Energy Update An Iran deal will only partially ease oil supply fears As fears over Russian oil supply mount, negotiations between Iran and world powers on reviving the Iran nuclear deal have been advancing in Vienna. If the nuclear deal is revived, we think there will... 2nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How big is the Russia default risk? Russia has already suspended the transfer of coupon payments on local-law sovereign debt to foreign investors, and the likelihood that the government and companies are unable or unwilling to make... 2nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update One chart to watch on Russia’s banking sector The spread of Russian interbank interest rates over the central bank’s policy rate – which was hiked aggressively on Monday – has widened pointing to some stress in the banking sector. But for now it... 2nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics How could Europe cope without Russian energy? The EU would have a number of options to help compensate if Russian gas supplies were to be turned off, but in practice we suspect that some degree of power rationing would be needed. Past episodes of... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry holds up, but war in Ukraine a major risk February's manufacturing PMIs point to decent industrial growth last month and support our view that the impact from Omicron waves on EM industry will be limited. However, the surveys suggest that... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia macro update: sharp contraction incoming The ratcheting up of Western sanctions, alongside a tightening of financial conditions and the prospect of a banking crisis, mean that Russia’s economy is likely to experience a sharp contraction this... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update US economy insulated from Ukraine war The war in Ukraine will prevent US inflation from falling as much as it otherwise would have in the coming months, but it will have little impact on the real economy, so we doubt it will stop the Fed. 1st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Three ways that Russia-Ukraine could impact gold We expect that the rise in the gold price so far this year will continue in the near term as safe-haven demand builds. That said, we expect that the price will fall when/if tensions cool. But the... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The war in Ukraine and the impact on EMs The war in Ukraine and the ratcheting up of sanctions on Russia will have knock-on effects on the rest of the emerging world mainly through its impact on supply chains and commodity prices. Some EMs... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Russia’s financial markets staring into the abyss New sanctions on Russia have led to a sharp plunge in the ruble, and an effective freeze of most of the country’s financial markets. We think that the outlook now depends mainly on the extent to which... 28th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia and SWIFT: key questions answered In this Update, we answer the key questions about what the exclusion of Russian banks for SWIFT means for Russia and the rest of the world. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this... 28th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ukraine crisis won’t cause euro-zone recession The Ukraine crisis will be a drag on the euro-zone economy due to its effect on trade with Russia and the impact of higher energy prices on household consumption. However, this will be cushioned by... 28th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How vulnerable are Russia’s FX reserves to sanctions? The sanctions imposed on Russia’s central bank freeze a significant portion of its foreign currency assets, rendering at least half largely unusable. The sharp tightening of capital controls today... 28th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Sanctions on Russia to keep nickel price elevated Restrictions on Russian trade will probably lead to lower nickel supply and keep prices elevated. As a result, we have raised our nickel price forecast, despite a relatively subdued outlook for demand... 28th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Russia-Ukraine and the risks to commercial property The Russian invasion of Ukraine has added significant new uncertainty for investors. We expect Moscow property will take a substantial hit, but the impact on the wider European property market will be... 28th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s banks on the brink The ratcheting up of Western sanctions over the weekend has left Russian banks on the edge of crisis. They face both large deposit withdrawals and the prospect of a rise in non-performing loans, which... 28th February 2022 · 3 mins read
