Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q3 2022) & Manufacturing PMIs (Oct.) The 0.4% q/q contraction in Czech GDP in Q3 provides the first clear sign that the economy as a whole is buckling. We think the economy is now in a recession which will last until early next year... 1st November 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR’s Nabiullina shows growing inflation concerns Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina’s post-meeting press conference reinforced the message that policymakers are increasingly concerned about pro-inflationary risks, including those... 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Oct. 22) 28th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack External vulnerabilities firmly in the spotlight Current account deficits have widened to alarming levels in Poland, Hungary, Turkey and, most of all, Romania, in recent months which has contributed to the downward pressure on currencies this year –... 26th October 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Region heading for recession Emerging European economies are facing a difficult winter due to the energy crisis as well as headwinds from weakening demand for exports and tightening external financing conditions. We expect almost... 13th October 2022 · 29 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Sep.) Inflation continued to fall in Russia in September, to 13.7% y/y, but at a much slower rate than in previous months. The recent period of strong disinflation is coming to an end and the central bank... 7th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly War developments destabilising Russia, NBP’s final act The macroeconomic fallout from Russia's call-up of military reservists in September and its formal annexation of Ukrainian territory last week has continued to mount, resulting in tighter Western... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) & Turkey CPI (Sep.) Manufacturing PMIs for September were a mixed bag, but continued to paint a weak picture of industrial activity in Turkey, Czechia and Poland in Q3. In contrast, the downturn in Russian industry... 3rd October 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Sep.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for September out of Central and Eastern Europe revealed a further decline and suggest to us that the region as a whole is at the start of a recession. Meanwhile... 29th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Aug.) Russia’s industrial production and retail sales figures for August suggest that the downturn has bottomed out, but activity is only levelling off and a sustained recovery looks some way off. 28th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s mobilisation, external conditions tighten President Putin's "partial mobilisation" of Russian military reservists this week as part of its ongoing war with Ukraine could have important macro implications for Russia's economy through... 23rd September 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation pressures showing signs of easing Inflation now seems to be approaching a peak across the region. Commodity prices have fallen, supply constraints have eased, pipeline price pressures have softened and firms’ selling price... 22nd September 2022 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Sep. 22) 16th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Aug.) & GDP (Q2) Inflation continued to fall sharply in Russia in August, to 14.3% y/y, and there’s little standing in the way of another interest rate cut by the central bank next week. We expect a 50bp reduction to... 9th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly NS1 halted, Russian energy price cap, NBP ends hikes? The indefinite closure of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline by Russia presents clear downside risks to our GDP growth forecasts across Central and Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, the G7 agreement to cap... 9th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) Russia’s industrial production and retail sales figures for July were stronger than expected and provide the first tangible evidence that the downturn in the economy is bottoming out. Join our EM team... 31st August 2022 · 3 mins read
