Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia and the sanctions threat Developments in the US Senate indicate that sanctions on Russia are likely to tighten in the coming months. Historically, the introduction (or threat) of sanctions has tended to result in a long... 14th February 2019 · 10 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s manufacturing slump should be temporary We suspect that the sharp slowdown in Russia’s manufacturing sector in the second half of 2018 was due to a fall in public spending on military and railway transport. If we’re right, manufacturing... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian GDP controversy, CEE slowdown The much stronger-than-expected Russian GDP growth figure for 2018, released this week, led to accusations that Rosstat is manipulating the figures, but we think that these data actually paint a... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Next move in Russian rates likely to be down The less hawkish nature of the Russian central bank’s statement means that we no longer expect an interest rate hike in the coming months. Instead, with inflation likely to return to target in 2020... 8th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jan.) The softer-than-expected Russian inflation figure for January, of 5.0% y/y, is likely to temper some of the central bank’s hawkish rhetoric when the Board meets on Friday. Given the central bank’s... 6th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2018) The stronger-than-expected Russian 2018 GDP growth figure of 2.3% suggests that Rosstat has made significant upwards revisions to the quarterly growth figures for the first half of last year. Based on... 4th February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s budget surplus, CBRT more hawkish The budget surplus recorded in Russia in 2018 has put the spotlight on austerity measures, but it actually looks like fiscal policy will provide more support to the economy this year than it did in... 1st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) The batch of Russian activity data for December suggests that the economy weakened at the end of last year. Even so, GDP growth over Q4 as a whole was probably a little stronger than it was in Q3... 25th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Revising our Russia forecasts Low oil prices, cuts to oil production and the central bank’s hawkish shift have prompted us to nudge our 2019 growth forecast for Russia down to 2.0% (from 2.3%), although that still leaves us a bit... 15th January 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Nov.) Russian activity data for November add to the evidence that, after expanding by a tepid 1.5% y/y in Q3, the economy has regained momentum in Q4. We expect that this recovery will be sustained over the... 19th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary courts controversy, Russian economy picking up The creation of a controversial parallel new court system in Hungary – signed into law on Wednesday – will bring the government into further conflict with Brussels, but the economic impact is only... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank lays ground for another hike Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina’s hawkish post-meeting press conference reinforced our impression that another hike in interest rates is likely over the next few months. We now expect... 14th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s recovery regaining momentum After a disappointing Q3, leading indicators suggest that Russia’s economy strengthened in Q4. We expect that GDP growth will rebound to around 1.8-2.0% y/y over the quarter as whole. 11th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does the OPEC deal mean for EM oil producers? The agreement between OPEC and other major oil producers to cut oil production is likely to act as a headwind to growth across EM oil producers next year. The Gulf economies will suffer the biggest... 10th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Nov.) The rise in Russian inflation, to 3.8% y/y in November, from 3.5% y/y in October, was driven entirely by higher food inflation. As a result, while the central bank Board meeting next Friday will be a... 6th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Retail spending to remain a soft spot in Russia’s recovery The recent slowdown in Russian retail spending appears to be close to bottoming out. But we doubt that retail sales will grow by any more than 2.0-2.5% y/y over the next twelve months. 4th December 2018 · 1 min read
