Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Defiant NBP, Turkish policymakers tighten their grip Poland's central bank continued its tightening cycle this week, but recent comments from policymakers have made us concerned that it is failing to appreciate the extent, persistence and possible... 7th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Energy Update European natural gas prices surging on supply fears We always expected European natural gas prices to remain high over the winter because of low stocks, but heightened uncertainty about supply from Russia has caused prices to skyrocket again. Assuming... 21st December 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Omicron? Central banks focusing firmly on inflation Inflation pressures have shown no signs of letting up across Emerging Europe, with headline inflation rates surging to multi-year highs in November. Producer price inflation has hit rates not seen in... 20th December 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR accelerates tightening amid surging inflation Russia’s central bank (CBR) stepped up the pace of its tightening cycle today with a 100bp interest rate hike, to 8.50%, and the hawkish communications reinforce the message that it will not hesitate... 17th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: Retail to make a comeback in 2022 With the recovery running out of steam and the emergence of the Omicron variant posing a downside risk, the economic backdrop is likely to provide less support to the property recovery over the coming... 16th December 2021 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine tensions and the latest sanctions threat The newswires have been abuzz this week with reports of a potential Russian military conflict with Ukraine and the US has threatened sanctions which, if imposed, would clearly cause pain for Russia's... 10th December 2021 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.) The rise in Russian inflation to 8.4% y/y last month reinforces our view that the central bank will hike the one-week repo rate by 75bp (to 8.25%) when it meets in December – that’s a larger hike than... 8th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Oct.) Russia’s economy made a mixed start to Q4 as industrial production recovered while retail sales growth slowed sharply. With the country’s severe virus outbreak and low vaccine coverage set to keep... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The manufacturing PMIs in November were surprisingly strong across the board, but with supply chains stretched and the emergence of the Omicron variant clouding the outlook, there are reasons to be... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Virus outbreaks diverge, but Omicron a renewed risk COVID-19 outbreaks in Central and Eastern Europe have diverged in the past month and that may continue in December, but the emergence of the potentially highly-transmissible Omicron variant could... 30th November 2021 · 16 mins read
Energy Update Taking stock of the European natural gas market European natural gas prices were in the news again last week, soaring by 18%. Given stocks are still low and there are few signs of extra flows from Russia, we think that prices will remain high in... 23rd November 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly The energy crisis rumbles on … This week showed that the energy crisis is not in the rear-view mirror just yet. Germany’s energy regulator suspended its certification process of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline on Tuesday, owing to... 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3 2021) The softer-than-expected 4.3% y/y expansion in Russia’s GDP in Q3 suggests that the recovery lost momentum during the summer and, with the severe virus outbreak likely to take its toll on domestic... 17th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly CEE inflation worries mount, Turkish lira closing in on 10 Inflation data out of Central and Eastern Europe this week provided for ugly viewing and with headline rates likely to rise further above central bank's targets in the coming months, this will keep... 12th November 2021 · 11 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We expect LatAm equities to trail those in EM EMEA We think that MSCI’s Emerging Markets (EM) Latin America Index will continue to underperform its EM EMEA Index over the next couple of years, albeit not to the same extent as it has in 2021 so far. 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rate hikes to take some heat out of growth and inflation The sharp tightening of monetary policy in the region will strengthen the preference for savings, dampen lending growth and raise debt servicing costs next year. It is plausible to think that higher... 9th November 2021 · 5 mins read
