Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (May) The further fall in Russian inflation to 5.1% y/y last month probably seals the deal on an interest rate cut at next week’s meeting. We expect a 25bp cut to 7.50%. 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rise in Moscow office yields to be short-lived With Russian government bond yields expected to continue falling this year, we think that the rise in Moscow office yields in Q1 will prove temporary and that they will end the year at 9%, down from 9... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian survey data point to small pick-up in growth A recent improvement in the survey data from Russia suggests that, following an extremely disappointing Q1, the economy should undergo a modest recovery over the next few quarters. 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) April’s activity data suggest that Russian GDP growth picked up at the start of Q2 as strong industrialoutput offset continued weakness in the retail and construction sectors. 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: fiscal policy to support modest pick-up in growth Fiscal policy exerted a big drag on the Russian economy last year and in Q1 of this year, but there are signs that the fiscal stance is now becoming less restrictive. This should support a modest... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2019) The much weaker-than-anticipated Russian Q1 GDP growth figure of 0.5% y/y is consistent with a q/q contraction in output. We think that this probably marks the trough and growth should pick up over... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE GDP, Turkey fiscal stimulus & Russian tainted oil An impressive batch of GDP data from Central and Eastern Europe, released this week, added to the evidence that strong domestic demand is offsetting external weakness. Elsewhere, Turkey’s budget... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Regional slowdown, Turkey’s bumpy recovery The raft of Q1 GDP data due next week are likely to show that aggregate growth in Emerging Europe slowed to its weakest pace in over two years. Much of this reflects weakness in Russia; growth in... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Apr.) The small fall in Russian inflation to 5.2% y/y last month will provide reassurance to the central bank that inflation has now passed its peak. We expect the headline rate to ease further in the... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Russia This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Russia’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian wage growth to recover Following several quarters of weakness, Russian wage growth will probably pick up a little over the coming months as public sector salaries are raised and labour market conditions continue to tighten... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank signals rate cut is imminent The dovish nature of the Russian central bank’s post-meeting statement has prompted us to bring forward the interest rate cut that we had pencilled in for Q3 to June. Further ahead, we forecast that... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian ruble rally likely to fade The Russian ruble has been the best-performing EM currency so far this year, in spite of the threat of tighter US sanctions which caused a premium to open up in February. We think that the ruble rally... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) March’s activity data suggest that Russian GDP growth slowed markedly at the start of this year, weakening from 2.8% y/y in Q4 to 1.0-1.5% y/y in Q1. The pace of expansion is likely to remain soft... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Mar.) The small rise in Russian inflation, to 5.3% y/y last month, should help to reassure the central bank that January’s VAT hike hasn’t translated into a marked strengthening of price pressures... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What should we make of Rosstat’s latest revisions? The strength of Russian GDP growth in Q4 (and the upwards revisions to the historical data) has caused controversy. But overall, we think the new GDP figures probably bear a closer resemblance to... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
