Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank continues to strike cautious note The statement by Russia’s central bank following its decision to leave its one-week repo rate unchanged earlier today was decidedly cautious and reinforces our view that any policy easing is only... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Russia’s industry unlikely to reap benefit of weak ruble In theory, at least, Russian manufacturing should be among the biggest beneficiaries from a weaker ruble. However, a weak currency alone is unlikely to trigger an industrial turnaround in Russia... 4th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jan.) The usual raft of activity data for January showed that, following an awful December, conditions in the Russian economy improved at the start of this year. Encouragingly, there are early signs that... 18th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Winners and losers from a weaker ruble The sharp fall in the ruble over the past year or so has eased some of the pressure on Russia’s government finances but we suspect that structural problems will prevent the wider economy from fully... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jan.) The sharp fall in Russian inflation in January can be explained by the fact that the effects of the collapse in the ruble at the end of 2014 and start of 2015 fell out of the annual comparison... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia to spend another year in recession The recent run of weak data, coupled with the latest fall in oil prices, has prompted us to revise our forecasts for Russia. We now expect the economy to contract by 1.3% this year and grow by just 0... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of Russia’s privatisation plans The recent talk of a new wave of privatisation in Russia has attracted much attention, but we suspect that there is less to the proposed plans than meets the eye. While these may temporarily improve... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC takes a hawkish view as ruble falls The Russian central bank kept its benchmark one-week repo rate on hold at 11.00% earlier today, but the markedly more hawkish tone of the accompanying statement makes it clear that rate cuts – which... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2015) & Activity Data (Dec.) Preliminary Russian GDP data, which showed that the economy contracted by 3.7% over 2015 as a whole, are consistent with a drop in GDP of around 3.5% y/y in Q4. Worryingly, December’s activity figures... 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does the latest fall in the ruble mean for Russia? The latest drop in the ruble to below 80/$ creates several headaches for policymakers and means that the chances of a cut in interest rates over the next month or so, which were already slim, have now... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to make of Russia’s fiscal plans There appears to be a great deal of confusion surrounding Russia’s fiscal plans for this year – including a mooted 10% cut in government spending that the cabinet has reportedly agreed this week. In... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia aside, oil drop will benefit Emerging Europe The renewed slide in oil prices has been an important factor behind the latest deterioration in sentiment towards EMs over recent weeks. However, with the obvious exception of Russia, most countries... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Final CPI (Dec.) The fall in Russian inflation in December to 12.9% y/y provided the first clear sign that the impact of the 2014 ruble crisis has started to unwind. And we think that inflation is likely to decline... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: what to expect in 2016 So far as Russia is concerned, the best that can be said for 2016 is that it should be a year in which the economy stabilises. Even a marked rebound in oil prices would be unlikely to spur a return to... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Falling oil prices add to headwinds facing Russia’s economy The latest fall in oil prices has added to the uncertainty over the outlook for Russia’s economy. In this Update we revisit the mechanisms through which lower oil prices affect Russia and outline what... 21st December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia & Poland Activity Data (Nov.) The latest batch of Russian activity data, released today, show that the recovery slowed last month and, worryingly, this came before the latest fall in oil prices. In contrast to Russia, November’s... 17th December 2015 · 1 min read
