Global Economics Update Russia still the biggest loser from Western sanctions The direct effects on the European economy of any sanctions-related disruption to trade with Russiawould not be trivial but the impact via energy markets may be less than many fear. Sentiment could... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The implications of the latest twist in the Ukraine crisis Russia is a vital source of global supply of a wide range of commodities, from energy to metals andgrains. At the time of writing, the likely repercussions of the shooting down of a civilian aircraft... 18th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fresh sanctions add headwinds to Russia’s growth outlook June’s activity data have dented hopes of a sustained recovery in the Russian economy. A meaningful turnaround will require a significant rise in investment. But the latest round of sanctions on... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Signs of stabilisation in the BRIC economies Growth in the emerging world’s largest economies, the BRICs, appears to have stabilised afterslowing at the start of the year. The official data from China show GDP growthedging up in Q2 on the back... 17th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Four questions about the BRICS Bank and swap deal After years of discussion, the five BRICS nations yesterday agreed to establish a development bank and a framework of currency swaps, dubbed the “Contingency Reserve Arrangement” (CRA). In this Update... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A more challenging second half of the year The latest batch of activity data suggests that growth in Central Europe may be losing steam. Coming alongside signs that the German economy is also losing momentum, this suggests that the pace of the... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Contagion from Bulgarian bank run limited The latest activity data suggest that growth across Emerging Europe has strengthened in recent months, but there are a few clouds on the horizon. For a start, the latest data from Germany, the largest... 30th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian economy on course for another disappointing quarter May’s raft of Russian activity data suggests that, following a weak Q1, the economy hasn’t made a meaningful recovery in Q2. The rebound in the manufacturing sector has continued to gain momentum, but... 20th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recovery in Russian markets continues Emerging European equities have rebounded over the past month, driven by Russian stocks. However, this has merely recouped losses seen earlier in the year. Looking ahead, we’re relatively downbeat on... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia leaves rates on hold as another "gas war" looms The Central Bank of Russia was never likely to alter interest rates at its meeting today – while the economy remains weak, high and rising inflation limits the room for policy support. Meanwhile, news... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack What next for Russia's financial markets? We do not think the recent outperformance of Russia’s financial markets and currency will last. Indeed, the ruble has already dropped back slightly over the past week or so. There are three key... 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Central and Eastern Europe: competitive again The pre-crisis boom years in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) led to an erosion of external competitiveness which is one reason why the recovery from the 2008-09 crisis has been so sluggish. But... 11th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More to Turkey’s rebalancing than meets the eye Turkish Q1 GDP data due tomorrow are likely toreinforce optimism in the markets that the economyis undergoing a smooth rebalancing, with netexports taking over from domestic demand as themain driver... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The ECB and what it means for Central & Eastern Europe Yesterday’s move by the ECB is another reason to think that monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will remain loose for longer than most people expect. However, the impact of the ECB’s... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Weak growth masks diverging prospects Growth in Emerging Europe is set to remain sluggish over the next couple of years, due in large part to continued weakness in the region’s largest economy, Russia, and a looming slowdown in the region... 4th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Less to Russia’s industry rebound than meets the eye The rebound in Russian industrial production has taken many, including us, by surprise and has been interpreted by some as a sign that a weaker ruble has started to provide support to industry... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
