Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia plunges into economic & financial turmoil Russia has fallen into chaos and we’ll get a clearer sense next week of the impact that sanctions are having on the economy. A dollar bond repayment by Gazprom on Monday will be a litmus test of the... 4th March 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack The Russia-Ukraine war and currency markets The dollar has generally strengthened since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while European currencies have generally been the hardest hit by the war. But unlike in most risk-off episodes, the currencies... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Precious Metals Update Sanctions are the catalyst for palladium price gains The constraints on Russian supply will work in tandem with an improving demand-side picture from auto production to keep palladium prices elevated. As a result, we have revised up our price forecasts... 4th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Ukraine war puts ECB plans on hold At next week’s monetary policy meeting, the Governing Council will stress that it will ensure banks have ample liquidity and that financial stability will be preserved while implementing EU sanctions... 3rd March 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Ukraine war to keep fiscal stance loose for longer The EU’s decision to suspend its debt reduction rule for another year gives countries the green light to ramp up spending on defence and cushion the blow from higher energy prices. Depending on how... 3rd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A deep dive into supply-chain links with Russia While supply-chain links between the EU and Russia and Ukraine are small, shortages of seemingly obscure inputs can cause significant disruption, and add to price pressures, if alternatives cannot be... 3rd March 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China can’t shield Russia from sanctions The financial sanctions that have been imposed on Russia by the West put significant practical constraints on China’s dealings with Russia even where they don’t restrict them directly. There is little... 2nd March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The economic consequences of the war One immediate effect of the war in Ukraine will be to push Russia several places down the league table of the world’s largest economies. However, the impact on the global economy over the long run... 2nd March 2022 · 5 mins read
Energy Update An Iran deal will only partially ease oil supply fears As fears over Russian oil supply mount, negotiations between Iran and world powers on reviving the Iran nuclear deal have been advancing in Vienna. If the nuclear deal is revived, we think there will... 2nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How big is the Russia default risk? Russia has already suspended the transfer of coupon payments on local-law sovereign debt to foreign investors, and the likelihood that the government and companies are unable or unwilling to make... 2nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update One chart to watch on Russia’s banking sector The spread of Russian interbank interest rates over the central bank’s policy rate – which was hiked aggressively on Monday – has widened pointing to some stress in the banking sector. But for now it... 2nd March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics How could Europe cope without Russian energy? The EU would have a number of options to help compensate if Russian gas supplies were to be turned off, but in practice we suspect that some degree of power rationing would be needed. Past episodes of... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM industry holds up, but war in Ukraine a major risk February's manufacturing PMIs point to decent industrial growth last month and support our view that the impact from Omicron waves on EM industry will be limited. However, the surveys suggest that... 1st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia macro update: sharp contraction incoming The ratcheting up of Western sanctions, alongside a tightening of financial conditions and the prospect of a banking crisis, mean that Russia’s economy is likely to experience a sharp contraction this... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update US economy insulated from Ukraine war The war in Ukraine will prevent US inflation from falling as much as it otherwise would have in the coming months, but it will have little impact on the real economy, so we doubt it will stop the Fed. 1st March 2022 · 3 mins read
Precious Metals Update Three ways that Russia-Ukraine could impact gold We expect that the rise in the gold price so far this year will continue in the near term as safe-haven demand builds. That said, we expect that the price will fall when/if tensions cool. But the... 1st March 2022 · 4 mins read
