Emerging Markets Economics Update Are we facing a re-run of the 2014-16 oil price crash? The recent oil price shock has invoked comparisons with 2014-16, when prices fell to similarly low levels and large EMs – notably Brazil and Russia – entered crises. But this time around, we think... 11th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the impact of a weaker ruble for Russia The recent fall in the ruble will help to cushion the hit to the Russian government’s revenues resulting from the plunge in oil prices, but it will come at a cost to corporates that have large... 10th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and the collapse in oil prices The tailspin in global oil prices will push Russia’s current account and budget balances into deficit but shouldn’t create severe strains in the economy. It would probably take a steeper fall in... 9th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further fall in Russian inflation to 2.3% y/y in February leaves the door open for the central bank to continue its easing cycle this month. Although market expectations for easing have been pared... 6th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jan.) January’s batch of Russian activity data suggest that GDP growth was broadly steady at around 1.8% y/y. While some of the recent props to growth have started to fade, policy support is likely to... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank keeps door open to more easing The Russian central bank governor’s post-meeting press conference reinforced the message that, following today’s 25bp interest rate cut to 6.00%, further easing lies in store. We maintain our view... 7th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jan.) The larger-than-expected drop in Russian inflation to just 2.4% y/y in January primarily reflected the unwinding impact of last year’s VAT hike. But it will probably be enough to prompt the central... 6th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) December’s batch of Russian activity data suggests that GDP growth in Q4 was broadly unchanged from Q3’s 1.7% y/y, but the economy appears to have lost steam at the end of the quarter. That... 28th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: nearing the end of the easing cycle The Russian central bank governor’s post-meeting press conference was characteristically cautious, supporting our view that following today’s 25bp interest rate cut, there will probably be just one... 13th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Russia’s National Welfare Fund There is a growing expectation that Russia’s government will adjust the way the National Welfare Fund invests next year. In this Update, we take a closer look at what this means and explain why... 11th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Nov.) The drop in Russian inflation to just 3.5% y/y in November increases the probability of another 50bp interest rate cut at the central bank’s meeting next Friday although, on balance, we think a 25bp... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Oct.) The batch of Russian activity data for October suggest that the economy started Q4 on a firm footing following Q3’s stronger-than-expected 1.7% y/y expansion. But with inflation likely to fall further... 20th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3 2019) The pick-up in Russian GDP growth to 1.7% y/y in Q3 appears to have been driven by a turnaround in the agricultural and wholesale trade sectors. But even though growth has strengthened, falling... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Oct.) The decline in Russian inflation to 3.8% y/y in October is likely to be followed by further falls in the coming months, providing scope for the central bank’s easing cycle to run a little further. We... 6th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s easing cycle shifts up a gear The Russian central bank’s decision to opt for a 50bp rate cut today (to 6.50%) and the dovish tone of the accompanying statement support our view that the easing cycle has further to run. As things... 25th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian retail sales set for a tepid recovery The weakness in Russian retail sales looks close to bottoming out, but any turnaround will be modest. This is one reason to think that the overall recovery in GDP growth will be weak and that the... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
