Filtered by Subscriptions: UK Economics Use setting UK Economics
The dilemma facing the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has not got any easier to resolve. Inflation expectations have risen further and yet borrowers have started to suffer even more at the hands of the credit crunch. We think that the renewed problems in …
3rd April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/RBS Services (Mar.) & Credit Conditions Survey (Q1) …
2nd April 2008
The last month has brought more evidence that the credit crunch is taking its toll on the real economy. Mortgage lenders have begun to raise their rates for existing customers as well as new customers. And some lenders have halted new mortgage lending …
The UK’s current account deficit has reached unsustainable levels. And any correction is likely to be very painful for the wider economy, incorporating a prolonged period of very weak domestic growth. We think that the UK economy will grow by just 1% next …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Household Borrowing (Feb.) & Equity Withdrawal (Q4) …
No, it’s not an April fool’s joke. With the UK economy facing very similar economic imbalances to those unwinding with such devastating effect in the US, we now expect GDP growth to average just 1% in 2009 and interest rates to fall to their 2003 low of …
1st April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CIPS/RBS Report on Manufacturing (Mar.) …
31st March 2008
Inflation expectations may not be quite as important an influence on actual inflation as the Monetary Policy Committee appears to believe. Accordingly, there is a danger that the Committee keeps interest rates unnecessarily high while it waits for …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Index of Services (Jan.) & Productivity (Q4) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Consumer spending on the brink? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q4) …
28th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nationwide house prices (March) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CBI Distributive Trades & Business Investment (Mar./Q4) …
27th March 2008
The threat of having to write a letter to the Chancellor explaining why inflation has moved more than 1% above its target could cause the MPC to focus on the near-term outlook for inflation just when the threats facing the real economy suggest it needs to …
26th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Cracks appearing in the labour market …
24th March 2008
The strength of the official measure of high street spending is hard to square with the weakness of consumer confidence, household income growth and the housing market. It may be that the official figures are revised in the coming months. Or it may be …
20th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Retail Sales (Feb.) …
The parallels between UK and US consumers are disturbing, with the UK consumer sector having seen just as big a build-up of imbalances as that in the US. The UK could therefore soon find itself following in the US’s footsteps with a sharp housing-induced …
19th March 2008
Today’s gloomy comments from clothing retailer Next about trading conditions over the coming year echo our view that clothing is unlikely to escape as lightly during this slowdown as it did in 2005. … Clothing sales to suffer more heavily this …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … MPC Minutes, Labour Data & CBI Survey …
Sterling’s relative weakness during the latest bout of market volatility is a telling indication of the growing concerns about the health of the UK economy. But the falling pound could itself damage the outlook for the economy by further hampering the …
18th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Consumer Prices (Feb.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gambling on growth …
17th March 2008
US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson spoke at length yesterday of the serious ongoing problems in the US housing, mortgage and credit markets and the drastic measures which are likely to be required for those markets eventually to return to some form of …
14th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK BoE Inflation Attitudes (Feb.) …
13th March 2008
This Budget was conspicuously short of major tax and spending measures. The main interest was therefore in the change to the Treasury’s economic forecasts and the associated projections for government borrowing. … UK Budget 2008 - Hoping for the …
12th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Trade (Jan.) …
This checklist is intended to help clients keep track of the important measures and numbers announced during the Chancellor’s Budget speech at 12.30pm and to provide some instant context. … Budget …
The Bank of England’s announcement that it will inject more liquidity into the money markets is a welcome development that should help to bring interbank interest rates down to more normal levels. But high interbank rates have already had a knock-on …
11th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor & Quoted Interest Rates (Feb.) …
Recent news on the US economy, most notably February’s sharp drop in non-farm payrolls, has left us even more pessimistic over the outlook for the US. We now forecast GDP growth of just 0.5% in 2008 (previously 1.3%), with a recession in the first half. …
10th March 2008
The popularity of mortgages with loan to value ratios (LTVS) of over 100% appears to have been a strong support to household goods sales over the past year or so. The decline in these products is therefore set to exacerbate the squeeze from a weaker …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Producer Prices & Industrial Production (Feb/Jan) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Services sector holding up …
