Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3 2020) The stronger-than-expected improvement in Russian GDP growth to -3.6% y/y in Q3 means that the economy has come through this crisis in better shape than many other EMs. But the recovery lost a lot of... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM banks: revisiting the risks India’s banks entered the crisis in worse shape than other major EMs, although large state involvement in the financial sector means the government is unlikely to remain idle if loan losses start to... 3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s easing cycle will resume before long The decision by Russia’s central bank to leave its policy rate at 4.25% today suggests that inflationary concerns are preventing further easing for now. But the communications reinforce our view that... 23rd October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) There were few positives in September’s batch of Russian activity data as the contraction in retail sales deepened and the recovery in the manufacturing sector stalled. The rise in virus cases and... 20th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Russian inflation edged up to 3.7% y/y in September and we think that it will rise a bit further over the coming months, which is likely to prompt the central bank to pause its easing cycle at its... 6th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of Russia’s coronavirus outbreak The surge in coronavirus cases in Russia looks set to trigger tighter restrictions in the coming months. But we doubt that policymakers will re-introduce a full lockdown. After all, it would be... 6th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) The batch of Russian activity data for August show that the economic recovery continued throughout the middle of Q3 as mining output recovered strongly, but activity in the retail and manufacturing... 18th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rates on hold in Russia, but easing cycle is not over The decision by Russia’s central bank to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.25% today is likely to mark a pause rather than an end to its easing cycle. The central bank will maintain its cautious... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Digging into Russia’s consumer recovery The rebound in Russian consumer spending since April has been supported by a more active fiscal policy stance than we had expected. Although the pace of growth will soften, spending is likely to... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slump in the Russian ruble has further to run The Russian ruble looks set to lose further ground over the coming months as geopolitical tensions and the threat of international sanctions ratchet up. We expect the ruble to drift towards 80/$ by... 8th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.) Russian inflation rose to 3.6% y/y in August and we think that it will edge up a bit further over the coming months. This shouldn’t trouble the central bank too much, but the threat of sanctions and... 4th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Low interest rates will be the new normal in Russia The neutral interest rate has become one of the hot topics in Russian monetary policy over the past year and the downward revision to the central bank’s estimate of the neutral rate in July marks the... 26th August 2020 · 24 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Protests in Belarus and what they mean for the region The escalation of protests in Belarus and calls for EU sanctions pose a major threat to political stability in the country and the economic outlook, but a downturn in Belarus’ economy would have... 17th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2020) The smaller-than-expected fall in Russian GDP of 8.5% y/y in Q2 confirms that the downturn in Russia’s economy wasn’t as bad as had been feared as the crisis unfolded earlier this year. The early... 11th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jul.) The rise in Russian inflation to 3.4% y/y in July is likely to be followed by a further modest increase over the next few months, but this shouldn’t prevent the central bank from cutting the policy... 6th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia opts for small rate cut, cautious easing ahead Russia’s central bank cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.25%, today and continued to provide signals that further easing lies in store. But the communications suggest that the pace of easing will slow... 24th July 2020 · 3 mins read
