Industrial Metals Update Russian sanctions’ boost to aluminium to be short-lived The sanctions on Russian producer, Rusal, are likely to support aluminium prices in the short term. However, Russian output is unlikely to collapse. What’s more, higher prices will encourage... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ruble’s fall doesn’t rule out further rate cuts The sharp fall in the Russian ruble today has raised the risk that the central bank pauses its easing cycle when it meets later this month. The situation is in a state of flux and the outlook for... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s sanction sell-off and the economic impact The US sanctions imposed on Russia last Friday have caused turmoil in Russia’s markets today and financial conditions have tightened as a result. But at this stage it doesn’t look like there will be a... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Mar.) The rise in Russian inflation, to 2.4% y/y, last month confirms that the headline rate has passed its trough and we expect it to drift up over the rest of the year as food inflation strengthens. But... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s easing cycle has much further to run Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina gave little away at today’s post-meeting press conference about the future path for interest rates, but her overall tone suggests that there’s scope for... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Feb.) Russian activity figures for February were generally a bit weaker than expected, but even so it looks like the economy is on course to grow by about 1.5-1.8% y/y in Q1, up from about 1.0% y/y in Q4... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and the sanctions threat The fall in Russia’s external liabilities over the past few years has reduced the extent to which its economy might be adversely affected by the imposition of additional financial sanctions. By the... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putin 4.0: what to look out for Vladimir Putin’s landslide victory in yesterday’s presidential election has barely caused a ripple in local markets. The focus will now turn to the appointment of a new cabinet, which may provide... 19th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Feb.) Russian inflation figures for February confirmed that underlying price pressures remain weak and another cut in the central bank’s policy interest rate at the next Board meeting later this month is... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Headwinds loom for Moscow office rents A tightening office market bodes well for prime rents in Moscow. But with poor demographics and unemployment already very low, the labour market will prevent a rapid pick-up in rental growth. 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Putin 4.0: The Great Stagnation The outcome of Russia’s presidential election next month is not in doubt, although it’s still unclear what direction economic policy will take during President Putin’s fourth (and probably final) term... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jan.) Russian activity data for January show that, having slowed over the second half of last year, the economy has now turned the corner. It looks like growth picked up to about 1.3% y/y last month from 1... 19th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Early signs that Russia’s recovery is getting back on track Russia’s economy slowed over the second half of 2017, but the latest data for January suggest that conditions have improved at the start of this year. We expect growth to strengthen over the coming... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank opens door to more cuts over 2018 The Russian central bank’s 25bp cut in its policy interest rate (to 7.50%) today was smaller than we had anticipated, but the decision was accompanied by a very dovish statement that paves the way for... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2017) Russian annual GDP data for 2017, which showed that the economy expanded by 1.5% over the year as a whole, are consistent with a slowdown in growth to 1.0% y/y in Q4, from 1.8% y/y in Q3. However, we... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) December’s activity data for Russia suggest that GDP growth over Q4 as a whole may have slowed to a disappointing 1.0% y/y, from 1.8% y/y in Q3. But conditions improved right at the end of last year... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
