Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jul.) The sharper-than-expected fall in Russian inflation last month means that the central bank, having paused its easing cycle last week, looks set to cut interest rates at next month’s Board meeting. 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that the recovery in Russia’s economy continued at the start of Q3, but provided further evidence that growth in the rest of the region... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth recovered in Q2, set to hold up well Data published this week suggest that global economic growth almost certainly picked up a bit in Q2. We expect it to remain fairly rapid for the next year or two, even as China’s economy loses steam. 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: monetary easing cycle to resume in coming months The Russian central bank’s decision to pause its easing cycle was motivated by last month’s higher-than-expected inflation outturn. But we expect inflation to fall back to the central bank’s target... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe: inflation eases, but not for long The scale of the decline in inflation in Central Europe over the past month has taken many by surprise and reinforced expectations in the financial markets that monetary policy will remain very loose... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Will EM equities’ rapid ascent continue? We expect EM equities to rise this year and next, but not at anything like the pace that they have done so far in 2017. The MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index has returned around 20% so far this year... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) Russian activity data for June suggest that the economy grew by 1.5% y/y over Q2 as a whole. That would be the fastest pace of GDP growth since 2013 and supports our view that growth both this year... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: New fiscal measures don’t go far enough The change of Romania’s government late last month has prompted a shift in the direction of fiscal policy from loosening to tightening. But the new administration has struggled to put together a... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM credit bubble is now (mostly) a China story The past couple of weeks have seen renewed concerns about credit risks in emerging economies. The key point that has been missed in much of the analysis, however, is that credit bubbles have begun to... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jun.) The sharper-than-expected rise in Russian inflation last month, to 4.4% y/y, was driven by an increase in fruit and vegetable inflation. Core inflation fell to a record low. Accordingly, we still... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook As good as it gets The recovery in GDP growth in Emerging Europe is close to peaking and, while we expect the region’s largest economy, Russia, to strengthen over the next 12 months or so, that will be more than offset... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New forecasts for the ruble and lira We have revised our forecasts for the Russian ruble and Turkish lira and we now expect a smaller rise in the ruble versus the dollar by the end of next year. We also now think future falls in the lira... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (May) May’s activity data from Russia were generally a bit stronger than expected and add to evidence that the economic recovery has continued to strengthen in Q2. 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: CBR governor strikes cautious note Relatively hawkish comments from the Russian central bank today appear to be aimed at dampening hopes that the pace of monetary easing might be stepped up. But while the policy rate is likely to be... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: tighter US sanctions would have limited impact Legislation passed by the US Senate to tighten the sanctions regime on Russia provides further reason to think that medium-term growth in Russia will be extremely weak. But the near-term economic... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (May) Russian headline inflation was unchanged in May, but the fall in core inflation to below the central bank’s target supports our view that the policy interest rate will be lowered again, from 9.25% to... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
