Emerging Europe Chart Pack Resilience so far, but much tougher times ahead Economies across the region were generally resilient in Q2 despite tightening financial conditions and the war in Ukraine. Russia’s downturn was milder than expected, Turkey’s economy has held up well... 31st August 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Europe’s gas crisis deepens, CBRT financial repression? The latest surge in European wholesale gas and electricity prices has pushed governments to step up policy support to households and shore up energy supplies ahead of winter. Many economies are... 26th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s gas squeeze: the impact so far and next steps Russia’s squeeze on the gas market helped it to generate $50bn (6% of GDP) in total gas exports in the first half of this year, 2-3 times more than normal. Russia’s balance of payments is in such a... 25th August 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2022) Russian GDP contracted by 4% y/y in Q2, consistent with a fall of 6% in seasonally-adjusted q/q terms – a much better performance than analysts had expected and than had seemed likely a few months ago... 12th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s fiscal tightening, currencies rebound Hungary's government has reined in the budget deficit much more quickly than had looked likely since April's election, helping to alleviate the large twin deficits. But this presents a major headwind... 12th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jul.) Russia’s month-on-month deflation deepened in July as consumer prices fell by a larger-than-expected 0.4% m/m (in y/y terms, the headline rate eased to 15.1%). The disinflationary impact of the strong... 10th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The rise in US crude stocks was in large part down to a drop in exports. More interesting was the jump in implied gasoline consumption, which probably reflects the recent fall in prices. This may not... 10th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Rate hikes nearing an end, CBR’s reform ambitions The Czech central bank’s decision to keep its policy rate on hold this week, while Romania’s hiked rates, is representative of a growing divergence between central banks in the region. We think Poland... 5th August 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy is wounded, not screaming in pain Western sanctions have caused activity in certain sectors of Russia’s economy to collapse, but activity has held up reasonably well in key areas such as oil production and less import-dependent... 3rd August 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia cuts gas supplies, signs of slowdown mount The news that Russia's Gazprom has cut gas exports to Europe further this week has increased the likelihood of recessions in many countries at a time that economic activity more broadly is already... 29th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) The Russian industrial production figures for June were surprisingly strong, which likely reflects a pick-up in oil production. But retail sales remain depressed and show no sign of a turnaround. Our... 27th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Europe’s energy crisis: the impact on Russia & CEE The decision by Gazprom to cut natural gas supplies to Europe to 20% of capacity has caused gas prices to surge and raised the risk of energy shortages during the winter. A full gas cut-off would... 27th July 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine default, Russia return to fiscal normality? Policymakers in Ukraine devalued the hryvnia this week and asked creditors to suspend debt repayments, which will free up funds for the government, but will add to inflation and increase balance sheet... 22nd July 2022 · 7 mins read
Energy Update LNG prices to remain historically high Europe’s heightened demand for LNG will be enough to keep prices high this year and into 2023, particularly as LNG supply growth will be fairly limited. 18th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Energy supply concerns mount, NBP’s wishful thinking Governments across Central Europe ramped up efforts this week to prevent possible shortages of energy during the winter, but there is a growing risk of energy rationing that would push the region's... 15th July 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Jun.) The further decline in Russia’s headline inflation rate to 15.9% y/y in June confirms that inflation has already passed its peak and we expect price pressures to ease further over the coming months... 8th July 2022 · 2 mins read
