Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Feb.) The fall in Russian inflation, which reached a five-year low of 4.6% y/y last month, has further to run and we think the headline rate will reach the central bank’s target by mid-year. Falling... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia entering an era of low inflation The decline in Russian inflation has further to run and we think it will fall below the central bank’s target in the coming months. The central bank has adopted an extremely hawkish posture, but this... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why does Russian inflation keep on surprising on the downside? Russia’s weekly CPI figures have become increasingly misleading, which appears to have resulted in a tendency for forecasters to underestimate how quickly headline inflation would ease. Looking deeper... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What next for Russia’s economy? Russia’s recent recession has opened up a sizeable output gap, one consequence of which is that GDP growth in the next couple of years could be a little stronger than most expect. However, the economy... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A strong start to the year The latest data suggest that the economies of Emerging Europe got off to a good start to the year. Our regional aggregates of the manufacturing PMIs and the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jan.) The full complement of Russian activity data for January, released today, suggests that the economy probably grew by around 0.3% y/y at the start of this year, which appears to be in line with growth... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What do Russia’s revised industrial data tell us? Revisions to Russia’s industrial production data, which show that the manufacturing sector’s performance in 2015-16 was much better than previously thought, mean it now looks like the economy returned... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Does the rally in the ruble have further to run? There doesn’t appear to be any strong justification for the 5% appreciation of the ruble against the dollar this month and we think the currency will revert to its historic relationship with global... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jan.) The further fall in Russian inflation last month, to 5.0% y/y, supports our view that, despite the central bank’s recent hawkish rhetoric, interest rates will be lowered substantially this year. 6th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank takes hawkish turn, but cuts on the cards The hawkish statement by the Central Bank of Russia that accompanied today’s decision to leave the policy rate on hold has prompted us to revise up our end-year interest rate forecast (to 8.25%... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Dissecting Russia’s new fiscal rule Russia’s new “fiscal rule”, which takes effect this week, is unusual insofar as it governs how the budget deficit is financed, rather than anchoring either the size of the deficit or the scale of... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2016) The preliminary estimate of Russian 2016 GDP, which showed a small contraction of 0.2% over the year as a whole, was a bit better than expected and is consistent with the idea that the economy... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe indicate that the region’s manufacturing sectors made an impressive start to the year. The surveys suggest that industrial production growth in Central Europe... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) Russia’s construction and retail sectors suffered a fresh slump in December but, overall, it looks like the economy expanded in year-on-year terms in Q4 (by around 0.3%) for the first time since 2014. 25th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update C&SEE banks in better shape, but concerns about Turkey The health of banking sectors in Central and South Eastern Europe (C&SEE) has improved significantly in recent years. And they are now much less exposed to a fresh eruption of financial stress in the... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rising oil prices support Russia market rally The rise in oil prices following the agreement by OPEC and other oil producers to cut output has helped Russian equities and the ruble to outperform for the second consecutive month. Elsewhere, Polish... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
