Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2019) The slightly better-than-expected 0.9% y/y rise in Russian GDP in Q2, up from 0.5% y/y in Q1, is likely to be followed by a further improvement in the second half of the year. But growth is still... 12th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Time to worry about Russia’s household credit boom? The recent pace of Russian household lending looks frothy, but the central bank already appears to have taken some of the steam out of the credit boom. Even if household loans start turning sour... 8th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (July) The decline in Russian inflation to 4.6% y/y last month – coming alongside the stability of the ruble this week – adds weight to our view that the central bank will cut its policy rate by a further... 6th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank to cut further than most expect The relatively dovish statement accompanying the Russian central bank’s decision to cut the policy rate today supports our view that the easing cycle has a lot further to go. We expect an additional... 26th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) June’s activity data suggest that following a weak Q1, Russian GDP growth slowed in Q2. This, combined with soft inflationary pressures, supports our view that the central bank will cut rates next... 17th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Jun.) The further fall in Russian inflation to 4.7% y/y last month, coming alongside recent dovish comments from the central bank, has prompted us to pencil in a 25bp rate cut (to 7.25%) at the next Board... 8th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (May) May’s activity data suggest that, following extremely weak GDP growth in Q1, Russia’s economy has failed to gather much momentum in Q2. 20th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: easing cycle has further to run The Central Bank of Russia’s dovish communications accompanying today’s decision to cut the key rate support our view that more monetary loosening lies in store over the coming quarters. We expect... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: underlying price pressures are contained The rise in Russian inflation in late-2018 and early-2019 was driven largely by higher food prices and a VAT hike. To overcome these distortions, we’ve created a measure of ‘underlying’ inflation... 10th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (May) The further fall in Russian inflation to 5.1% y/y last month probably seals the deal on an interest rate cut at next week’s meeting. We expect a 25bp cut to 7.50%. 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rise in Moscow office yields to be short-lived With Russian government bond yields expected to continue falling this year, we think that the rise in Moscow office yields in Q1 will prove temporary and that they will end the year at 9%, down from 9... 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian survey data point to small pick-up in growth A recent improvement in the survey data from Russia suggests that, following an extremely disappointing Q1, the economy should undergo a modest recovery over the next few quarters. 30th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) April’s activity data suggest that Russian GDP growth picked up at the start of Q2 as strong industrialoutput offset continued weakness in the retail and construction sectors. 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: fiscal policy to support modest pick-up in growth Fiscal policy exerted a big drag on the Russian economy last year and in Q1 of this year, but there are signs that the fiscal stance is now becoming less restrictive. This should support a modest... 22nd May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2019) The much weaker-than-anticipated Russian Q1 GDP growth figure of 0.5% y/y is consistent with a q/q contraction in output. We think that this probably marks the trough and growth should pick up over... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE GDP, Turkey fiscal stimulus & Russian tainted oil An impressive batch of GDP data from Central and Eastern Europe, released this week, added to the evidence that strong domestic demand is offsetting external weakness. Elsewhere, Turkey’s budget... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
