Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Occupier and investment indicators fall sharply in Moscow A softening of economic growth in many countries across both Emerging Europe and non-euro-zone Western Europe helps to explain the relative lack of action in terms of rental movements in Q4. The big... 18th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What has been behind capital flight from Russia? It has been suggested in some quarters that huge capital outflows from Russia last year were largely due to external debt repayments and thus should not be seen as a major cause for concern. But while... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Russia’s crisis to deepen but contagion to remain limited The deepening downturn in Russia will depress aggregate growth across Emerging Europe this year but the outlook for most countries will be shaped more by developments in the euro-zone than it will by... 17th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Don’t expect China, Russia or the US to save Greece Suggestions that China or Russia might come to Greece’s rescue are wishful thinking as it is not in the economic or political interests of either country to do so. Nor is it likely that the US will... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Russia doomed? It’s widely acknowledged by now that the Russian economy is set for a deep recession this year and we think a fall in output of around 5% is likely. This would be similar in scale to the contraction... 12th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Rep: Euro-zone clouds outlook, policy to be eased further Renewed weakness in Germany and the crisis in Russia will weigh on the Czech Republic’s key export sector in the coming quarters. However, the conditions are in place for domestic demand to strengthen... 10th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Oil prices to determine interest rate moves in Russia The fact that the ruble has strengthened since Russia’s surprise cut in interest rates last Friday is more a reflection of the subsequent rebound in global oil prices than it is an endorsement by... 6th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jan.) Inflation in Russia jumped to a five-year high of 15.0% y/y last month, as the effects of the sharp fall in the ruble towards the end of last year led to a surge in import prices. The big rise in... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global growth rate set to recover After slowing in the second half of last year, global growth is likely to gather pace again in the coming quarters. Admittedly, the drop in oil prices since last summer has prompted energy companies... 5th February 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2014) Preliminary annual 2014 Russian GDP data, which showed that the economy grew by 0.6% over the year as a whole, are consistent with a small year-on-year fall in GDP in the final quarter of last year... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s surprise rate cut a response to political pressures Today’s surprise decision by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) to cut its one-week repo rate by 200bp, to 15.0%, reflects political pressures rather than economic reality. The decision was premised on... 30th January 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How much further will Moscow rental values fall? Despite a fall in USD-denominated Moscow all-property rents of 16% in Q4, currency depreciation means that rents rose in ruble terms by 19%. That seems unsustainable. Short-term uncertainty... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How big a buffer do Russia’s FX reserves provide? We’re often asked about the extent to which Russia’s sizeable foreign exchange reserves provide a buffer against lower oil prices and capital flight and for how long they might last. There are lots of... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) & anti-crisis measures The key point that stands out in December’s activity data for Russia is the sharp jump in retail sales growth. However, this reflects panic buying as the ruble collapsed at the end of last year. Hence... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble crisis to force larger Russian bank recapitalisations The collapse in the ruble appears to have wiped out a large chunk of the Russian banking sector’s capital and we think the government will need to expand its current recapitalisation plans... 26th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian government starting to face up to fiscal realities Today’s meeting between President Putin and government ministers to discuss anti-crisis measures and budget amendments suggests that the authorities are finally starting to acknowledge the new... 21st January 2015 · 1 min read
