Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Mr Brown’s accumulator not a good bet for the economy …
22nd May 2004
The Monetary Policy Committee’s prediction of a very solid 3.5% expansion in GDP this year is based on the assumption that the official output data will soon reflect the buoyancy of the business surveys. But in the case of the manufacturing sector, we …
18th May 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Higher interest rates pose dangers further out …
17th May 2004
The recent rise in global oil prices to close to $40pb appears to provide support for the MPC’s concerns that rising commodity prices pose a serious threat to the outlook for UK inflation. But while much depends on whether oil prices rise any further and …
11th May 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Come on, admit it! …
10th May 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Interest rate forecast revision – rates to rise to 4.75% this year …
6th May 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The MPC is targeting house prices – whether it admits it or not …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Slower growth and weak inflation cloud rate outlook …
5th May 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A rate hike would smell of fudge …
4th May 2004
Conventional wisdom has it that mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW), which rose to a record high in the fourth quarter of last year, has provided a strong boost to household spending and will continue to do so. However, we believe that the links between MEW …
26th April 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The MPC must now decide – inflation or house prices …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A model for slower rate hikes? …
22nd April 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling threatens to put the MPC in a spin …
19th April 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling saves the gradualist approach …
13th April 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates to rise in May, but not by much more thereafter …
8th April 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates up on Thursday, but they may not go much higher …
5th April 2004
Despite widespread expectations that the growth of household spending would slow under the weight of record levels of household debt, there has been little evidence that the spending boom is coming to an end. … Shop or drop? (Q2 …
30th March 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Debt vs. the pound – the interest rate debate …
29th March 2004
Dull though this Budget was, the big surprise was that the Chancellor chose not to raise money but rather to give it away. Admittedly, the amounts are tiny – some £700m, making a net giveaway since the last budget of just under £2bn. But the fact that …
17th March 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling’s rise is not being felt...yet …
15th March 2004
Gordon Brown presents his 8th Budget next Wednesday against a significantly stronger economic backdrop than that of a year ago. Thanks to the recovery in the global economy and some favourable revisions to past data, Mr Brown’s forecast of 3.0% to 3.5% …
9th March 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rebalancing under threat …
8th March 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More rate rises coming, but only to 4.5% …
4th March 2004
The only tool which is currently available to dampen the record levels of household borrowing is the interest rate. But the Monetary Policy Committee has made it clear that its remit is to target inflation and not asset prices nor households’ borrowing. …
3rd March 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Mr Brown’s numbers come up …
1st March 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Too early to panic about retail margins …
23rd February 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The MPC banks on economic utopia …
15th February 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The MPC streaks ahead …
9th February 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates rise as expected – where now depends on housing …
5th February 2004
Wages growth has remained remarkably subdued in recent months, with last month’s data showing annual average earnings growth of just 3.2%. But with the labour market data also showing employment picking up strongly, the inevitable concern is that the …
3rd February 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates up this week, but still on course to peak at 4.25% …
2nd February 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Growth figures ease MPC’s dilemma… for now …
26th January 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … New Year, same imbalances …
12th January 2004
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates held, but probably going up in February …
8th January 2004
The pound has been caught in the middle of a major realignment between the US dollar and the euro, which we believe could have significantly further to go. … The pound at a critical juncture (Q1 …
30th December 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fall in inflation heightens MPC dilemma …
22nd December 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Whoops, there goes another £10bn …
15th December 2003
After flitting in and out of recession for the last five years, the manufacturing sector has seen signs in recent months that conditions are finally improving. In particular, the CIPS Report on Manufacturing is consistent with an acceleration in the …
11th December 2003
As usual, the Pre-Budget Report contained little in the way of major fiscal measures. Of more interest were the new economic and fiscal forecasts, which revealed much higher public borrowing than was expected in the Budget. The forecast for public sector …
10th December 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … It’s all going to plan...almost …
8th December 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Interest rates will be raised “cautiously” to 4.25% …
4th December 2003
Gordon Brown will present his seventh Pre-Budget Report (PBR) on December 10th against a now familiar background of rapidly escalating public borrowing. We expect him to push his forecast for Public Sector Net Borrowing in the current year up by around …
3rd December 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rate rise is final straw for consumer confidence …
1st December 2003
Household debt continues to rise at worryingly rapid rates, having already reached record highs relative to households’ income. Admittedly, debt servicing costs are historically low, with interest payments on household debt equalling just 7.2% of …
26th November 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Falling services inflation to help limit rate hikes …
24th November 2003
With the threat of falling house prices around the corner, the question inevitably arises of whether we are about to see a return of the widespread negative equity of the 1990s, when thousands of households saw the value of their houses fall below that of …
20th November 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC’s growth optimism justifies rate rises...for now …
17th November 2003
The growth of average earnings is likely to pick up over the next two years. We see it accelerating from an average of 3.4% this year to 4% in 2004 and 4.5% in 2005 due to a number of special factors. … Average earnings growth to …
11th November 2003
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the MPC hiding behind sterling? …
10th November 2003
Predictions from some forecasters that interest rates are set to rise to 5% or above in the current cycle are based at least in part on the assumption that the Monetary Policy Committee will want to raise interest rates back up to a “neutral” level from …
9th November 2003
