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Whilst export values of the “New Three” fell for the sixth consecutive month in y/y terms in April, export volumes remained close to their record peak. Meanwhile, the sharp drop-off in China’s exports of solar panels to India following the re-tightening …
20th May 2024
We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. (See a recording here .) This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of the tariffs and what they say …
15th May 2024
The impact of the US tariffs announced today will barely register on the paltry flows of solar panels and electric vehicles that China directly exports to the US. However, the new tariffs could have a bigger impact on imports of Chinese-made batteries, …
14th May 2024
Extreme heat across parts of India could be particularly damaging to the agriculture sector through both a drop in crop yields and a fall in labour productivity. But industry and services aren’t immune; a surge in demand for electricity to power cooling …
9th May 2024
The sharp rise in the price of carbon under China’s Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) this year, to a record high, underlines that Beijing sees carbon pricing as a key part of its emissions-reduction toolkit. Although the price of polluting in China is likely …
7th May 2024
The rapid expansion in China’s manufacturing capacity of green technology is a symptom of the country’s investment-led growth model and so there is no reason to believe that any change in tack is imminent. Against this backdrop, western governments will …
23rd April 2024
Despite another large y/y fall in green technology export values from China in March, falling solar panel and battery prices mean that China’s export volumes of the so-called “New Three” were close to the peak recorded in September 2023. After the 12.8% …
22nd April 2024
El Ni ño is causing severe drought across much of southern Africa, which is likely to weigh on GDP, push up inflation and strain balance sheets. South Africa has also suffered water shortages, albeit more as a result of creaking infrastructure than low …
4th April 2024
While the number of “green” jobs in the UK rose strongly in 2022, it’s worth noting that green workers were still outnumbered by estate agents! Market forces are facilitating the transition to a greener workforce, but policies to make the labour market …
2nd April 2024
The latest monthly trade data from China highlight how the huge expansion in local manufacturing capacity is pushing down green technology prices and will only add to western concerns about trade “dumping”. Although shipments to developed markets in the …
20th March 2024
“New Three” Chinese exports = must-watch data …
14th March 2024
Recent comments by one of the six members of the ECB’s Executive Board have reignited debate over the appropriate role for central banks in tackling climate change. Against this backdrop, we are re-publishing analysis that was originally released in early …
29th February 2024
The latest crane survey reported the highest volume of London office starts on record. In part that reflects a refurbishment boom as developers retrofit their buildings to meet MEES standards and benefit from the green premium. New development is also …
28th February 2024
Carbon price not out of the woods yet …
22nd February 2024
To mark the addition of Canada to our Regional Climate Databank , this Update takes a closer look at the sub-national climate-related data in the country. Our Global Climate Databank and Green Transition Scores are the places to go to compare climate …
5th February 2024
The downward trend in the EU carbon price since early 2023 has been driven by lower demand for pollution permits on the back of industrial weakness and growth in cleaner energy sources. With energy-intensive activity in the bloc set to stay weak, and …
17th January 2024
Given the thick smog covering parts of South Asia this winter, forcing schools to shut down and disrupting activity, this Update takes a closer look into the economics of air pollution. Air pollution is mostly caused by the burning of fuels and biomass, …
8th January 2024
The high profile announcements from COP28 around renewable capacity pledges and fossil fuel usage are ambitious, but strike us as either overly optimistic or vague. While we think renewable energy consumption will increase markedly, fossil fuel usage is …
21st December 2023
As 2023 draws to a close, this Update looks at three key climate themes to watch in 2024. In short, one should look beyond the inevitable climate-related rhetoric in the run-up to looming elections and focus on what the data tell us – particularly as …
20th December 2023
The target from COP28 to triple global renewable generating capacity this decade is encouragingly ambitious. But as our Climate Reporting Tools show, the goal will be easier to achieve in some countries than others, and attention will also be needed on …
14th December 2023
The extension of climate-related financing by the IMF to vulnerable emerging market economies (EMs) demonstrates how the Fund is factoring in macroeconomic and financial stability risks stemming from climate change to its policy work. While these packages …
11th December 2023
Brazil’s first sovereign ESG bond arrived last month amid much fanfare, but the reality is that any “ESG premium” looked fairly limited to us. And we think ESG bond premia, in general, will likely remain low. Brazil’s government issued its 7-year US …
4th December 2023
In this Global Economics Update , we describe eight of the biggest risks to our economic forecasts for 2024. The unusual nature of this cycle and uncertainties surrounding the transmission of monetary policy mean that the biggest risks relate to central …
30th November 2023
With COP-season upon us once again, this Update offers a brief guide to this year’s spectacle. In short, with the incentives for countries to act in their self-interests as strong as ever, the prospect of an effective global agreement to tackle the …
29th November 2023
Key insights from our new CE Climate Reporting Tools …
21st November 2023
The underperformance of wind and solar equities since early 2021 has largely been driven by higher interest rates, which disproportionately affect the cost of renewables projects. But while the days of ultra-low financing costs are behind us, our …
