Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Oil lower, Russia’s response, Polish rates Lower oil prices will benefit most countries in Emerging Europe and, for the major loser, Russia, oil at $60pb is manageable – although we do think that it will agree with Saudi Arabia to cut oil... 30th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lower oil prices shouldn’t derail Russia’s recovery The latest fall in oil prices will reduce Russia’s export revenues, but the budget and current account should remain in surplus and a significant shift in fiscal (or monetary) policy is unlikely. As a... 28th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Russian markets hold up despite oil fall, Ukraine spat Russian financial markets have tumbled following the naval dispute with Ukraine, but the big picture is that local asset prices have held up well this month given the backdrop of falling oil prices... 26th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly PiS backs down in EU row, Polish hawks getting louder This week’s U-turn by Poland’s government over a controversial judicial reform suggests that policymakers are adopting a less divisive stance in the run-up to next year’s elections. While this is... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Oct.) The improvement in the Russian activity data in October suggests that, after growing by a disappointing 1.3% y/y in Q3, the economy regained momentum at the start of Q4. We expect this recovery to be... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian oil output jumps, CEE economies gather pace The Russian government seems to have softened its line about cutting oil output to prop up prices this week, but given that output surged in October, any cuts would have a limited economic impact... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3 2018) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth in Q3, to 1.3% y/y, appears to have been driven by broad-based weakness across the economy. But the early signs are that growth will recover in Q4, and we still... 13th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Regional growth slows further, inflation rises GDP data to be released next week are likely to confirm that growth across Emerging Europe continued to weaken in Q3. Meanwhile, figures published this week showed that inflation picked up in most of... 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Has a weaker ruble helped Russia’s economy? There’s little evidence so far to suggest that the fall in the ruble this year has boosted Russia’s economy, but we think the positive effects will begin to materialise in 2019. 9th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Oct.) The slightly smaller-than-expected rise in Russian inflation, to 3.5% y/y, last month supports our view that the central bank will refrain from tightening monetary policy further. Markets, in contrast... 6th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank not inclined to tighten further The Russian central bank’s statement accompanying today’s Board meeting reinforces our view that September’s interest rate hike was intended as a one-off. Whereas the financial markets are pricing in... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Currency rallies ease pressure on central banks The recent rallies in the Russian ruble and the Turkish lira have added weight to our view that central banks in both countries will refrain from tightening policy further when they meet next week... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) The softness of the Russian activity data for September means that overall GDP growth probably weakened to around 1.5% y/y in Q3 (from 1.9% y/y in Q2). That said, there are still reasons to think that... 17th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Sep.) The further rise in Russian inflation, to 3.4% y/y, last month was driven mainly by a pick-up in food inflation, but core price pressures stayed soft. That, coming alongside the recent stabilisation... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy still has some slack Russia’s recovery doesn’t appear to have used up the spare capacity in the economy and we estimate that there is an output gap of about 1% of potential GDP. That means there’s scope for GDP to grow... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) The batch of Russian activity figures for August showed a slump in the agricultural sector, which is likely to cause GDP growth to weaken in Q3. The experience from the past decade is that these... 19th September 2018 · 1 min read
