Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Price Inflation (October) Russian inflation accelerated to a three-year high of 8.3% y/y in October and, with the lagged effects of a weaker ruble still to come through, a further rise towards 9% y/y is likely over the coming... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Russia & Ukraine opt for treaties over tricks The deal between Russia and Ukraine should ensure that gas supplies flow freely to Europe this winter and should also reduce the geopolitical risk premium currently in European gas and coal prices. 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis spurs central bank response Russia’s central bank had to deliver two things at today’s Board meeting in order to stem the slide in the ruble: an aggressive hike in interest rates and an immediate overhaul of the current exchange... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis pushes central bank towards heavy FX intervention The Russian ruble has rallied by around 3% against the dollar today seemingly as a result of central bank intervention on the foreign exchange market 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Wheat prices to remain low despite weather conditions in Russia Amid reports that Russia’s autumn-sown crop is heading into winter in worse condition than five years ago, which preceded a slump in output and saw global wheat prices double, we caution against... 29th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis points to larger-than-expected rate hikes The continued slide in the ruble over the past few weeks has raised the prospect that Russia is in the grip of a self-fulfilling currency crisis in which the mere anticipation of currency weakness... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed weakness in Germany hits Central Europe The past month has brought further evidence of weaker growth in Central Europe. Admittedly, August’s particularly disappointing data appear to have been distorted by variations in summer holidays. And... 24th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Two sides to Russia’s investment challenge The recent fall in the oil price has underlined the perils of Russia’s over-reliance on its energy sector and the corresponding need to develop non-energy sources of growth. Part of the route back to... 22nd October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus How and why lower oil prices matter for Russia’s economy The fall in oil prices over the past month or so poses another headwind for Russia’s struggling economy. The drop in prices so far is unlikely to have a major bearing on the immediate outlook –... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian activity data flattered by working day effects The pick-up in Russian activity data in September, while encouraging, may owe more to working day effects than to an underlying improvement in growth. The bigger picture is still one of an economy... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian lending slows but no sign of credit crunch… yet Lending conditions in Russia have tightened in recent months, but there is no sign yet that Western sanctions have led to a sharp drop in bank lending to the wider economy or a credit crunch on the... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian labour data suggest weaker growth a structural problem The fallout from the crisis in Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions imposed by Western governments have certainly contributed to the recent weakness of Russia’s economy. But there are ominous signs –... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The ruble’s decline and what it means for Russia The steep fall in the ruble over the past month will affect different parts of the economy in different ways. The government is likely to be one of the major winners. By contrast, consumers are likely... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs point to activity stabilising September’s PMIs suggest that the slowdown in the region’s manufacturing sector may have stabilised towards the end of the third quarter. Encouragingly, the Polish PMI edged up, having fallen for the... 1st October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Currency sell-off highlights divisions in rate outlook The sharp sell-off in the Russian ruble and Turkish lira this month couldn’t have come at a worse time for policymakers. Growth is sluggish in both countries, but high inflation and concerns about... 30th September 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Russia & Ukraine’s gas deal a step in the right direction The potential restart of Russian gas sales to Ukraine is a positive step in relations between the two countries and should help to put downward pressure on the prices of European gas and coal. However... 29th September 2014 · 1 min read