2nd November 2023
Anticipation of legislation requiring minimum standards of energy efficiency is already impacting CRE values as investors price in transition risk and this pressure is likely to ramp up in the coming years as compliance deadlines harden. This note …
19th October 2023
All else equal, our view that the AI revolution will lead to faster productivity growth in the late-2020s and early 2030s implies that greenhouse gas emissions will be higher during this period than we previously expected. That said, the net impact of AI …
16th October 2023
Cobalt is likely to keep its position as a leading battery metal for years to come, but its high cost compared to alternative metals means that cobalt demand won’t grow as fast as overall battery production. This is a key reason why we think that the …
13th October 2023
Becoming liable for the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) would nullify any cost-reduction benefit from a lower carbon price for UK companies that trade closely with the EU. That said, the CBAM would have less impact on domestically-focused …
6th October 2023
The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous financial crises that have been caused by sharp moves in …
4th October 2023
Investment in the green transition is unlikely to rise quickly enough this decade to help achieve net zero by 2050. But a greater focus on areas including renewables and electric vehicles will still probably push up investment’s share of global GDP by …
25th September 2023
The news that UK Prime Minster Sunak is set to further dilute the government’s climate policies demonstrates that when the political going gets tough, climate policies are the first to fall by the wayside. From a macro perspective, the biggest risk is …
20th September 2023
Supplies of freshwater are likely to become scarcer over time as the world heats up and precipitation patterns change. While investment into infrastructure and boosting desalination capacity can help to increase supplies, the costs borne by consumers and …
18th September 2023
The UK government’s failure to award any new offshore wind-power contracts in its latest procurement round ultimately stems from bean-counting stinginess and is nothing that a lot of extra government investment won’t fix. But with the days of ever-cheaper …
8th September 2023
The UK government’s decision to block Marks and Spencer’s (M&S’) re-development of its flagship store highlights the challenges in the transition to net zero. In particular, while authorities are using regulation to force owners into greener choices, if …
7th September 2023
The relaxing of planning rules governing new onshore wind installations in England marks a shift away from the de facto ban that was put in place in 2015. But raising the bar for objections to land-based turbines won’t put an end to green-related …
6th September 2023
Somewhat paradoxically, climate-driven shifts in tourist patterns could help to smooth the seasonal peaks seen in summer destinations, and some countries – particularly in northern Europe – will become more attractive places to visit. However, there is a …
22nd August 2023
Given the dominance of coal in China’s energy mix, a medium-sized electric vehicle (EV) produced there currently starts life with a “carbon debt” almost twice that of an equivalent internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle. However, the greater efficiency …
15th August 2023
Surveys show that most people in the UK want action to tackle climate change but many do not have the appetite to pay for it. And given that the fiscal firepower and political will to grease the wheels of the green transition are both in short supply, …
14th August 2023
Climate change is expected to intensify the scale and frequency of flooding over the coming years. Housing markets in the US have yet to fully price in these risks, leaving many properties significantly overvalued. But as these risks begin to manifest, …
31st July 2023
Achieving the shipping industry’s new decarbonisation ambitions would inevitably make the cost of sea freight more expensive. However, it would probably have a negligible impact on consumer prices. As expected, the high-level meeting at the International …
11th July 2023
We recently held a Drop-in titled “Industry’s decarbonisation challenge – From aviation to property”, which you can view on-demand here . This Update addresses some of the questions we received during the event, including those that we did not have time …
3rd July 2023
Florida and other parts of the Sunbelt (notably major cities in Texas) will likely face the most severe physical climate risk over the next 30 years. While this is unlikely to come as a major surprise, we don’t believe that this risk is being consistently …
14th June 2023
Preventing large-scale leaks of methane from Turkmenistan’s creaking infrastructure would be a welcome sign of emissions-cutting efforts broadening out from carbon dioxide to include other harmful greenhouse gases too. But while Turkmenistan has become …
8th June 2023
The aviation sector is pinning its hopes on sustainable aviation fuel to help cut its carbon footprint over the coming decades. But any ramp-up in biofuel usage would pit aviation against the needs of other sectors and industry officials are becoming more …
25th May 2023
The physical risks facing commercial property are substantial with extreme weather events like floods and wildfires set to increase in both the US and Europe over the coming decades. Property markets have yet to fully price these in, especially in areas …
21st April 2023
The shipping industry is notable as being both a vital artery of world trade and one of the trickiest sectors to de-carbonise. This Update looks at five key questions on the near-term plans to reduce emissions from the sector and the potential …
13th April 2023
The “ Powering up Britain ” plan presented by the UK government this week highlights the benefits and limitations of official involvement in reducing emissions. On the one hand, the plans to reduce the price of electricity relative to gas will help to …
31st March 2023
The EU’s Net-Zero Industry Act announced last week aims to keep the manufacture of clean technologies within the EU and shows that global fracturing will take place within blocs as well as between blocs over the coming years. But the bigger picture is …
24th March 2023
