Emerging Markets Economics Update Five points on the latest virus developments in EMs The COVID-19 situation in many EMs has improved markedly over the past month or so as new infections have fallen sharply and vaccine rollouts have gathered pace. That said, the recent surge in virus... 5th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Cautiously optimistic on Moscow office rents While the latest virus outbreak has clouded the near-term outlook, a tight supply picture and steady employment growth mean that prime Moscow office rents should return to growth in 2022. 4th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Oct.) The further rise in Russian inflation to 8.1% y/y last month paves the way for the central bank to hike the one-week repo rate by another 75bp (to 8.25%) when it meets in December. Note: We’re holding... 3rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The manufacturing PMIs in October showed that supply disruptions took a greater toll at the start of Q4, with industrial production growth in Turkey slowing and Czech industry likely to have... 1st November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) Russia’s economy enjoyed a strong end to Q3, but the country’s severe COVID-19 outbreak has clouded the outlook more recently and is likely to cause growth to soften in Q4. 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Virus outbreaks shine spotlight on vaccine hesitancy The surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths in Eastern Europe has prompted the re-imposition of restrictions and it looks like measures will be stepped up, weighing on recoveries in Q4. Tight restrictions... 28th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the winners and losers from high energy prices Oil, gas and coal prices have reached multi-year highs in recent weeks and this Update takes a look at some of the implications for the region. In short, an improvement in Russia’s terms of trade has... 28th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Renewed virus waves cast clouds over the recovery COVID-19 outbreaks have surged across the region in the past month. Record high daily cases have been reported in Russia, Romania, Bulgaria and Latvia and infections are rising sharply elsewhere... 26th October 2021 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR accelerates its tightening cycle again Russia’s central bank (CBR) stepped up the pace of its tightening cycle again at today’s meeting with a larger-than-expected 75bp interest rate hike, to 7.50%, and the hawkish tone of the accompanying... 22nd October 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Near-term recovery to face stronger headwinds The region has experienced a rapid recovery, but the re-opening boost has now faded and the region is likely to face stronger headwinds in the near term due to surging COVID-19 cases, rising inflation... 20th October 2021 · 28 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Supply shortages take their toll The supply shortages that have affected many DMs have also intensified in emerging economies over the past couple of months. The automotive sector has been hit hard by global semiconductor shortages... 18th October 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Erdogan playing with fire, Russia’s commodity boom After putting the final nails in the coffin of the Turkish central bank's credibility with last month's surprise interest rate cut, the grave started to be dug this week with the firing of three MPC... 15th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Car woes to weigh on recoveries in Mexico & CEE The supply constraints that have hit global vehicle output have probably reduced the level of GDP by a modest 0.1-0.2% in most EM auto producers, but some countries like Czechia, Hungary and Mexico... 15th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Russian inflation accelerated to a fresh five-year high of 7.4% y/y in September and, while this was mainly driven by a sharp increase in food inflation, the central bank is likely to continue its... 6th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) Russia’s hard activity data for August showed that industry has continued to struggle while loose fiscal policy has supported consumer spending. We think that consumer demand should hold up well at... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Loose fiscal policy in CEE, Russia’s natural gas windfall Government draft budgets approved for 2022 this week in Czechia and Poland and further details of social support in Hungary suggest that fiscal policy will remain supportive of growth in Central... 1st October 2021 · 10 mins read
