Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Regional slowdown, Turkey’s bumpy recovery The raft of Q1 GDP data due next week are likely to show that aggregate growth in Emerging Europe slowed to its weakest pace in over two years. Much of this reflects weakness in Russia; growth in... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Apr.) The small fall in Russian inflation to 5.2% y/y last month will provide reassurance to the central bank that inflation has now passed its peak. We expect the headline rate to ease further in the... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Russia This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Russia’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic product... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian wage growth to recover Following several quarters of weakness, Russian wage growth will probably pick up a little over the coming months as public sector salaries are raised and labour market conditions continue to tighten... 1st May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank signals rate cut is imminent The dovish nature of the Russian central bank’s post-meeting statement has prompted us to bring forward the interest rate cut that we had pencilled in for Q3 to June. Further ahead, we forecast that... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian ruble rally likely to fade The Russian ruble has been the best-performing EM currency so far this year, in spite of the threat of tighter US sanctions which caused a premium to open up in February. We think that the ruble rally... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) March’s activity data suggest that Russian GDP growth slowed markedly at the start of this year, weakening from 2.8% y/y in Q4 to 1.0-1.5% y/y in Q1. The pace of expansion is likely to remain soft... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Mar.) The small rise in Russian inflation, to 5.3% y/y last month, should help to reassure the central bank that January’s VAT hike hasn’t translated into a marked strengthening of price pressures... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What should we make of Rosstat’s latest revisions? The strength of Russian GDP growth in Q4 (and the upwards revisions to the historical data) has caused controversy. But overall, we think the new GDP figures probably bear a closer resemblance to... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR likely to cut rates before the end of this year The Central Bank of Russia’s dovish tilt today has prompted us to bring forward some of the interest rate cuts that we had been anticipating in 2020. We now think that the policy rate will be lowered... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Feb.) Given the weak start to the year, it looks like Russian GDP growth is shaping up to be weaker in Q1 than in Q4. But February’s activity data were more encouraging, and it does at least appear that... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukrainian election, signs of stimulus in Russia Pro-IMF comments this week from the front-runner in Ukraine’s presidential election race (and comedian), Volodymyr Zelenskiy, reduce the risk that this month’s vote could trigger an adverse reaction... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Feb.) The reasonably small rise in Russian inflation, from 5.0% y/y in January to 5.2% y/y in February, is likely to offer further reassurance to the central bank that a recent VAT hike hasn’t fed into a... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Weaker growth, central banks’ dovish turn Data published over the past week provided further evidence that the region’s economies slowed at the start of this year. This, coming alongside lower inflation, has resulted in a dovish shift by... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian credit recovery has further to run The recent recovery in Russian private sector credit growth is likely to continue over the coming quarters, supporting our view that, despite the weakness of recent activity data, economic growth will... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Office sector outperforms; retail in the doldrums Occupier markets are seeing diverging fortunes, with occupier demand for office and industrial space extremely strong, but retailers battling a number of headwinds. This is likely to set the tone for... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
