Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Dec.) The latest industrial production and retail sales data for Russia for December were relatively weak, but Q4 was a bit stronger than we had expected and the economy is likely to have expanded slightly... 8th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The manufacturing PMIs for January rose in most countries and add to evidence from other surveys that, while economies in Central and Eastern Europe may struggle in the early part of this year, the... 1st February 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth outlook brightens, but tough times still ahead The growth outlook for 2023 across Central and Eastern Europe has brightened a bit over the past month. Wholesale European natural gas prices have continued to fall sharply and survey measures of... 26th January 2023 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s shrinking surplus, Israel’s political risks The focus in the media this week on Russia’s record current account surplus in 2022 misses the huge deterioration in that surplus at the end of the year. We think the balance of payments will be... 20th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Long Run Update Pouring cold water on the “petroyuan” The process of “global fracturing” that we outlined in our annual Spotlight series last year will remain the dominant macro theme for the next decade. But speculation that it will result in the rise... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Dec.) The softer-than-expected inflation reading in Russia in December, of 11.9% y/y, is likely to be followed by further sharp falls in the coming months towards 4% as last year’s surge in prices passes... 13th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Disinflation takes hold in CEE, Russia’s budget pressures This week brought the clearest evidence yet that the disinflation process in Central Europe is underway as most economies experienced a broad-based easing of price pressures in December. This is... 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Europe’s energy crisis losing its bite The narrative surrounding Europe's energy crisis has shifted in recent weeks as warmer-than-normal winter temperatures have reduced heating demand, gas stocks have remained at high levels and gas... 6th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Sanctions biting in Russia, three key themes for 2023 The fall in the ruble this week is a sign that the new sanctions on Russia’s oil exports are beginning to bite and, if the currency continues to fall, interest rate hikes may come back onto the table... 23rd December 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack CEE central banks still a long way from turning to cuts Central banks across Central and Eastern Europe have left interest rates on hold over the past month or so but their communications have continued to strike a relatively hawkish tone. Hungary’s... 19th December 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Dec. 22) 16th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: shrinking CA surplus to erode sanctions resilience A widening of Russia’s budget deficit next year to 2.5% of GDP will increase pressure on the government to keep a firm grip on non-military spending. But it should be able to finance the shortfall... 14th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Winter recession in motion Emerging European economies are set for recessions this winter as the impact of high inflation, tight financial conditions and weakening external demand take their toll. Our GDP forecasts for 2023 are... 12th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.) Russian inflation fell further last month, to 12.0% y/y, and the breakdown provided further signs that demand remains very weak. But this won’t offset the central bank’s concerns about pro-inflation... 9th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Weekly We will know more about oil supply next week Commodity prices generally rose this week as Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that smaller interest rate rises were likely led to a depreciation in the US dollar. Prices were also supported by news... 2nd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Unpacking the G7 oil price cap ahead of 5th December There are only a few days to go until the next packages of EU sanctions on Russia targeting its oil trade come into force. There are a few key details still left to be finalised, but it seems to us... 2nd December 2022 · 5 mins read
