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This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Sticky wage growth is a lingering concern for the BoE While the further easing in regular private sector pay growth in March suggests that wage pressures faded a bit faster than …
14th May 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Strong GDP data probably won’t prevent BoE rate cuts The 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in Q1 confirmed that the recession ended at the start of this year and suggests the economy has been …
10th May 2024
For more detailed and up-to-date analysis see here . Rapid falls in inflation may prompt BoE to cut rates in June The Bank of England left interest rates at 5.25% today as widely expected, but it gave the impression it’s getting closer to cutting rates. …
9th May 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Further evidence the drag on activity from high interest rates is fading March’s money and credit figures provide further evidence that the drag from high interest rates is …
30th April 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Easing services prices may encourage BoE to cut rates in the coming months Although the unexpected rise in the composite activity PMI in April suggests the economy grew faster at …
23rd April 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Limited scope for tax cuts March’s public finances figures show that public borrowing in 2023/24 came in £6.6bn higher than the OBR predicted only a month ago, casting further …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication . Retail outlook still bright despite sales stalling in March Although retail sales volumes remaining unchanged in March was worse than expected (consensus forecast +0.3% m/m, CE …
19th April 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Upside surprise, but big drop to below 2% still coming in April The smaller-than-expected fall in CPI inflation from 3.4% in February to 3.2% in March (BoE and consensus 3.1%, CE …
17th April 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Weaker labour market points to weaker wage growth The sharp fall in employment and the jump in the unemployment rate in February suggest that wage growth will continue to slow …
16th April 2024
Bernanke puts the boot in, but doesn’t recommend the BoE projects interest rates Our initial impression (our full analysis is here ) of the changes to the Bank of England’s forecasting and communications recommended by Ben Bernanke is that they would go a …
12th April 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Recovery well underway, but inflation will continue to fall The 0.1% m/m rise in GDP in February (consensus and CE +0.1%) and the upward revision to the gain in January from 0.2% …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Drag on activity from high interest rates continues to fade February’s money and credit figures show the dip in mortgage rates at the start of the year boosted mortgage approvals …
2nd April 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Mild recession confirmed, but recovery probably already underway The final Q4 2023 GDP release confirmed that the UK economy was in the mildest of mild technical recessions at …
28th March 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Shoppers largely shrug off wet weather as retail rebound only paused Unchanged retail sales volumes in February (CE forecast 0.0% m/m, consensus -0.4% m/m), as shoppers largely …
22nd March 2024
Slight dovish tilt, and fast fall in inflation will make BoE more dovish before too long The Bank of England sprung no surprises, leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the fifth time in a row and, despite no MPC members no longer voting to raise interest …
21st March 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Further signs of the UK economy having moved out of recession We’ll be discussing the outlook for Fed, ECB and Bank of England policy in a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm GMT …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Disappointing borrowing figures won’t stop the Chancellor unveiling more tax cuts Note: We’ll be discussing the outlook for Fed, ECB and Bank of England policy in a 20-minute …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. UK inflation to fall below 2% in April and the rates in the US and euro-zone We’ll be discussing the outlook for Fed, ECB and Bank of England policy in a 20-minute online …
20th March 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. UK economy has probably already exited recession Note: We will be discussing whether the next government will move the dial on the economy in a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm …
13th March 2024
More marked easing in wage growth is just around the corner We will be discussing whether the next government will move the dial on the economy in a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm GMT on Wednesday 13th March. (Register here .) The easing in wage growth …
12th March 2024
Boost to the economy now comes ahead of a bigger drag after the election The net fiscal giveaway of £13.9bn (0.5% of GDP) in 2024/25 in the Budget may at the margin help lift the economy out of its mild recession before an election later this year. But a …
6th March 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Drag on consumption from higher interest rates fading January’s money and credit figures suggest the drag on consumer spending and the housing market from higher interest rates …
29th February 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Lingering price pressures may continue to concern the BoE The small rise in the composite activity PMI, from 52.9 in January to 53.3 in February (CE forecast 53.0, consensus …
22nd February 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Chancellor won’t have huge amounts of cash to splash We will be discussing what the policies announced in the Budget mean for the economy and the financial markets in a 20-minute …
21st February 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Strong rebound suggests the retail recession will soon be over The 3.4% m/m rebound in retail sales volumes in January suggests the retail recession, and perhaps the economy …
