Emerging Europe Economics Update Rates on hold in Russia, but easing cycle is not over The decision by Russia’s central bank to leave its policy rate on hold at 4.25% today is likely to mark a pause rather than an end to its easing cycle. The central bank will maintain its cautious... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Digging into Russia’s consumer recovery The rebound in Russian consumer spending since April has been supported by a more active fiscal policy stance than we had expected. Although the pace of growth will soften, spending is likely to... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slump in the Russian ruble has further to run The Russian ruble looks set to lose further ground over the coming months as geopolitical tensions and the threat of international sanctions ratchet up. We expect the ruble to drift towards 80/$ by... 8th September 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.) Russian inflation rose to 3.6% y/y in August and we think that it will edge up a bit further over the coming months. This shouldn’t trouble the central bank too much, but the threat of sanctions and... 4th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Low interest rates will be the new normal in Russia The neutral interest rate has become one of the hot topics in Russian monetary policy over the past year and the downward revision to the central bank’s estimate of the neutral rate in July marks the... 26th August 2020 · 24 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Protests in Belarus and what they mean for the region The escalation of protests in Belarus and calls for EU sanctions pose a major threat to political stability in the country and the economic outlook, but a downturn in Belarus’ economy would have... 17th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2020) The smaller-than-expected fall in Russian GDP of 8.5% y/y in Q2 confirms that the downturn in Russia’s economy wasn’t as bad as had been feared as the crisis unfolded earlier this year. The early... 11th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jul.) The rise in Russian inflation to 3.4% y/y in July is likely to be followed by a further modest increase over the next few months, but this shouldn’t prevent the central bank from cutting the policy... 6th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia opts for small rate cut, cautious easing ahead Russia’s central bank cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.25%, today and continued to provide signals that further easing lies in store. But the communications suggest that the pace of easing will slow... 24th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia’s easing cycle entering new waters Russia’s central bank has lowered its policy rate to a post-Soviet low during the current crisis and, with the economy likely to recover slowly and inflation set to remain subdued, further monetary... 16th July 2020 · 21 mins read
Commodities Update The Siberian heatwave and commodities Unseasonably hot weather in Siberia in recent months has weighed on wheat production and damaged industrial infrastructure. Scientists think that future heatwaves in the region will become more common... 16th July 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.) Russian inflation rose to 3.2% y/y in June and we think that it will rise a bit further over the coming months. But this increase should prove temporary and inflation is likely to remain below the... 8th July 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine in the spotlight, Russia’s sanctions threat The resignation of Ukraine’s central bank governor, Yakiv Smolii, this week is unlikely to upend the country’s IMF deal, but failure to replace him with a credible candidate or backsliding on recent... 3rd July 2020 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia cuts rates to a record low, more easing to come Russia’s central bank (CBR) didn’t disappoint at today’s meeting, cutting the key policy rate by 100bp to a new post-Soviet low of 4.50%. With disinflationary forces proving stronger than expected and... 19th June 2020 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (May) Russian inflation eased to 3.0% y/y in May and the underlying picture is that inflation has been much weaker than many expected just a few months ago. Price pressures are likely to remain muted which... 5th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How vulnerable are Russia’s banks? A deep dive into Russia’s banking system provides comfort that, while there are pockets of vulnerability beneath the surface, the economy is unlikely to experience a financial crisis like it did in... 20th May 2020 · 5 mins read
