Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania: New fiscal measures don’t go far enough The change of Romania’s government late last month has prompted a shift in the direction of fiscal policy from loosening to tightening. But the new administration has struggled to put together a... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM credit bubble is now (mostly) a China story The past couple of weeks have seen renewed concerns about credit risks in emerging economies. The key point that has been missed in much of the analysis, however, is that credit bubbles have begun to... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jun.) The sharper-than-expected rise in Russian inflation last month, to 4.4% y/y, was driven by an increase in fruit and vegetable inflation. Core inflation fell to a record low. Accordingly, we still... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook As good as it gets The recovery in GDP growth in Emerging Europe is close to peaking and, while we expect the region’s largest economy, Russia, to strengthen over the next 12 months or so, that will be more than offset... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update New forecasts for the ruble and lira We have revised our forecasts for the Russian ruble and Turkish lira and we now expect a smaller rise in the ruble versus the dollar by the end of next year. We also now think future falls in the lira... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (May) May’s activity data from Russia were generally a bit stronger than expected and add to evidence that the economic recovery has continued to strengthen in Q2. 20th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: CBR governor strikes cautious note Relatively hawkish comments from the Russian central bank today appear to be aimed at dampening hopes that the pace of monetary easing might be stepped up. But while the policy rate is likely to be... 16th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: tighter US sanctions would have limited impact Legislation passed by the US Senate to tighten the sanctions regime on Russia provides further reason to think that medium-term growth in Russia will be extremely weak. But the near-term economic... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (May) Russian headline inflation was unchanged in May, but the fall in core inflation to below the central bank’s target supports our view that the policy interest rate will be lowered again, from 9.25% to... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s recovery to be stronger than consensus expects Despite a gradual shift in the consensus over the past couple of months, we still think that markets are underestimating the extent to which inflation and interest rates in Russia are likely to fall... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Regional recovery takes hold First quarter GDP estimates for Emerging Europe published this month beat expectations across the board and suggest that growth in the region as a whole picked up to a three-year high of 2.3% y/y... 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) The better-than-expected batch of Russian activity data for April indicate that the economy probably grew by 0.7-0.8% y/y at the start of Q2, up from 0.5% y/y in Q1. 22nd May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2017) First quarter GDP data from Russia were a touch stronger than expected and are all the more encouraging given that calendar effects will have pulled down the growth figure for Q1. Our GDP forecasts... 17th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Apr.) The further fall in Russian inflation last month – and in core inflation in particular – reinforces our view that the central bank’s easing cycle has much further to run. We expect another interest... 5th May 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian easing cycle has much further to run The Russian central bank’s 50bp interest rate cut to 9.25% today was larger than most (but not us) expected and, taken together with the relatively dovish tone of the statement, supports our view that... 28th April 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Fragile recoveries in Russia and Turkey The latest activity data from Russia and Turkey suggest that both economies lost momentum in Q1. Our GDP Trackers indicate that output in Russia stagnated in annual terms (following an expansion of 0... 24th April 2017 · 1 min read
