Emerging Europe Economics Update Energy embargo to deepen Russia’s contraction The US and UK energy embargos will reduce Russian exports by just 0.6% of GDP, but adding in the EU’s plan to reduce Russian natural gas imports takes the total loss of export revenues closer to 2% of... 10th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor War in Ukraine heightens risks in fragile EMs Financial markets in Central Europe have been hit hard by the contagion from the war in Ukraine, but spill-overs to other EMs have been limited so far. If the war were to result in a sustained period... 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The costs of Russia’s shift towards isolation It is highly likely that the war in Ukraine will accelerate Russia’s shift towards isolation and into autarky. This will prevent Russia from catching up with more advanced economies, while the West... 10th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Feb.) Russian inflation rose to 9.2% y/y in February and, more importantly, the weekly CPI figures up to 4 th March (also just released) show that the collapse in the ruble led to a particularly sharp 2.2%... 9th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics EU’s pivot away from Russian gas will come at a price While the plan to reduce Europe’s reliance on Russian gas this year seems achievable, it will only lock in higher-for-longer gas prices and prolong the squeeze on household incomes. 9th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A deep dive into Russian corporate debt risks The growing list of countries imposing restrictions on Russia’s energy exports has raised the likelihood of a deeper contraction in Russia’s economy this year and a wave of corporate defaults. This... 9th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of an end to Russian energy trade We think that a complete ban on Russian energy imports would cause the prices of Brent crude oil and European natural gas to surge to $160pb and €300/MWh in the near term and settle at still very high... 7th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Weekly Prices could rise further Although many commodity prices are already back to levels last seen in 2008, there is still scope for prices to rise further if Western sanctions are extended to cover energy commodities. (At the end... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia plunges into economic & financial turmoil Russia has fallen into chaos and we’ll get a clearer sense next week of the impact that sanctions are having on the economy. A dollar bond repayment by Gazprom on Monday will be a litmus test of the... 4th March 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack The Russia-Ukraine war and currency markets The dollar has generally strengthened since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while European currencies have generally been the hardest hit by the war. But unlike in most risk-off episodes, the currencies... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Precious Metals Update Sanctions are the catalyst for palladium price gains The constraints on Russian supply will work in tandem with an improving demand-side picture from auto production to keep palladium prices elevated. As a result, we have revised up our price forecasts... 4th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Ukraine war puts ECB plans on hold At next week’s monetary policy meeting, the Governing Council will stress that it will ensure banks have ample liquidity and that financial stability will be preserved while implementing EU sanctions... 3rd March 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ukraine war to keep fiscal stance loose for longer The EU’s decision to suspend its debt reduction rule for another year gives countries the green light to ramp up spending on defence and cushion the blow from higher energy prices. Depending on how... 3rd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A deep dive into supply-chain links with Russia While supply-chain links between the EU and Russia and Ukraine are small, shortages of seemingly obscure inputs can cause significant disruption, and add to price pressures, if alternatives cannot be... 3rd March 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China can’t shield Russia from sanctions The financial sanctions that have been imposed on Russia by the West put significant practical constraints on China’s dealings with Russia even where they don’t restrict them directly. There is little... 2nd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The economic consequences of the war One immediate effect of the war in Ukraine will be to push Russia several places down the league table of the world’s largest economies. However, the impact on the global economy over the long run... 2nd March 2022 · 5 mins read
