Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Apr.) The continued growth of Russian industrial production and retail sales in April suggests that the strength of activity seen in Q1 continued at the start of Q2. This momentum is likely to be sustained... 31st May 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Current account positions improve, but risks remain There has been further evidence over the past month that resilient export growth, weak domestic demand and lower energy prices have helped to improve current account positions across Central and... 31st May 2023 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q1 2023) The smaller-than-expected 1.9% y/y contraction in Russian GDP in Q1 suggests that the economy has turned a corner and that growth accelerated in q/q terms at the start of this year. Industry and... 17th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Apr.) Russian inflation continued to defy expectations in April as it slumped to a joint three-year low of 2.3% y/y, which will comfort the central bank. But it is a puzzle as to why inflation pressures... 12th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s election race, CNB hawks, Hungary’s reforms Opinion polls are painting a clearer picture of Turkey's election on 14th May, with an opposition victory looking more likely. This will offer a route to orthodox policymaking, but an Erdogan victory... 5th May 2023 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How feasible is a BRICS currency? Over the weekend, President-elect Donald Trump threatened a 100% import tariff on the BRICS countries unless they pledge not to create their own currency. In this note from 2023, we outlined the... 4th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) Industrial production and retail sales continued to recover strongly in Russia in March and suggest that GDP growth may have accelerated in Q1. The economy appears to be receiving a boost from the... 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q1 2023) & Manufacturing PMIs (Apr.) The 0.1% q/q expansion in Czech GDP in Q1 means that the economy avoided remaining in a technical recession by the skin of its teeth, but we think that growth will still disappoint consensus... 2nd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) 28th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation past the peak, but big challenges lie ahead Inflation has finally turned a corner. Headline inflation rates fell in March in all 14 economies that we cover, the first synchronised drop in more than a decade. This partly reflects base effects... 26th April 2023 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Inflation expectations fall, but reasons for caution Our dataset on inflation expectations across EMs shows some encouraging falls since 2022 and supports our view that, with EM inflation likely to fall further, monetary easing cycles will start in the... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Core inflation remains stubborn, RUB under pressure The raft of March inflation data released across Emerging Europe this week showed that the regional disinflation process is now well underway, but that core price pressures remain incredibly strong... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Consumer Prices (Mar.) Russian inflation fell sharply in March, to 3.5% y/y, as the surge in prices immediately after the war started to fall out of the annual comparison. The 0.4% m/m increase suggests that price pressures... 12th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Military providing only a small boost to Russia’s economy We’re not convinced by the arguments currently doing the rounds that military spending in Russia artificially boosted GDP in a significant way last year. While military spending has increased further... 12th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Weak CEE activity data, Romania’s FX reserves surge The batch of hard activity data and surveys released across Central Europe this week were relatively weak and suggest that GDP contracted in most countries again in Q1. Downside risks to Q2 have also... 6th April 2023 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs and Turkey CPI (Mar.) Manufacturing PMIs for March were weak in Czechia and Poland and suggest that industry remained in recessionary territory in Q1. But there were some bright spots, including the marked improvement in... 3rd April 2023 · 3 mins read
