Global Economics Update PMIs imply that goods shortages are pushing up prices The global manufacturing PMI held broadly steady in May as a sharp drop in India’s survey was offset by rises in other major economies whose recoveries appear to be continuing unabated. Meanwhile... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the commodity currency divergence Several emerging market commodity currencies have struggled this year, despite the rally in most commodity prices. We think that most will face further headwinds, even the current valuation gap may... 1st June 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2021) The improvement in Russian GDP growth to -1.0% y/y in Q1 was largely driven by a slight easing of containment measures as virus cases continued to fall during the winter. The vaccine rollout is... 17th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Apr.) The fall in Russian inflation to 5.5% y/y in April was largely driven by base effects that pulled down food inflation as underlying price pressures remained strong. The central bank will continue to... 7th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR signals further tightening to tackle inflation Russia’s central bank (CBR) hiked its policy rate by 50bp, to 5.00%, at today’s meeting and the accompanying statement strengthened the central bank’s hawkish message about the need for additional... 23rd April 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) Russian industrial production and retail sales figures showed a marked divergence in growth in March, but the big picture is that activity has picked up recently and that the economy held up well in... 20th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update US-Russia escalation as sanctions target sovereign debt The decision by the US to impose sanctions on newly-issued Russian sovereign debt has caused a sell-off in the ruble and sovereign bonds today, but we think any further market fallout or the... 15th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: looser fiscal policy in store, but no splurge The resilience of tax receipts and the improved outlook for oil and gas revenues should provide scope for Russia’s government to soften its grip on the public finances and ease policy over the next... 13th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.) The further rise in Russia’s headline inflation rate last month, to 5.8% y/y, is likely to prompt the central bank to follow up March’s interest rate hike with further tightening. We have pencilled in... 6th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q4 2020) The improvement in Russian GDP growth to -1.8% y/y in Q4 was driven by a rebound in household consumption and investment and confirms that the economy held up well during the second virus wave. This... 1st April 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Feb.) Russian industrial production and retail sales figures for February are consistent with GDP falling by around 4.0% y/y at the start of the year. The economy is struggling to gain momentum and, with... 19th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian inflation now too strong for the CBR to ignore A series of strong inflation readings in Russia have put the central bank’s ability to meet its inflation target over the next year under threat and brought forward the prospect of monetary tightening... 10th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Feb.) The larger-than-expected rise in Russian inflation to a more than four-year high of 5.7% y/y in February is likely to be followed by another increase in March which poses a serious challenge to the... 5th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish CBR closes the door on further easing Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key policy rate on hold at 4.25% today and the hawkish message about pro-inflationary risks means that there is no room for further easing. The CBR set the... 12th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR closing the door on its easing cycle The central bank of Russia (CBR) left its key policy rate unchanged at 4.25% as expected today but the accompanying communications delivered a clear hawkish shift. With headline inflation likely to... 18th December 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weak recovery expected in Moscow office rents Moscow offices rents were under pressure even before the onset of COVID-19 and a further steep decline is expected this year. Domestic economic factors will be more supportive in 2021, but this is... 17th November 2020 · 3 mins read
