Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s recovery to be stronger than consensus expects Despite a gradual shift in the consensus over the past couple of months, we still think that markets are underestimating the extent to which inflation and interest rates in Russia are likely to fall... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional recovery takes hold First quarter GDP estimates for Emerging Europe published this month beat expectations across the board and suggest that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a three-year high of 2.3% y/y... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) The better-than-expected batch of Russian activity data for April indicate that the economy probably grew by 0.7-0.8% y/y at the start of Q2, up from 0.5% y/y in Q1. 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2017) First quarter GDP data from Russia were a touch stronger than expected and are all the more encouraging given that calendar effects will have pulled down the growth figure for Q1. Our GDP forecasts... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Apr.) The further fall in Russian inflation last month – and in core inflation in particular – reinforces our view that the central bank’s easing cycle has much further to run. We expect another interest... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian easing cycle has much further to run The Russian central bank’s 50bp interest rate cut to 9.25% today was larger than most (but not us) expected and, taken together with the relatively dovish tone of the statement, supports our view that... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Fragile recoveries in Russia and Turkey The latest activity data from Russia and Turkey suggest that both economies lost momentum in Q1. Our GDP Trackers indicate that output in Russia stagnated in annual terms (following an expansion of 0... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Improving economy bodes well for Moscow real estate With the Russian economy returning to growth, a gradual improvement in Moscow occupier markets should support a further recovery in investment volumes, pushing prime yields down. 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central & Eastern Europe: a strong Q1 The latest surveys and monthly activity figures suggest that the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) made a strong start to the year. And Poland appears to have seen one of its fastest... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) The improvement in the Russian activity data for March confirmed that the slump shown in the February figures was a blip. That said, weakness earlier in the quarter means that year-on-year GDP growth... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on what the US airstrike in Syria means for Russia Russian equities and its currency have fallen following US airstrikes on Syria early this morning, reflecting fading hopes that US-Russia relations will normalise and that sanctions might be lifted... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Mar.) The further decline in Russian inflation last month, and in core inflation in particular, means another interest rate cut looks likely at the next central bank Board meeting later this month. As... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s data revisions: slip-up or step-up? Recent revisions to Russia’s economic data have drawn scorn and generated confusion but, while the country’s statistics are far from perfect, the changes do appear to be a step in the right direction. 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q4 2016) The Russian economy’s return to positive year-on-year growth in Q4, of 0.3% y/y, was driven by stronger inventory investment and a shallower fall in consumer spending. These trends are likely to... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank starts slow but lengthy easing cycle Having cut the one-week repo rate by 25bp earlier in the day, Russia’s central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, used her post-meeting press conference to stress that further monetary easing will be... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Feb.) February’s weak batch of Russian activity data were distorted by working-day effects, and we think the underlying picture is still one of a gradual recovery. 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
