Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The manufacturing PMIs for November were a mixed bag, but suggest that weakening demand and the fading boost from easing supply shortages has begun to take a heavier toll on industrial sectors in... 1st December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Oct.) The October retail sales and industrial production data for Russia tell more of the same story: an economy that has passed the worst of the downturn, but that is desperately struggling for momentum... 30th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Oil price cap lacking consensus, Russia’s 2023 budget Details about a potential price cap on Russian oil this week of $65-70pb are bringing us to the view that it won't have much of an immediate impact on Russia. We think the combination of the EU oil... 25th November 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Signs of resilience, but recession still likely Growing domestic and external headwinds have taken a bigger toll on the region’s economies in recent months, with growth slowing sharply in Turkey and Israel in Q3 and GDP contracting outright in... 24th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q3 2022) Russia’s economy appeared to stabilise in Q3 as the 4% y/y contraction in GDP reported by Rosstat today is consistent with output rising marginally in seasonally-adjusted q/q terms. That said, there’s... 16th November 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Oct.) Inflation in Russia fell more sharply than expected in October, to 12.6% y/y, but this won’t be enough to prompt the central bank to restart its easing cycle as policymakers are concerned about... 9th November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) There were broad-based falls in Russian industrial production and retail sales in September. The economy may have narrowly avoided another q/q contraction in GDP in Q3 as a whole, but there’s clearly... 2nd November 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Black Sea grain deal blow adds impetus to lofty prices Russia’s decision to withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative will exacerbate sky-high prices and tight global supply, and adds to the likelihood that prices hover around historical highs for the... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q3 2022) & Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The 0.4% q/q contraction in Czech GDP in Q3 provides the first clear sign that the economy as a whole is buckling. We think the economy is now in a recession which will last until early next year... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR’s Nabiullina shows growing inflation concerns Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina’s post-meeting press conference reinforced the message that policymakers are increasingly concerned about pro-inflationary risks, including those... 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 22) 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack External vulnerabilities firmly in the spotlight Current account deficits have widened to alarming levels in Poland, Hungary, Turkey and, most of all, Romania, in recent months which has contributed to the downward pressure on currencies this year –... 26th October 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Region heading for recession Emerging European economies are facing a difficult winter due to the energy crisis as well as headwinds from weakening demand for exports and tightening external financing conditions. We expect almost... 13th October 2022 · 29 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Inflation continued to fall in Russia in September, to 13.7% y/y, but at a much slower rate than in previous months. The recent period of strong disinflation is coming to an end and the central bank... 7th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly War developments destabilising Russia, NBP’s final act The macroeconomic fallout from Russia's call-up of military reservists in September and its formal annexation of Ukrainian territory last week has continued to mount, resulting in tighter Western... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) & Turkey CPI (Sep.) Manufacturing PMIs for September were a mixed bag, but continued to paint a weak picture of industrial activity in Turkey, Czechia and Poland in Q3. In contrast, the downturn in Russian industry... 3rd October 2022 · 3 mins read
