Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) The soft Russian activity data for September suggest that GDP growth over Q3 as a whole was in line with Q2’s sluggish outturn of 0.9% y/y. Coming alongside low inflation, another 25bp interest rate... 17th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Sep.) The fall in Russian inflation to the central bank’s target of 4.0% y/y in September is likely to be followed by a further decline in the headline rate over the coming months. We currently expect an... 4th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) Turkey’s PMI for September provides further evidence that the economy recovered strongly in the third quarter and with policy set to be loosened further, the recovery has some legs. Meanwhile, our... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) The batch of Russian activity data for August suggest that the economy maintained a steady, if not inspiring, pace of growth in Q3. With growth unlikely to pick up markedly over the rest of the year... 18th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: CBR governor keeps door open to easing Russian central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, used the post-meeting press conference to hint at a possible further rate cut by year-end, supporting our view that the easing cycle has further to... 6th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) The fall in Russian inflation to a weaker-than-expected 4.3% y/y last month strengthens our view that the central bank will lower its policy rate by 25bp when it meets tomorrow. Soft underlying price... 5th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) July’s Russia activity data suggest that, after recovering slightly in Q2, the economy may have lost a bit of momentum at the start of Q3. This, combined with easing inflationary pressures, will leave... 19th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2019) The slightly better-than-expected 0.9% y/y rise in Russian GDP in Q2, up from 0.5% y/y in Q1, is likely to be followed by a further improvement in the second half of the year. But growth is still... 12th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Time to worry about Russia’s household credit boom? The recent pace of Russian household lending looks frothy, but the central bank already appears to have taken some of the steam out of the credit boom. Even if household loans start turning sour... 8th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (July) The decline in Russian inflation to 4.6% y/y last month – coming alongside the stability of the ruble this week – adds weight to our view that the central bank will cut its policy rate by a further... 6th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank to cut further than most expect The relatively dovish statement accompanying the Russian central bank’s decision to cut the policy rate today supports our view that the easing cycle has a lot further to go. We expect an additional... 26th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) June’s activity data suggest that following a weak Q1, Russian GDP growth slowed in Q2. This, combined with soft inflationary pressures, supports our view that the central bank will cut rates next... 17th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jun.) The further fall in Russian inflation to 4.7% y/y last month, coming alongside recent dovish comments from the central bank, has prompted us to pencil in a 25bp rate cut (to 7.25%) at the next Board... 8th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (May) May’s activity data suggest that, following extremely weak GDP growth in Q1, Russia’s economy has failed to gather much momentum in Q2. 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: easing cycle has further to run The Central Bank of Russia’s dovish communications accompanying today’s decision to cut the key rate support our view that more monetary loosening lies in store over the coming quarters. We expect... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: underlying price pressures are contained The rise in Russian inflation in late-2018 and early-2019 was driven largely by higher food prices and a VAT hike. To overcome these distortions, we’ve created a measure of ‘underlying’ inflation... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
