Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR signals rate cuts still on the cards, despite ruble sell-off The sell-off in the ruble caused the Russian central bank (CBR) to pause its easing cycle today, but the dovish tone of the accompanying statement supports our view that rates are likely to be lowered... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Aluminium price has further to fall The US Treasury’s decision to soften its position on sanctions against Russian aluminium producer, Rusal, has sent the price of aluminium tumbling in the past couple of days. We think that prices will... 25th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Rising tensions boost prices Geopolitical concerns continued to be the main driver of commodities prices this week. In particular, fears that US sanctions could be broadened to include Russian producer, Nornickel, buoyed the... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) Russian activity figures for March were generally quite soft, but it still looks like overall GDP growth picked up to about 2.0% y/y in Q1 from 0.9% y/y in Q4. The turmoil in local financial markets... 18th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Sanctions on Russia send aluminium soaring Geopolitical concerns intensified this week and led to sharp increases in those commodities at risk of disruptions to supply. In particular, the price of aluminium surged following the announcement of... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update PGMs caught up in panic over Russian sanctions The US sanctions against Russia have supported the prices of platinum and palladium this week. However, Russian output is unlikely to be affected. This, coupled with weakening demand fundamentals... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium bears the brunt of US sanctions on Russia Aluminium is the only commodity which has been directly affected by the latest round of sanctions on Russia, but even there we think that the boost to prices will be temporary. Instead, the surge in... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Russian sanctions’ boost to aluminium to be short-lived The sanctions on Russian producer, Rusal, are likely to support aluminium prices in the short term. However, Russian output is unlikely to collapse. What’s more, higher prices will encourage... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble’s fall doesn’t rule out further rate cuts The sharp fall in the Russian ruble today has raised the risk that the central bank pauses its easing cycle when it meets later this month. The situation is in a state of flux and the outlook for... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s sanction sell-off and the economic impact The US sanctions imposed on Russia last Friday have caused turmoil in Russia’s markets today and financial conditions have tightened as a result. But at this stage it doesn’t look like there will be a... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Mar.) The rise in Russian inflation, to 2.4% y/y, last month confirms that the headline rate has passed its trough and we expect it to drift up over the rest of the year as food inflation strengthens. But... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s easing cycle has much further to run Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina gave little away at today’s post-meeting press conference about the future path for interest rates, but her overall tone suggests that there’s scope for... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Feb.) Russian activity figures for February were generally a bit weaker than expected, but even so it looks like the economy is on course to grow by about 1.5-1.8% y/y in Q1, up from about 1.0% y/y in Q4... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and the sanctions threat The fall in Russia’s external liabilities over the past few years has reduced the extent to which its economy might be adversely affected by the imposition of additional financial sanctions. By the... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putin 4.0: what to look out for Vladimir Putin’s landslide victory in yesterday’s presidential election has barely caused a ripple in local markets. The focus will now turn to the appointment of a new cabinet, which may provide... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Feb.) Russian inflation figures for February confirmed that underlying price pressures remain weak and another cut in the central bank’s policy interest rate at the next Board meeting later this month is... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
