Emerging Markets Economics Focus The pandemic and EM scarring risks The pandemic is likely to inflict lasting damage on potential growth in economies in much of Latin America, Africa and South and Southeast Asia, adding to the structural headwinds that they already... 9th September 2021 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.) Russian inflation rose to a fresh five-year high of 6.7% y/y in August and, while there are some tentative signs that price pressures have started to soften recently, we think the central bank’s... 8th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s inflation surge, situation stabilising in Israel The surge in Polish inflation to a fresh two-decade high in August has shown no sign of prompting a more hawkish shift at the central bank. But with inflation likely to remain stuck above target for... 3rd September 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) Russia’s activity data for July show that industrial production has come off the boil, but retail sales continued to expand strongly, and the strength of consumer demand will probably keep the central... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery comes off the boil The EM manufacturing PMIs for August suggest that virus disruptions and supply chain constraints held back output in much of Emerging Asia. Manufacturing slowed in most other EMs too, although there... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (August) The PMIs for August suggest that manufacturing conditions have softened in Q3 as output and new orders fell further from their recent highs. More than anything, it looks like conditions are... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack China’s growth slowdown may hold back EM equities We think slower growth in China will continue to weigh on the country’s stock market, as well as those of some other emerging markets (EMs). 27th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s giveaways, NBP’s hawkishness, Turkey and SDRs Russia's government this week unveiled new lump-sum payments to pensioners and military personnel ahead of September's election, strengthening our above-consensus views on inflation and interest rates... 27th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Em. Europe & Lat Am leading the recovery in Q3 Most economies in Emerging Europe and Latin America look set for a strong third quarter and, while the near-term outlook for Southeast Asian economies remains challenging, high-frequency mobility... 25th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Watch Oil prices would still fall even if OPEC expands In this Energy Watch, we discuss the future of OPEC and its role in the oil market. While we suspect that its membership may expand, we think that its ability to influence oil prices will fall over... 19th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Asia bucks the monetary policy trend Several EM central banks have continued to tighten monetary policy over the past month or so in response to strong reopening rebounds (Chile, Czech Republic, Hungary) and/or rising inflation concerns... 18th August 2021 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Five years on from the “End of a Golden Age” Five years ago this October, we published a piece arguing that the “golden age” for emerging markets had ended and that they were entering a period of permanently weaker growth. Since then, many of... 18th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2021) The larger-than-expected 10.3% y/y expansion in Russian GDP in Q2 suggests that the economy returned to its pre-pandemic level as growth was driven by broad-based strength across sectors. Growth is... 13th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Russia’s lending boom: time to ring the alarm bells? The strength of mortgage and unsecured consumer lending in Russia has concerned the central bank and raises the threat of a build-up of financial vulnerabilities, but for now we think these risks are... 9th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jul.) Although Russian headline inflation came in at a slightly-weaker-than expected 6.5% y/y, that masked a worryingly strong rise in core inflation that’s likely to trigger further monetary tightening. We... 6th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NBP a bit more hawkish, but poles apart from the CBR A slew of comments from policymakers at Poland’s central bank (the NBP) this week suggest that the probability of the central bank delivering a rate hike before the end of this year has increased... 6th August 2021 · 9 mins read
