Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia’s easing cycle entering new waters Russia’s central bank has lowered its policy rate to a post-Soviet low during the current crisis and, with the economy likely to recover slowly and inflation set to remain subdued, further monetary... 16th July 2020 · 21 mins read
Commodities Update The Siberian heatwave and commodities Unseasonably hot weather in Siberia in recent months has weighed on wheat production and damaged industrial infrastructure. Scientists think that future heatwaves in the region will become more common... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.) Russian inflation rose to 3.2% y/y in June and we think that it will rise a bit further over the coming months. But this increase should prove temporary and inflation is likely to remain below the... 8th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine in the spotlight, Russia’s sanctions threat The resignation of Ukraine’s central bank governor, Yakiv Smolii, this week is unlikely to upend the country’s IMF deal, but failure to replace him with a credible candidate or backsliding on recent... 3rd July 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia cuts rates to a record low, more easing to come Russia’s central bank (CBR) didn’t disappoint at today’s meeting, cutting the key policy rate by 100bp to a new post-Soviet low of 4.50%. With disinflationary forces proving stronger than expected and... 19th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (May) Russian inflation eased to 3.0% y/y in May and the underlying picture is that inflation has been much weaker than many expected just a few months ago. Price pressures are likely to remain muted which... 5th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How vulnerable are Russia’s banks? A deep dive into Russia’s banking system provides comfort that, while there are pockets of vulnerability beneath the surface, the economy is unlikely to experience a financial crisis like it did in... 20th May 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2020) The slowdown in Russian GDP growth to 1.6% y/y in Q1 almost certainly failed to capture the extent of virus containment measures as the government did not implement lockdown measures until late-March... 19th May 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) The relatively strong batch of Russian activity data for March suggest that GDP growth probably picked up a touch to 2.5% y/y in Q1. However, this largely reflects the fact that Russia was much slower... 27th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank cuts rates, more to follow The Russian central bank abandoned its cautious approach to the coronavirus outbreak by cutting its key policy rate by 50bp, to 5.50%, today and the accompanying communications gave the clearest... 24th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Counting the costs of the oil price slump for Russia The plunge in oil prices won’t push Russia’s economy into a financial crisis, as it did in 2008/09 and 2015. But the government is likely to run its largest budget deficit since the late 1990s, which... 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.) The rise in Russian inflation to 2.5% y/y in March probably marks the start of a gradual pick-up over the next few months as the effects of the weaker ruble feed through to consumer prices. But with... 6th April 2020 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Saudi-led output cuts won’t be a gamechanger Oil prices have surged by about 30% in recent days after President Trump said that a deal between Russia and Saudi Arabia to jointly cut oil production would come in a “few days”. We are sceptical... 3rd April 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE bond purchases, Russia’s containment measures The policy response across Central and Eastern Europe has become more aggressive over the past few weeks and the region’s central banks have joined a growing list of those that have started purchasing... 27th March 2020 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy heading for recession The slump in domestic and external demand as a result of the coronavirus outbreak means that we now expect the Russian economy to contract sharply this year. Despite its recent reluctance we expect... 24th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank likely to lower rates soon The Russian central bank’s decision to keep the policy rate unchanged at 6.00% today made it one of the few major central banks that has yet to cut rates to support the economy in response to the... 20th March 2020 · 3 mins read
