Emerging Europe Economics Update Don’t get carried away by talk of rate cuts At first glance, it looks like the tide is turning towards looser monetary policy in Emerging Europe. But while there may be one or two rate cuts over the coming month, we wouldn’t get carried away... 16th July 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What would euro break-up mean for Emerging Europe? The economic and financial effects of a limited break-up of the euro-zone could knock some 2-3% off the level of Emerging Europe’s GDP by the end of 2013. But a bigger, more disorderly, break-up would... 27th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Growth outlook worsens This month’s data brought further evidence – if any were needed – that the euro-crisis is casting a long cloud over Emerging Europe. Business surveys have deteriorated further, suggesting that growth... 26th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bail-out talks are the next key hurdle for Greece The formation of a coalition Government headed by New Democracy has reduced the chances of Greece exiting the euro-zone imminently. But the political situation remains precarious and the Government’s... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The PMI puzzle Manufacturing PMIs in Central Europe have weakened significantly over the past couple of months as the economic outlook has darkened. The one crumb of comfort, however, is that they have not fallen as... 19th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Euro-crisis takes centre stage The crisis in the euro-zone continues to cast a long shadow over the outlook for Emerging Europe. Most countries are already feeling the effects of weaker export demand, and the very open economies in... 12th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP data show fragility of domestic demand Final Q1 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe show that the slowdown across the region was driven by weaker domestic demand, with the exception of Slovakia. Meanwhile, exports proved... 8th June 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What can policymakers do to limit financial contagion? There are several ways that, in theory, policymakers in Emerging Europe could limit any financial contagion arising from a disorderly break-up of the euro. But in practice, we suspect that building... 31st May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Caught in the crossfire Emerging Europe’s financial markets have been battered over the past month amid growing fears of a disorderly Greek exit from the euro-zone. Equities are down by around 10% in most of the region... 24th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Policymakers have little room for manoeuvre This week’s dismal first quarter GDP data will sharpen the debate over whether policymakers in Emerging Europe should pursue austerity or focus on growth. But in reality, while there is scope for one... 17th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Greek exit risks revisited With a few notable exceptions, Emerging Europe’s direct exposure to Greece is small. But the contagion from a disorderly Greek exit from the euro-zone would have disastrous consequences for the region... 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP data just the tip of the iceberg The raft of Q1 GDP data released today show that output in large parts of Emerging Europe was contracting even before the most recent escalation of the euro-crisis. 15th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP data should impress – but can it last? The raft of Q1 GDP data due to be released over the coming weeks will confirm that, having been on the brink of a crisis towards the end of last year, most economies in Emerging Europe have since... 10th May 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Markets hit by fresh euro concerns Financial markets across Emerging Europe have been hit by fresh concerns about the euro-zone debt crisis in recent weeks. So far at least, the sell-off in the region’s markets has not been as dramatic... 26th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Euro-zone crisis still the big risk for region’s banks Our latest Banking Heat Map paints a mixed picture: in some countries (notably Hungary and the Baltic States) credit continues to shrink, in others (Turkey) a boom in lending over the past year or so... 17th April 2012 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Evaluating Hungary’s Early FX Repayment Scheme The introduction of Hungary’s early FX mortgage repayment scheme last September was one in a chain of events that severely dented market confidence in local policymaking and sent the economy to the... 5th April 2012 · 1 min read
