Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR likely to cut rates before the end of this year The Central Bank of Russia’s dovish tilt today has prompted us to bring forward some of the interest rate cuts that we had been anticipating in 2020. We now think that the policy rate will be lowered... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Feb.) Given the weak start to the year, it looks like Russian GDP growth is shaping up to be weaker in Q1 than in Q4. But February’s activity data were more encouraging, and it does at least appear that... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukrainian election, signs of stimulus in Russia Pro-IMF comments this week from the front-runner in Ukraine’s presidential election race (and comedian), Volodymyr Zelenskiy, reduce the risk that this month’s vote could trigger an adverse reaction... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Feb.) The reasonably small rise in Russian inflation, from 5.0% y/y in January to 5.2% y/y in February, is likely to offer further reassurance to the central bank that a recent VAT hike hasn’t fed into a... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Weaker growth, central banks’ dovish turn Data published over the past week provided further evidence that the region’s economies slowed at the start of this year. This, coming alongside lower inflation, has resulted in a dovish shift by... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian credit recovery has further to run The recent recovery in Russian private sector credit growth is likely to continue over the coming quarters, supporting our view that, despite the weakness of recent activity data, economic growth will... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Office sector outperforms; retail in the doldrums Occupier markets are seeing diverging fortunes, with occupier demand for office and industrial space extremely strong, but retailers battling a number of headwinds. This is likely to set the tone for... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia and the sanctions threat Developments in the US Senate indicate that sanctions on Russia are likely to tighten in the coming months. Historically, the introduction (or threat) of sanctions has tended to result in a long... 14th February 2019 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s manufacturing slump should be temporary We suspect that the sharp slowdown in Russia’s manufacturing sector in the second half of 2018 was due to a fall in public spending on military and railway transport. If we’re right, manufacturing... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian GDP controversy, CEE slowdown The much stronger-than-expected Russian GDP growth figure for 2018, released this week, led to accusations that Rosstat is manipulating the figures, but we think that these data actually paint a... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next move in Russian rates likely to be down The less hawkish nature of the Russian central bank’s statement means that we no longer expect an interest rate hike in the coming months. Instead, with inflation likely to return to target in 2020... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jan.) The softer-than-expected Russian inflation figure for January, of 5.0% y/y, is likely to temper some of the central bank’s hawkish rhetoric when the Board meets on Friday. Given the central bank’s... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2018) The stronger-than-expected Russian 2018 GDP growth figure of 2.3% suggests that Rosstat has made significant upwards revisions to the quarterly growth figures for the first half of last year. Based on... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s budget surplus, CBRT more hawkish The budget surplus recorded in Russia in 2018 has put the spotlight on austerity measures, but it actually looks like fiscal policy will provide more support to the economy this year than it did in... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) The batch of Russian activity data for December suggests that the economy weakened at the end of last year. Even so, GDP growth over Q4 as a whole was probably a little stronger than it was in Q3... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revising our Russia forecasts Low oil prices, cuts to oil production and the central bank’s hawkish shift have prompted us to nudge our 2019 growth forecast for Russia down to 2.0% (from 2.3%), although that still leaves us a bit... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
