Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jul.) The small rise in Russian headline inflation, to 2.5% y/y, was driven by higher food inflation, while underlying price pressures still look very soft. We still think the central bank will lower... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What impact would sanctions on Russian sovereign debt have? A bill presented in the US Senate yesterday has raised the threat of US sanctions on Russian sovereign debt. Were the bill to pass, we think it might plausibly add a premium of about 50-100bp to the... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank leaves door open to easing The Russian central bank’s post-meeting statement once again sounded hawkish on inflation risks. But it also implied that interest rates could be lowered in 2019, supporting our view that the easing... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) June’s activity data for Russia were a bit soft, but remain consistent with a pick-up in GDP growth from 1.3% y/y in Q1 to around 2.5% y/y in Q2. 18th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jun.) The modest decline in Russian inflation in June, to 2.3% y/y, was mainly a result of a sharp fall in fruit and vegetable inflation. And while headline inflation is still weak, there were some... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) Last month’s manufacturing PMIs made for disappointing reading in most of Emerging Europe. After plunging to a nine-year low in May, the Turkish survey remained weak in June, suggesting that the... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What should we make of Russia’s data revisions? The upwards revisions to Russia’s industrial production figures have raised concerns about the quality of the data but, based on the figures released so far, the new series does seem to reflect... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (May) The strength of May’s Russian activity data, coupled with upwards revisions to the industrial output figures, suggests that GDP growth picked up to more than 2% y/y, compared with the latest estimate... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank to slow (but not end) easing cycle Govenor Nabiullina’s hawkish comments at today’s post-meeting press conference are likely to reinforce views in the markets that the central bank’s easing cycle is at an end. For our part, we think... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Russia’s demographic squeeze (finally) being tackled? The announcement that Russia’s Cabinet plans to raise the retirement age is a step in the right direction. While there are question marks about whether it will be implemented in full, it could stop... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and the sanctions impact The imposition of more stringent US financial sanctions in April seems to have resulted in a long-lasting premium in Russia’s currency and bond market. But there has been little convincing evidence of... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (May) Russian inflation was unchanged at 2.4% y/y in May, providing further evidence that the ruble’s fall in April has not led to a build-up in price pressures. This should give the central bank confidence... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Geopolitics more likely to affect ECB than the Fed For now, we don’t expect the geopolitical developments to alter the behaviour of the major central banks. Provided that the political crisis in Italy does not flare up again, we think the ECB is... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) The latest Russian activity figures suggest that GDP growth picked up to about 1.5% y/y at the start of Q2. These data also provide early evidence that the tightening of US sanctions and the fall in... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2018) Russian GDP expanded by a weaker-than-expected 1.3% y/y in Q1, but the data do at least confirm that the economy is recovering from its slowdown in late 2017. And we think growth will strengthen by... 16th May 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Apr.) The weaker-than-expected Russian inflation figure for April, of 2.4% y/y, supports our view that the central bank’s decision to hold interest rates last week was just a pause in the easing cycle. We... 4th May 2018 · 1 min read
