Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (June) The PMIs for June suggest that manufacturing sectors strengthened in Turkey, Czechia and Poland but weakened in Russia. Meanwhile, in Czechia and Poland, supply chain disruptions intensified, and... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s quick turnaround, Russia’s latest intervention The sharp improvement in Turkey’s virus situation has brightened the near-term outlook and presents a risk to our view that the central bank will start an aggressive easing cycle in the coming months... 25th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Recovery takes hold and inflation pressures build Economic activity across Emerging Europe is rebounding strongly now that virus waves have passed and restrictions have been lifted. The recovery in Q2 looks to have been strongest in Russia, Israel... 24th June 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: consumer spending recovery has further to run Russian household spending looks set to rebound strongly this year as “excess” savings are drawn down, credit continues to expand, government support boosts incomes, and the labour market recovers... 15th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ruble gains, Hungary policy rift, stronger CEE currencies The Russian ruble appreciated to its strongest level against the dollar since last July this week and the balance of forces now increasingly favours further gains, but a lot depends on geopolitics and... 11th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: further rate hikes to tame inflation pressures Russia’s central bank (CBR) raised its policy rate by another 50bp, to 5.50%, at today’s meeting and the accompanying communications delivered a much more hawkish tone about inflation risks and the... 11th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (May) The larger-than-expected rise in Russian inflation to 6.0% y/y in May was driven by broad-based increases in both food and non-food goods and we think that the balance of factors is now firmly tilted... 7th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) Russian activity data for April were relatively strong and suggest that a sustained recovery is taking hold in Q2 thanks to an easing of virus restrictions on services sectors and continued rebound in... 4th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect US Treasury yields to continue falling We don’t expect the small fall in long-dated US Treasury yields following May’s US Employment Report to last, and continue to expect yields to resume their earlier rise before long. 4th June 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs imply that goods shortages are pushing up prices The global manufacturing PMI held broadly steady in May as a sharp drop in India’s survey was offset by rises in other major economies whose recoveries appear to be continuing unabated. Meanwhile... 1st June 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the commodity currency divergence Several emerging market commodity currencies have struggled this year, despite the rally in most commodity prices. We think that most will face further headwinds, even the current valuation gap may... 1st June 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2021) The improvement in Russian GDP growth to -1.0% y/y in Q1 was largely driven by a slight easing of containment measures as virus cases continued to fall during the winter. The vaccine rollout is... 17th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Apr.) The fall in Russian inflation to 5.5% y/y in April was largely driven by base effects that pulled down food inflation as underlying price pressures remained strong. The central bank will continue to... 7th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR signals further tightening to tackle inflation Russia’s central bank (CBR) hiked its policy rate by 50bp, to 5.00%, at today’s meeting and the accompanying statement strengthened the central bank’s hawkish message about the need for additional... 23rd April 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) Russian industrial production and retail sales figures showed a marked divergence in growth in March, but the big picture is that activity has picked up recently and that the economy held up well in... 20th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update US-Russia escalation as sanctions target sovereign debt The decision by the US to impose sanctions on newly-issued Russian sovereign debt has caused a sell-off in the ruble and sovereign bonds today, but we think any further market fallout or the... 15th April 2021 · 4 mins read
