Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) Manufacturing PMIs for June showed further weakness across the region with the exception of Russia, which seems to have benefitted from a shift from imports toward domestic production. There were some... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update Where could we be wrong on agricultural prices? We expect that the prices of agricultural commodities will fall back gradually over this year and next, but remain historically high. However, the volatility of prices in recent months and the... 30th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (May) The latest Russian data for May suggest that activity, having declined sharply after Western sanctions were imposed in March, has started to stabilise. Some sectors of manufacturing have benefited... 29th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Tightening cycles still have some way to go Inflation has continued to beat expectations across Emerging Europe over the past month, reaching rates not seen in decades in most countries. It is now weighing more heavily on consumer confidence... 29th June 2022 · 13 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Making sense of a price cap on Russian energy The G7 proposal to impose a cap on the price of Russian oil and gas would introduce new supply-side risks by potentially disrupting Russian energy supplies. This could push global energy prices up... 28th June 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian sovereign default more symbolic at this stage Russia’s government has now reportedly defaulted on its foreign-currency denominated debt for the first time since 1918, but this is a largely symbolic event that is unlikely to have an additional... 27th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hawkish Fed adds to growing external risks The 75bp interest rate hike by the US Fed this week and expectations for further large hikes in the coming months will have ripple effects across the region. It is likely that Hungary's central bank... 17th June 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira on shaky ground, Russia dropping capital controls The Turkish lira remained under pressure this week and the raft of policy measures announced on Thursday show that officials are doing whatever they can to avoid interest rate hikes. Capital controls... 10th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR lowers interest rates back to pre-war levels The Russian central bank (CBR) delivered a 150bp interest rate cut to 9.50% today as its focus continued to shift away from inflation risks towards supporting the economy. We think further reductions... 10th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (May) The sharp fall in Russian inflation in May to 17.1% y/y suggests that inflation may have already peaked and price pressures are likely to ease further in the coming months. This will give the central... 8th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) The April activity data for Russia released today show that the imposition of Western sanctions has caused a sharp fall in oil and gas production, a plunge in motor vehicles output and resulted in a... 1st June 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities West’s detachment from Russian energy gathers pace The EU’s sixth round of sanctions on Russia marks yet another defining moment in the West’s detachment from Russia’s energy trade. The sanctions were widely telegraphed in advance, though, so for now... 31st May 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Resilience so far, but weakness on the horizon GDP across Central Europe expanded strongly in Q1 and the latest figures for March and April suggest that activity has remained resilient since the war in Ukraine started. Russia’s economy has not... 31st May 2022 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia default, Hungary budget plans, dovish CNB? A Russian sovereign default moved a step closer this week, although in practice it’s unlikely to have a major impact on the economy. In the meantime, high oil and gas revenues have given the... 27th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Global slowdown and war spillovers to hit CEE exports Exports from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) face growing headwinds, and this feeds into our below consensus view on economic growth in the region. The larger economies in CEE such as Poland and... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
