Emerging Europe Economics Update Trump, Russia and the future of sanctions Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election has raised hopes in some quarters that economic sanctions on Russia will be lifted. As things stand, this is far from certain. But even if... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Oct.) Russian inflation once again surprised on the downside, falling to 6.1% y/y in October. This is unlikely to cause the central bank to change its mind, and interest rates will almost definitely be kept... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) October’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that the recovery in the Russian economy resumed at the start of Q4 after a disappointing Q3. The surveys also provided early signs that the Turkish economy is... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank hawkish, but large easing cycle still looms The Central Bank of Russia’s statement accompanying its decision to keep the policy rate at 10.0% today was predictably hawkish and supports our view that monetary easing will be gradual. But the... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) Activity data for September suggest that the Russian recovery may have stalled in the third quarter, which was largely the result of weakness in the industrial sector. Overall, we think that GDP... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Sep.) The larger-than-expected fall in Russian inflation to 6.4% y/y in September is unlikely to have any impact on the outlook for monetary policy over the rest of this year, but it does reinforce our view... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How much of a concern are Russia’s public finances? The fall in oil prices has caused a considerable deterioration in Russia’s budget position, forcing the government to dip into its oil reserves. In this Update, we answer six key questions on the... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) Russian activity data for August suggest that the economy continued to pull out of its slump, albeit very slowly. The recovery is still being driven by industry, but there are no signs of improvement... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update United Russia’s election victory reinforces Putin’s grip on power The sweeping victory for United Russia in Sunday’s parliamentary vote reinforces the view that President Putin’s grip on power hasn’t been shaken by two years of recession. The direction of policy is... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish Russian MPC still likely to cut The surprisingly hawkish comments by the Russian central bank Governor at this afternoon’s post-MPC meeting press-conference mean that policy easing is likely to be more gradual than we previously... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation expectations aren’t a barrier to rate cuts in Russia Russia’s Central Bank has put increasing emphasis on the importance of inflation expectations in making monetary policy decisions, but it seems that these tend to be a lagging, rather than a leading... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) The fall in Russian inflation to 6.9% y/y in August, coming alongside last month’s drop in household inflation expectations, reinforces our view that the central bank will resume its easing cycle... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update What to make of Russia and Saudi Arabia’s statement on oil The statement by Russia and Saudi Arabia earlier today that the two countries have agreed to work together to try to stabilise the oil market did very little to justify the almost 6% surge in oil... 5th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian markets come under pressure once again It’s been a very calm month for financial markets in most of Emerging Europe. One exception, however, is Ukraine where renewed tensions with Russia have caused the currency to weaken and dollar bond... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) Russian activity data for July suggest that the economy weakened a touch at the start of Q3, but we still think it’s likely that the recovery will resume over the rest of the year. Indeed, there was... 17th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2016) The -0.6% y/y fall in Russia GDP in Q2 is, by our estimates, consistent with a modest rise in output over the quarter. We expect a gradual recovery to continue over the coming quarters. 11th August 2016 · 1 min read
