Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Oct.) The slightly smaller-than-expected rise in Russian inflation, to 3.5% y/y, last month supports our view that the central bank will refrain from tightening monetary policy further. Markets, in contrast... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank not inclined to tighten further The Russian central bank’s statement accompanying today’s Board meeting reinforces our view that September’s interest rate hike was intended as a one-off. Whereas the financial markets are pricing in... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Currency rallies ease pressure on central banks The recent rallies in the Russian ruble and the Turkish lira have added weight to our view that central banks in both countries will refrain from tightening policy further when they meet next week... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) The softness of the Russian activity data for September means that overall GDP growth probably weakened to around 1.5% y/y in Q3 (from 1.9% y/y in Q2). That said, there are still reasons to think that... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Sep.) The further rise in Russian inflation, to 3.4% y/y, last month was driven mainly by a pick-up in food inflation, but core price pressures stayed soft. That, coming alongside the recent stabilisation... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy still has some slack Russia’s recovery doesn’t appear to have used up the spare capacity in the economy and we estimate that there is an output gap of about 1% of potential GDP. That means there’s scope for GDP to grow... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) The batch of Russian activity figures for August showed a slump in the agricultural sector, which is likely to cause GDP growth to weaken in Q3. The experience from the past decade is that these... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Sanctions push Russian central bank to tighten The tone of the Russian central bank’s press conference suggests that today’s interest rate hike was a pre-emptive move against an expected tightening of US sanctions, not the start of a cycle. As... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Central banks hint at rate hikes, Turkish GDP figures Central banks in both Russia and Turkey created a stir this week by raising the prospect of rate hikes, but we think that the degree of tightening in Turkey will disappoint markets and policymakers in... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) The rise in Russian inflation to 3.1% y/y in August, combined with Governor Nabiullina’s hawkish comments yesterday, will add fuel to expectations for an interest rate hike. But with underlying price... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia already slipping on fiscal reforms Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement yesterday that the government will soften a planned rise in the retirement age wasn’t altogether surprising, but it marks part of a broader slippage on... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Lower supply to support aluminium prices next year After surging to a seven-year high in mid-April on the back of the US Treasury’s decision to impose sanctions on Russian aluminium producer, Rusal, the price of aluminium has since collapsed. While we... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Jul.) Global aluminium output was up by nearly 3% y/y in July, owing to higher production in China and India. We had warned that this could happen as the prospect of China’s anti-pollution winter cuts and... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) Russian activity for July suggest that the economy continued to grow at a steady pace between Q2 and the start of Q3. Our Tracker is consistent with GDP growth of about 2.5% y/y and, while the Tracker... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2018) The pick-up in Russian GDP growth, to 1.8% y/y in Q2, was a bit weaker than we had expected and there is now a downside risk to our growth forecast of 2.3% for the year as a whole. Even so, we think... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Sanctions and the importance of balance sheets The fact that the US sanctions (or the threat of) are having a bigger impact on financial markets in Turkey than Russia reflects the latter’s much stronger balance sheets as well as the credibility of... 9th August 2018 · 1 min read
