Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy is wounded, not screaming in pain Western sanctions have caused activity in certain sectors of Russia’s economy to collapse, but activity has held up reasonably well in key areas such as oil production and less import-dependent... 3rd August 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia cuts gas supplies, signs of slowdown mount The news that Russia's Gazprom has cut gas exports to Europe further this week has increased the likelihood of recessions in many countries at a time that economic activity more broadly is already... 29th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) The Russian industrial production figures for June were surprisingly strong, which likely reflects a pick-up in oil production. But retail sales remain depressed and show no sign of a turnaround. Our... 27th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Europe’s energy crisis: the impact on Russia & CEE The decision by Gazprom to cut natural gas supplies to Europe to 20% of capacity has caused gas prices to surge and raised the risk of energy shortages during the winter. A full gas cut-off would... 27th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine default, Russia return to fiscal normality? Policymakers in Ukraine devalued the hryvnia this week and asked creditors to suspend debt repayments, which will free up funds for the government, but will add to inflation and increase balance sheet... 22nd July 2022 · 7 mins read
Energy Update LNG prices to remain historically high Europe’s heightened demand for LNG will be enough to keep prices high this year and into 2023, particularly as LNG supply growth will be fairly limited. 18th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Energy supply concerns mount, NBP’s wishful thinking Governments across Central Europe ramped up efforts this week to prevent possible shortages of energy during the winter, but there is a growing risk of energy rationing that would push the region's... 15th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.) The further decline in Russia’s headline inflation rate to 15.9% y/y in June confirms that inflation has already passed its peak and we expect price pressures to ease further over the coming months... 8th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) Manufacturing PMIs for June showed further weakness across the region with the exception of Russia, which seems to have benefitted from a shift from imports toward domestic production. There were some... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Where could we be wrong on agricultural prices? We expect that the prices of agricultural commodities will fall back gradually over this year and next, but remain historically high. However, the volatility of prices in recent months and the... 30th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (May) The latest Russian data for May suggest that activity, having declined sharply after Western sanctions were imposed in March, has started to stabilise. Some sectors of manufacturing have benefited... 29th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Tightening cycles still have some way to go Inflation has continued to beat expectations across Emerging Europe over the past month, reaching rates not seen in decades in most countries. It is now weighing more heavily on consumer confidence... 29th June 2022 · 13 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Making sense of a price cap on Russian energy The G7 proposal to impose a cap on the price of Russian oil and gas would introduce new supply-side risks by potentially disrupting Russian energy supplies. This could push global energy prices up... 28th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian sovereign default more symbolic at this stage Russia’s government has now reportedly defaulted on its foreign-currency denominated debt for the first time since 1918, but this is a largely symbolic event that is unlikely to have an additional... 27th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish Fed adds to growing external risks The 75bp interest rate hike by the US Fed this week and expectations for further large hikes in the coming months will have ripple effects across the region. It is likely that Hungary's central bank... 17th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira on shaky ground, Russia dropping capital controls The Turkish lira remained under pressure this week and the raft of policy measures announced on Thursday show that officials are doing whatever they can to avoid interest rate hikes. Capital controls... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
