Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Markets Use setting UK Markets
The recession that looks likely does not have to be accompanied by falling employment - firms could just let productivity (i.e. output per worker) suffer instead. Indeed, employers have been reluctant to cut headcounts so far. But if previous slowdowns …
6th August 2008
The Government’s decision to inject extra capital into Northern Rock means that UK taxpayers will become shareholders in a troubled mortgage lender during what looks set to be the severest downturn in the housing market for decades. … Northern Rock …
5th August 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/Markit Report on Services (Jul.)& Ind. Production (Jun.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Household sector plumbs record lows …
4th August 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Jul.) …
1st August 2008
The slowdown in GDP growth to just 0.2% q/q in Q2 has come even before the full effects of the housing market downturn and the credit squeeze have been felt. As such, the UK appears to be heading towards recession. Indeed, the latest business surveys …
31st July 2008
Inflationary pressures continue to prevent the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) from cutting interest rates in response to the deteriorating real economy. In fact, if interest rates change this month, they are more likely to go up than down. However, given …
The news that British Gas today became the second utility supplier to raise its prices means that inflation is likely to rise further and faster than we previously expected. But the silver lining is that the peak in inflation may be marginally closer than …
30th July 2008
Recent financial market developments have pushed corporate pension funds back into deficit, further constraining the resources available for firms to invest. … Re-emergence of pension fund deficits threatens …
The further sharp contraction in the amount of cash held on deposit by companies in June is yet another sign that the economic downturn is taking its toll on the corporate sector, suggesting that it won’t be long before companies start to pare back their …
29th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Household Borrowing (Jun.) & CBI Distr. Trades (Jul.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fall in oil brings light at the end of the inflation tunnel …
28th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Provisional GDP (Q2) …
25th July 2008
Abstracting from the extreme volatility of the monthly data, the official retail sales figures appear to have been on a downward trend over the past few months. And there have been more concrete signs over the past month of slower non-retail spending too, …
24th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales (June) …
23rd July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC Minutes (Jul.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CBI Quarterly Industrial Trends Survey (Jul.) …
22nd July 2008
It might only be a few months before the MPC can conclude that the twin threats of rising wages growth and rising core inflation are not going to materialise. We still think there is a decent chance that the MPC will be able to support the faltering …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Tide turning back towards lower rates …
21st July 2008
The Government’s decision to “reform” its fiscal rules will help it to avoid deepening the economic downturn by raising taxes over the next year or two. But it does not alter the fact that a major fiscal consolidation will eventually be required in order …
18th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Public Finances & M4 Money Supply (Jun.) …
17th July 2008
The recent problems of the US government sponsored enterprises, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have contributed to an apparent shift in the markets’ attention away from the upward pressure on inflation and towards the increasingly bleak outlook for activity. …
Although unemployment is now rising, there is perhaps some comfort in the fact that the sharp rise in unemployment in the early 1990s had a fairly limited impact on real household income growth. However, household incomes are unlikely to get off so …
The markets have once again started to anticipate cuts in UK interest rates. But if our expectations of the severity of the downturn in the economy prove even half right, rate expectations have a lot further to fall. … Interest rate expectations have much …
16th July 2008
The fall in employment that we expect over the next couple of years is only a fraction of the drop seen in the early 1990s. But with the workforce unlikely to contract as it did back then, the rises in unemployment now and in the early 1990s could be …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Labour Market Data (May/Jun.) …
15th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … RICS Housing Market Survey (June) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices (Jun.) …
14th July 2008
The ONS measure of core CPI inflation does not exclude all elements of food and energy prices in th CPI and is therefore likely to rise alongside energy and food prices. There is a danger, then, that the MPC is misled by any rise in “core” inflation and …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Housing adjustment gathering speed …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Producer Prices (Jun.) …
13th July 2008
Industrial action by the likes of Shell and local government workers has fuelled fears of a return to the mass strikes and soaring pay of the 1970s. However, the labour market looks fundamentally different now, with trade union membership now only …
10th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Halifax House Price Index (June) …
The MPC’s inaction today in the face of a torrent of dreadful news on the economy underlines the extent to which its hands are tied by the current strength of inflation pressures. There is little it can do to prevent the economy from sliding towards …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Trade & BoE Quoted Interest Rates (May/Jun.) …
8th July 2008
The steep falls in equity prices seen over recent weeks have brought the UK stockmarket back into line with consensus expectations for the economy. But with those expectations very likely to weaken further over the coming months, equities’ adjustment may …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK BCC Economic Survey (Q2) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Recession moves closer …
7th July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Industrial Production (May) …
6th July 2008
An interest rate cut is desperately needed to support the rapidly deteriorating economy. But inflationary pressures continue to tie the Monetary Policy Committee’s hands. The chances of an interest rate rise have receded significantly. But with a rate cut …
3rd July 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/RBS Services (Jun.) & Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) …