16th February 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. In the mildest of mild recessions, but recovery is in sight The news that the UK slipped into technical recession in 2023, will be a blow for the Prime Minister on a day when he …
15th February 2024
Soft surprise supports our view that inflation will fall below 2.0% in April By staying at 4.0% in January rather than rising as widely expected (BoE 4.1%, CE 4.1%, consensus 4.2%), January’s UK CPI inflation figures are better than expected and do not …
14th February 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Wage growth easing a bit slower While wage growth fell further in December, evidence that the labour market may not be loosening much suggests wage growth may not fall as fast as …
13th February 2024
Cuts may come earlier than the BoE implies While leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the fourth meeting in a row today, the Bank of England sent some soft signals that the next move will be a cut, but it pushed back more strongly against the idea that …
1st February 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. A turning point in credit December’s money and credit figures suggest the transition from interest rates being a drag on activity to being a boost is beginning. This lends some …
30th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Lingering evidence of sticky services inflation may continue to concern the BoE The small rise in the composite activity PMI, from 52.1 in December to 52.5 in January, suggests …
24th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. More wiggle room for a pre-election splash December’s better-than-expected public finances figures brought some cheer for the Chancellor after the recent run of poor outturns and …
23rd January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Bleak end to a dismal year, but a better 2024 awaits The 3.2% m/m fall in retail sales volumes in December was far worse than expected (consensus forecast -0.5% m/m, CE -1.0% …
19th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Downward trend stalls, but drop to below 2% still coming in April The unexpected rise in CPI inflation from 3.9% in November to 4.0% in December (consensus and CE forecast 3.8%) …
17th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Wage growth fading fairly fast Another big drop in wage growth in November supports our view that domestic inflationary pressures are fading fairly fast. But the ongoing …
16th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Stagnation in Q4, but recovery in sight The 0.3% m/m rebound in real GDP in November (consensus and CE forecast 0.2%) increases the chances that the economy escaped a recession …
12th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Lower mortgage rates will ease the squeeze, but still some pain to come November’s money and credit data suggest that the recent falls in mortgage rates will stimulate new …
4th January 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Dose of festive cheer for retailers, but unlikely to last into new year The 1.3% m/m rebound in retail sales volumes in November may have paused the recent retail woes as Black …
22nd December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Mildest of mild recessions may have begun in Q3 The final Q3 2023 GDP data release shows that the mildest of mild recessions may have started in Q3. But whether or not there is a …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Still scope for pre-election splash in Spring Budget We doubt November’s public finances figures will prevent the Chancellor from unveiling a further pre-election fiscal splash …
21st December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Collapsing domestic inflationary pressures may mean BoE cuts rates earlier For the second month in a row, the falls in CPI inflation from 4.6% in October to 3.9% in November …
20th December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Resilient activity to encourage BoE to double down on high for longer The rise in the flash composite activity PMI, from 50.7 in November to 51.7 in December, increased the …
15th December 2023
Few signs Bank of England is starting to contemplate rate cuts The Bank of England sprung no surprises, leaving interest rates at 5.25% for the third time in a row and pushing back against the prospect of near-term interest rate cuts. While the recent …
14th December 2023
Contraction in October sets scene for stagnation in 2024 Note: We’ll be discussing the Fed, ECB and Bank of England December decisions and the policy outlook for 2024 in an online briefing on Thursday, 14 th December . Click here to register for the …
13th December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Sharp fall in wage growth will further fuel market rate cut expectations The sharp fall in wage growth in October will probably further fuel investors’ expectations that interest …
12th December 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Higher interest rates will continue to percolate through the economy October’s money and credit data suggest that higher interest rates are continuing to percolate through the …
29th November 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Something for everyone, but bigger point is labour supply is too low The net migration figures for the year to June 2023 give some ammunition to both sides of the political …
23rd November 2023
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Sticky price pressures will add to the Bank of England’s unease The rise in the flash composite activity PMI, from 48.7 in October to 50.1 in November, is still consistent with a …
For more detailed analysis of the Autumn Statement, see our UK Economics Focus here . Chancellor chips away at fiscal tightening ahead of an election The net new giveaway the Chancellor announced today of £14.3bn in 2024/25 (0.5% of GDP) is a bit bigger …
22nd November 2023
Note: We’ll be discussing the UK macro and market consequences of the Chancellor’s Autumn statement at 10:00 EST/15:00 GMT on 22nd November. Register here for this 20-minute online briefing. This page has been updated with additional analysis since first …
21st November 2023
