Commodities Update How could the second China – Russia gas deal impact prices? Additional proposed gas exports from Russia to China are unlikely to have a major impact on European gas prices. We see a greater threat arising from the potential long-term price impact of Europe’s... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Moscow capital values have further to fall The decline in Russia’s macroeconomic outlook suggests that Moscow occupier demand will fall further. With an influx of new supply also undermining rental values, and property yields set to come under... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3), Pol. CPI (Oct.) & Turkey Current Acc. (Sep.) Russia’s economy performed better than even we had expected in Q3, but this predates the most recent slump in oil prices. We still expect the economy to slip into recession next year. Elsewhere... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Crisis in Russia to weigh on regional growth Growth across Emerging Europe has slowed in recent months and we expect it to remain soft over the coming quarters. The economies of Central Europe will continue to be held back by weakness in Germany... 12th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Russia’s troubles to have limited global fall-out Russia’s economic prospects are going from bad to worse, but barring a major escalation of geopolitical tensions, the effects beyond central and eastern Europe should be modest. The world’s largest... 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why a weaker ruble spells trouble for Russia’s banks There are relatively few parallels between the 1998 ruble crisis and the present crisis, but one point in common is that some of the greatest vulnerabilities to a weaker currency lie in the banking... 10th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank to be forced into further rate hikes The continued slide in the ruble is likely to force the Central Bank of Russia into making a one-off intervention in the currency market, permitted under its new exchange rate policy, rather more... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Price Inflation (October) Russian inflation accelerated to a three-year high of 8.3% y/y in October and, with the lagged effects of a weaker ruble still to come through, a further rise towards 9% y/y is likely over the coming... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Russia & Ukraine opt for treaties over tricks The deal between Russia and Ukraine should ensure that gas supplies flow freely to Europe this winter and should also reduce the geopolitical risk premium currently in European gas and coal prices. 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis spurs central bank response Russia’s central bank had to deliver two things at today’s Board meeting in order to stem the slide in the ruble: an aggressive hike in interest rates and an immediate overhaul of the current exchange... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis pushes central bank towards heavy FX intervention The Russian ruble has rallied by around 3% against the dollar today seemingly as a result of central bank intervention on the foreign exchange market 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Wheat prices to remain low despite weather conditions in Russia Amid reports that Russia’s autumn-sown crop is heading into winter in worse condition than five years ago, which preceded a slump in output and saw global wheat prices double, we caution against... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis points to larger-than-expected rate hikes The continued slide in the ruble over the past few weeks has raised the prospect that Russia is in the grip of a self-fulfilling currency crisis in which the mere anticipation of currency weakness... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed weakness in Germany hits Central Europe The past month has brought further evidence of weaker growth in Central Europe. Admittedly, August’s particularly disappointing data appear to have been distorted by variations in summer holidays. And... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Two sides to Russia’s investment challenge The recent fall in the oil price has underlined the perils of Russia’s over-reliance on its energy sector and the corresponding need to develop non-energy sources of growth. Part of the route back to... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus How and why lower oil prices matter for Russia’s economy The fall in oil prices over the past month or so poses another headwind for Russia’s struggling economy. The drop in prices so far is unlikely to have a major bearing on the immediate outlook –... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
