Europe Commercial Property Update Improving economy bodes well for Moscow real estate With the Russian economy returning to growth, a gradual improvement in Moscow occupier markets should support a further recovery in investment volumes, pushing prime yields down. 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central & Eastern Europe: a strong Q1 The latest surveys and monthly activity figures suggest that the economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) made a strong start to the year. And Poland appears to have seen one of its fastest... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) The improvement in the Russian activity data for March confirmed that the slump shown in the February figures was a blip. That said, weakness earlier in the quarter means that year-on-year GDP growth... 18th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on what the US airstrike in Syria means for Russia Russian equities and its currency have fallen following US airstrikes on Syria early this morning, reflecting fading hopes that US-Russia relations will normalise and that sanctions might be lifted... 7th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Mar.) The further decline in Russian inflation last month, and in core inflation in particular, means another interest rate cut looks likely at the next central bank Board meeting later this month. As... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s data revisions: slip-up or step-up? Recent revisions to Russia’s economic data have drawn scorn and generated confusion but, while the country’s statistics are far from perfect, the changes do appear to be a step in the right direction. 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q4 2016) The Russian economy’s return to positive year-on-year growth in Q4, of 0.3% y/y, was driven by stronger inventory investment and a shallower fall in consumer spending. These trends are likely to... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank starts slow but lengthy easing cycle Having cut the one-week repo rate by 25bp earlier in the day, Russia’s central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, used her post-meeting press conference to stress that further monetary easing will be... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Feb.) February’s weak batch of Russian activity data were distorted by working-day effects, and we think the underlying picture is still one of a gradual recovery. 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Feb.) The fall in Russian inflation, which reached a five-year low of 4.6% y/y last month, has further to run and we think the headline rate will reach the central bank’s target by mid-year. Falling... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia entering an era of low inflation The decline in Russian inflation has further to run and we think it will fall below the central bank’s target in the coming months. The central bank has adopted an extremely hawkish posture, but this... 6th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why does Russian inflation keep on surprising on the downside? Russia’s weekly CPI figures have become increasingly misleading, which appears to have resulted in a tendency for forecasters to underestimate how quickly headline inflation would ease. Looking deeper... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What next for Russia’s economy? Russia’s recent recession has opened up a sizeable output gap, one consequence of which is that GDP growth in the next couple of years could be a little stronger than most expect. However, the economy... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A strong start to the year The latest data suggest that the economies of Emerging Europe got off to a good start to the year. Our regional aggregates of the manufacturing PMIs and the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jan.) The full complement of Russian activity data for January, released today, suggests that the economy probably grew by around 0.3% y/y at the start of this year, which appears to be in line with growth... 22nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What do Russia’s revised industrial data tell us? Revisions to Russia’s industrial production data, which show that the manufacturing sector’s performance in 2015-16 was much better than previously thought, mean it now looks like the economy returned... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
