Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) December’s batch of Russian activity data suggests that GDP growth in Q4 was broadly unchanged from Q3’s 1.7% y/y, but the economy appears to have lost steam at the end of the quarter. That... 28th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: nearing the end of the easing cycle The Russian central bank governor’s post-meeting press conference was characteristically cautious, supporting our view that following today’s 25bp interest rate cut, there will probably be just one... 13th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Russia’s National Welfare Fund There is a growing expectation that Russia’s government will adjust the way the National Welfare Fund invests next year. In this Update, we take a closer look at what this means and explain why... 11th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Nov.) The drop in Russian inflation to just 3.5% y/y in November increases the probability of another 50bp interest rate cut at the central bank’s meeting next Friday although, on balance, we think a 25bp... 6th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Oct.) The batch of Russian activity data for October suggest that the economy started Q4 on a firm footing following Q3’s stronger-than-expected 1.7% y/y expansion. But with inflation likely to fall further... 20th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3 2019) The pick-up in Russian GDP growth to 1.7% y/y in Q3 appears to have been driven by a turnaround in the agricultural and wholesale trade sectors. But even though growth has strengthened, falling... 13th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Oct.) The decline in Russian inflation to 3.8% y/y in October is likely to be followed by further falls in the coming months, providing scope for the central bank’s easing cycle to run a little further. We... 6th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s easing cycle shifts up a gear The Russian central bank’s decision to opt for a 50bp rate cut today (to 6.50%) and the dovish tone of the accompanying statement support our view that the easing cycle has further to run. As things... 25th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian retail sales set for a tepid recovery The weakness in Russian retail sales looks close to bottoming out, but any turnaround will be modest. This is one reason to think that the overall recovery in GDP growth will be weak and that the... 23rd October 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) The soft Russian activity data for September suggest that GDP growth over Q3 as a whole was in line with Q2’s sluggish outturn of 0.9% y/y. Coming alongside low inflation, another 25bp interest rate... 17th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Sep.) The fall in Russian inflation to the central bank’s target of 4.0% y/y in September is likely to be followed by a further decline in the headline rate over the coming months. We currently expect an... 4th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) Turkey’s PMI for September provides further evidence that the economy recovered strongly in the third quarter and with policy set to be loosened further, the recovery has some legs. Meanwhile, our... 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) The batch of Russian activity data for August suggest that the economy maintained a steady, if not inspiring, pace of growth in Q3. With growth unlikely to pick up markedly over the rest of the year... 18th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: CBR governor keeps door open to easing Russian central bank governor, Elvira Nabiullina, used the post-meeting press conference to hint at a possible further rate cut by year-end, supporting our view that the easing cycle has further to... 6th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia CPI (Aug.) The fall in Russian inflation to a weaker-than-expected 4.3% y/y last month strengthens our view that the central bank will lower its policy rate by 25bp when it meets tomorrow. Soft underlying price... 5th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) July’s Russia activity data suggest that, after recovering slightly in Q2, the economy may have lost a bit of momentum at the start of Q3. This, combined with easing inflationary pressures, will leave... 19th August 2019 · 2 mins read
