Europe Economics Update The Ukraine crisis and the euro-zone revisited While the simmering tensions over Ukraine could keep euro-zone inflation higher for longer than most expect, we think that it is unlikely to put the ECB off plans to start normalising policy this year... 16th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Assessing the risks of a Russian invasion of Ukraine In this Update, we discuss the possible ramifications for the global oil and natural gas markets of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Much would depend on whether Western sanctions are placed on Russian... 16th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia-Ukraine and the impact on the rest of the region The rest of Emerging Europe is particularly exposed if a further escalation of Russia-Ukraine tensions lead to higher global energy prices and disruptions to commodity exports, with Bulgaria and the... 16th February 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update China-Taiwan ≠ Russia-Ukraine A Russian invasion of Ukraine would not make a Chinese attack on Taiwan more likely and would not undermine the willingness or ability of Taiwan’s allies to come to its defence. 15th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from emerging markets have intensified over the past month as growing tensions between Ukraine and Russia and the prospect of tighter global monetary policy have caused risk... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recapping the Russia-Ukraine crisis Tensions between Russia and the West have intensified and rattled global financial markets. Amidst the uncertain situation, this Update brings together some of the key implications of the crisis for... 15th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Polish hawks, Russia-Ukraine latest, Czech budget Comments from Poland’s central bank Governor Glapinski this week underlined the hawkish shift from the NBP and support our view that interest rates will rise to at least 4.5% in this cycle. Meanwhile... 11th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: tightening far from over as inflation surges Russia’s central bank (CBR) maintained the pace of its tightening cycle today with another 100bp interest rate hike, to 9.50%, and the hawkish communications suggest that the cycle will not stop until... 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) & Consumer Prices (Jan.) The latest data show that Russia’s economy grew strongly in December and that consumer price inflation rose to 8.7% y/y in January. The inflation reading was weaker than expected, but inflation looks... 9th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What higher oil prices mean for EMs If oil prices were to remain at their elevated levels, they could push current account and budget balances into surplus in many of the EM producers. It would also ease any concerns about dollar pegs... 8th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Russia/Ukraine: near-term inflation; long-term decoupling A Russian invasion of Ukraine or severe ratcheting up of sanctions would add as much as 2%-pts to inflation in DMs, particularly in Europe. Given the inflationary backdrop and hawkish signals from... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q4 2021) & Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The strong 0.9% q/q expansion of Czech GDP in Q4 is consistent with data showing a recovery in industry and we think this is likely to continue this year. Meanwhile, more timely manufacturing PMIs for... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s drive for “lira-isation”, Russia’s market sell-off The upwards revision to the Turkish central bank's 2022 inflation forecast this week was just a matter of catching up with reality and the more interesting detail was the central bank’s emphasis on... 28th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Industry shifts into gear amid signs of easing shortages Industry across Emerging Europe turned a corner in Q4 as auto production rebounded strongly. This comes amid signs that supply shortages are starting to ease; our proprietary shortages dashboard... 27th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Bonds & Equities Four points on Russia’s market sell-off The sell-off in Russia’s financial markets in response to the reassessment of the likelihood of conflict with Ukraine has pushed up the risk premium on Russian assets to a similar level to that which... 27th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Mounting headwinds to take the shine off the recovery We expect regional GDP growth to come in below expectations this year as high inflation erodes households’ real incomes and policy becomes more restrictive. Despite this view on the growth outlook, we... 20th January 2022 · 29 mins read
