Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank stays cautious, but more rate cuts loom Russian central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, struck a predictably cautious tone at today’s postmeeting press conference. But the large amount of spare capacity in the economy is likely to keep... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the fallout from Russia’s Otkritie bailout The breathless commentary surrounding the recent bailout of Otkritie by Russia’s central bank appears to have missed some of the more salient points about Russia’s banking sector. As we explain in... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) Russian inflation fell to a post-communist low of 3.3% y/y in August and we expect the headline rate to remain below the central bank’s 4% target over our forecast horizon. We had thought the Bank... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Central Europe suggest that economic growth has remained robust in Q3. That said, we think that the third quarter will mark a peak for growth across the region. 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: limited market fallout from Otkritie turmoil The uncertainty about how troubles at Otkritie might play out initially pushed up interbank interest rates in Russia, but the Central Bank (CBR) quickly snuffed out the rise using its open market... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s Otkritie bailout highlights risk from previous credit boom The Russian central bank’s decision to bail out struggling Otkritie bank provides the clearest sign yet of the damaging legacy from the sharp run-up in credit seen up to 2014. That said, the strong... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A strong Q2, but regional growth nearing a peak The raft of second quarter GDP data released over the past few weeks showed that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole accelerated to around 3.7% y/y, its fastest pace since 2011. The pickup in growth... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) Russian activity data for July were a bit softer-than-expected, but overall they suggest that the economy continued to grow by over 2% y/y at the start of Q3. 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2017) Russia’s better-than-expected 2.5% y/y GDP growth recorded in Q2 supports our view that the recovery from the recent recession would surprise many on the upside. We have revised our forecasts, which... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jul.) The sharper-than-expected fall in Russian inflation last month means that the central bank, having paused its easing cycle last week, looks set to cut interest rates at next month’s Board meeting. 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs for Emerging Europe suggest that the recovery in Russia’s economy continued at the start of Q3, but provided further evidence that growth in the rest of the region... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global growth recovered in Q2, set to hold up well Data published this week suggest that global economic growth almost certainly picked up a bit in Q2. We expect it to remain fairly rapid for the next year or two, even as China’s economy loses steam. 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: monetary easing cycle to resume in coming months The Russian central bank’s decision to pause its easing cycle was motivated by last month’s higher-than-expected inflation outturn. But we expect inflation to fall back to the central bank’s target... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe: inflation eases, but not for long The scale of the decline in inflation in Central Europe over the past month has taken many by surprise and reinforced expectations in the financial markets that monetary policy will remain very loose... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Will EM equities’ rapid ascent continue? We expect EM equities to rise this year and next, but not at anything like the pace that they have done so far in 2017. The MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index has returned around 20% so far this year... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) Russian activity data for June suggest that the economy grew by 1.5% y/y over Q2 as a whole. That would be the fastest pace of GDP growth since 2013 and supports our view that growth both this year... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
