Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC pauses easing cycle, but further rate cuts loom Slightly stronger-than-expected inflation figures, coupled with the renewed fall in the ruble, prompted the Russian central bank to pause its easing cycle today, but we think inflation should resume... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) Russia’s activity data for June suggest that output probably contracted at the same pace in Q2 as it did in Q1. Industry has remained the key driver of the economy, but this has been offset by weak... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What will Russia’s recovery look like? The Russian economy is through the acute phase of its crisis and a recovery should begin over the coming quarters. However, it will be extremely weak. We expect the economy to stagnate over 2016 as a... 11th July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the slump in Russia’s construction sector? Early signs suggest that Russia’s economic recovery may have stalled in the second quarter due largely to renewed weakness in the construction sector. This seems to be the result of financial problems... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (May) Today’s weaker-than-expected Russian activity data for May provide early signs that the fall in GDP in Q2 may be larger than in Q1. Consumer-facing sectors continued to bear the brunt of Russia’s... 20th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC resumes easing cycle The decision by Russia’s central bank to cut its benchmark one-week repo rate by 50bp to 10.50% today was a close one but, having decided to start easing policy once again we think that interest rates... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revisiting the EU’s sanctions on Russia The EU’s sanctions on Russia are due to expire in July and, while it is most likely that they will be renewed, it is possible that this comes alongside a broad timetable for scaling them back subject... 9th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (May) Russian inflation remained unchanged at 7.3% y/y in May for the third consecutive month, but it looks like it is on course to edge up over the coming months. As a result, we think that the central... 6th June 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2016) The shallower-than-expected 1.2% y/y fall in Russia’s GDP in the first quarter confirms that the acute phase of the crisis is now over. And the annual growth rate could return to the positive... 16th May 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian MPC more dovish, but rate cuts still some way off The statement by the Russian central bank following its decision to leave the one-week repo rate on hold today was dovish, but less so than what the markets seem to have expected. The Council’s... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank can ride the wave of surplus liquidity The Russian government’s use of its oil funds to finance the budget deficit will cause the monetary base to expand and is likely to push the banking sector from having a deficit of liquidity to a... 21st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) Russia’s activity data for March were weaker than in February, as expected, but the broad trend is still that the slump in the economy is easing. GDP probably contracted by around 2.0% y/y over Q1 as... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q4) The release of Russian Q4 GDP data today provides further evidence that the worst of the recession is now behind us. And monthly activity data suggest that the slump in activity continued to ease in... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble rebound leads market rally in Emerging Europe Financial markets across Emerging Europe have recouped some of their earlier losses this month. The Russian ruble has been the region’s star performer, posting the largest gains among all EM... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What’s behind the slowdown in capital outflows from Russia? Capital outflows from Russia have slowed markedly in recent quarters and the nature of these outflows has changed too – they are now driven by Russian companies repaying their external debts, rather... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Feb.) The improvement in last month’s Russian activity data was flattered by working day effects due to the leap year. But even so, the figures provide further evidence that the economy has passed the worst... 21st March 2016 · 1 min read
