Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Emerging Europe: War reinforces weak values outlook The war in Ukraine will have spillover effects for property in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), albeit that Russia will be far worst hit. Economic growth is expected to be slower, which will weigh on... 30th March 2022 · 18 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia/Ukraine spillovers to hit CEE economies hard There are already clear signs of spillovers in Central and Eastern Europe from the war in Ukraine and we think that the overall hit to GDP growth in the region this year will amount to 1.0-1.5%-pts... 29th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian markets re-open, gas payments & refugees The resumption of trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange this week marked the first steps towards rolling back crisis measures, but policymaking in Russia remains erratic as highlighted by President... 25th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What might be the impact of wider embargo on Russian energy? While not our base case, a complete Western ban on imports of energy commodities from Russia would probably send the prices of many soaring. We suspect that such an outcome would have some key... 24th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Counting the cost of going cold turkey with Russian oil An EU embargo on Russian oil would push up oil prices and exacerbate the cost-of-living crisis facing consumers. However, while there would be logistical challenges, oil supplies would be easier to... 23rd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Contagion risks to CEE banks likely to be limited A close look at banking sector linkages in Central and Eastern Europe provides encouragement that there is little direct exposure to Russia and Ukraine and that any indirect exposure through a Western... 21st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s inflation shock, default & peace talks Russia’s default saga seems to be settled for the time being, with creditors reportedly now receiving scheduled Eurobond payments, but the fact that it came so close to default suggests that sanctions... 18th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR trying to stick to orthodoxy The post-meeting speech by Russia’s central bank (CBR) governor Elvira Nabiullina made clear that policymakers think sanctions and autarky are here to stay for the long term. But at the same time... 18th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian banks: immediate crisis averted, but risks loom Russia’s banking sector has held up better than might have been expected through the initial stage of the crisis due to large, timely and widespread policy support. But banks will now face the... 16th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update First signs of Ukraine war’s impact on euro-zone firms The latest surveys show that the war in Ukraine has severely dented euro-zone investors’ and companies’ perceptions of the outlook. This is consistent with our view that the war will cause a... 15th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The implications of Russia’s impending default Russia’s government appears to be heading towards a default on its foreign currency debts for the first time since the Bolshevik revolution. This won’t affect the Russian government’s ability to... 14th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Russian economic crisis will hit Cyprus hard Cyprus is by far the most exposed euro-zone economy to the collapse in Russia’s economy and it now looks very likely to fall into recession in the coming quarters. In this Update, we take a look at... 11th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily China’s equity market, decoupling, and the Russia-Ukraine war Even if a repeat of their dismal performance in 2021 is unlikely, we don’t expect a big rebound in China’s equities this year. 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s downturn in full swing and spillovers to CEE Russia's economy is in the early stages of a deep recession and we now expect a 12% contraction this year. Elsewhere, we've revised down our GDP growth forecasts by 1.0-1.3%-pts in Central and Eastern... 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Energy Update Can Russia evade sanctions on its crude exports? Even if the West bans crude imports from Russia entirely, the Iranian experience suggests that there will still be ways for Russia to get its oil onto global markets. But any workarounds would take... 11th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Russian energy sanctions, non-Gulf external strains build The US and UK embargoes on Russian energy exports could open the door for the Gulf countries to raise oil production more quickly and implement their long-term strategies of capturing market share... 10th March 2022 · 6 mins read
