Global Economics Update Winners and (even bigger) losers from lower oil prices Most countries (and the world as a whole) should be better off as a result of the slump in oil prices, including key emerging markets such as China and India. Of the major advanced economies, Japan is... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the Russian crisis push the euro-zone into recession? The euro-zone’s direct trade and financial links with Russia are relatively weak. Nonetheless, even a modest negative impact at a time when the region is already facing renewed internal problems could... 17th December 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The global impact of Russia’s crisis (revisited) The dramatic escalation of Russia’s crisis over the past twenty four hours is clearly not good news for the world economy. Nonetheless, both trade and financial links between Russia and the rest of... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the crisis in Russia mean for CEE? The crisis in Russia, coming alongside renewed weakness in the euro-zone, adds to the headwinds facing Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Thankfully, the threat of potentially explosive financial... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for Russia? Last night’s emergency interest rate hike in Russia has raised more questions that it has provided answers. Part of the renewed pressure on the ruble today stems from oil prices, which have fallen... 16th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Will the ruble’s collapse trigger capital controls in Russia? The renewed sharp falls in the ruble today will fuel speculation that the authorities could resort to increasingly unorthodox measures to help stabilise the currency, including capital controls. But... 15th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR delivers another large rate hike – more to come The 100bp hike in Russian interest rates today was the minimum the central bank (CBR) had to deliver given the recent slide in the ruble . With the ruble likely to remain under pressure and inflation... 11th December 2014 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Prime yields to fall for another three years The stance of monetary policy is likely to stay exceptionally loose for the foreseeable future. And coupled with low inflation, we expect bond yields to stay lower for longer. Therefore, it seems... 8th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Price Inflation (November) Russian inflation accelerated sharply to 9.1% y/y in November and, with the ruble falling further over the past few weeks, it is on course to continue rising over the coming months. We think that... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s 2015 budget assumptions already look out of date The government budget for 2015, that was signed by President Putin today, is based on a range of outdated assumptions. Based on current spending plans, we reckon the government is likely to run a... 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of the ruble’s latest tumble The sharp fall in the ruble over the past few days points to another large increase in interest rates when the central bank’s board meets next week. But the fact that the authorities have so far... 1st December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble sell-off eases, while Ukraine’s bonds slump A combination of interest rate hikes, a move towards a fully floating ruble and steps to limit the provision of ruble liquidity appear to have arrested the slump in Russia’s currency. Elsewhere, the... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Retail Sales, Investment & Ind. Prod. (Oct.) Russian activity data for last month suggest that the economy withstood the initial sharp drop in the price of oil better than some had feared. But even so, the big picture is that growth is still... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia: slowdown in consumer spending is here to stay One of the most striking aspects of the recent slowdown in the Russian economy is that the previously resilient consumer sector has weakened sharply. And while this may in part be a result of... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How implausible is a Russian government debt default? The recent fall in oil prices, coupled with the drop in the ruble, has revived memories of 1998 in Russia, when similar developments culminated in a government debt default. The state of Russia’s... 18th November 2014 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Russia pulls down Emerging European property indicators Economic indicators generally pointed to slower growth across both Western European and Emerging European economies in Q3. That helps to explain why occupier market data were soft, with rents... 14th November 2014 · 1 min read
