Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook CEE yields to fall faster and for longer As in the euro-zone, monetary policy is set to stay loose in the rest of Europe keeping real estate attractive. That said, the current phase of falling yields is set to end in 2019 in Western European... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) Last month’s PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that growth in the region’s manufacturing sector strengthened between Q3 and Q4. At a country level, the surveys suggest that Russia’s recovery is... 1st December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian markets outperform after Trump victory Hopes that Donald Trump’s election victory will bring about the end of economic and financial sanctions on Russia caused the country’s financial markets to outperform those in other emerging markets... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Turkey’s vulnerabilities come home to roost The risks posed by Turkey’s heavy dependence on foreign capital inflows came to a head this month, with the lira falling the furthest of any EM currency in November. This has been driven in part by... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Stuck in the slow lane Having slowed in Q3, we expect growth in Emerging Europe to recover over the course of the next year as Russia continues to pull out of recession and investment in the Central European economies... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Oct.) According to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI), global primary aluminium output rose by 1.5% y/y in October, boosted by higher y/y production in India, China and Russia. 21st November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Oct.) October’s activity data showed that the Russian economy’s slow recovery continued at the start of Q4, driven by improvements in industry. But the fresh downturn in retail spending confirmed that... 18th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3 2016) The 0.4% y/y contraction in Russia GDP in Q3 appears to be consistent, by our estimates, with a shallow fall in GDP in q/q terms. We do, however, expect the economy to return to positive (albeit... 14th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from the Q3 GDP data The batch of preliminary Q3 GDP figures due next week in Emerging Europe is likely to make fairly disappointing reading. While growth in Central Europe probably remained strong, we think it still... 11th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Trump, Russia and the future of sanctions Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election has raised hopes in some quarters that economic sanctions on Russia will be lifted. As things stand, this is far from certain. But even if... 10th November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Oct.) Russian inflation once again surprised on the downside, falling to 6.1% y/y in October. This is unlikely to cause the central bank to change its mind, and interest rates will almost definitely be kept... 3rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) October’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that the recovery in the Russian economy resumed at the start of Q4 after a disappointing Q3. The surveys also provided early signs that the Turkish economy is... 1st November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank hawkish, but large easing cycle still looms The Central Bank of Russia’s statement accompanying its decision to keep the policy rate at 10.0% today was predictably hawkish and supports our view that monetary easing will be gradual. But the... 28th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) Activity data for September suggest that the Russian recovery may have stalled in the third quarter, which was largely the result of weakness in the industrial sector. Overall, we think that GDP... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Sep.) The larger-than-expected fall in Russian inflation to 6.4% y/y in September is unlikely to have any impact on the outlook for monetary policy over the rest of this year, but it does reinforce our view... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How much of a concern are Russia’s public finances? The fall in oil prices has caused a considerable deterioration in Russia’s budget position, forcing the government to dip into its oil reserves. In this Update, we answer six key questions on the... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
