe in the second quarter has raised concerns about the region’s exposure to the crisis in Ukraine. In this Watch, we dig deeper into the GDP data to see... 11th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Coal prices to fall further as environmental regulations bite The recent sharp falls in imports of coal by China and consumption of coal in the US are just the latest evidence that environmental measures enacted over the last year have begun to reduce demand in... 9th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Emerging Europe Economic Outlook The recovery in Emerging Europe has fizzled out in recent months and we think growth will be sluggish over the coming quarters. The crisis in Ukraine presents one headwind, particularly for Russia... 5th September 2014 · 1 min read
