Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.)

The rise in Russian inflation to 8.6% y/y in June, alongside weekly figures suggesting that an even larger rise is possible in July, seals the deal on an interest rate hike later this month. We now...

10th July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

The hawks come out in their droves

Inflation data out of the region this week as well as comments from central bank officials strengthen our view that interest rates are likely to be hiked again in some places (potentially as large as...

5th July 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Activity Data (May)

The latest activity data suggest that Russia’s economy continued to motor along in May, driven by stronger growth in industry. The economy is clearly overheating and this continues to fuel inflation...

3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.)

The manufacturing PMIs for June provide encouraging signs that a rebalancing of Turkey’s economy is underway, with domestic demand weakening and inflation pressures softening. But in Russia, the...

1st July 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Consumer Prices (May)

The further rise in Russian in inflation to 8.3% y/y in May was stronger than expected, and means that an interest rate hike at the central bank’s next meeting in July now looks all but certain. While...

14th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Jun. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With economic activity strengthening across Emerging Europe and inflationary pressures...

13th June 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Turkey FX reserves, CEE rebound, ECB starts easing

The rebound in Turkey’s FX reserves, with one key measure (net reserves excluding FX swaps) turning positive for the first time in four years, is a necessary part of the policy shift underway and...

7th June 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Jun.)

Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key policy rate on hold at 16.00% but delivered a much more hawkish message at today’s meeting. Inflation concerns are likely to persist for some time and we think...

7th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economic Outlook

Growth strengthening, inflation risks resurfacing

Activity strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1 and we expect this to be sustained over the coming quarters, with GDP growth in most economies exceeding consensus expectations in 2024. This is...

6th June 2024 · 22 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia Activity Data (Apr.)

Russia’s economy appears to have had a slightly softer start to Q2, with industrial production and retail sales growth both slowing in April. Still, the latest indicators for May have remained strong...

5th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Manufacturing PMIs (May)

The manufacturing PMIs for May show a divergence in the region, with conditions improving slightly in Czechia and Russia’s economy continuing to boom. But industry weakened sharply in Poland and...

3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Russia tax hikes, Israel rates, European elections

The tax hikes announced by the Russian finance ministry this week will help to plug the hole created by the growing military budget, but won’t deliver the scale of fiscal tightening needed to stop the...

31st May 2024 · 9 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Russia: bond sell-off intensifies as the war effort steps up

Sovereign bond yields in Russia have surged to multi-year highs this year as markets have increasingly questioned the trade-off between the war effort on the one hand and policymakers’ ability to...

29th May 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (May 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Economic growth strengthened across Emerging Europe in Q1, and leading indicators suggest...

22nd May 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Russia GDP (Q1) and Consumer Prices (Apr.)

The 5.4% y/y rise in Russian GDP in Q1 was a touch stronger than expected and, taken together with the rise in inflation in April, adds further evidence to the view that the war effort is causing the...

17th May 2024 · 2 mins read