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The decision by the Swedish Riksbank to slash interest rates by 175 basis points highlights the degree to which the economic outlook has deteriorated. With the downturn set to worsen next year, further interest rate cuts seem likely. … Swedish interest …
4th December 2008
Recent data suggest that the euro-zone economic downturn is gathering pace. Not only do the latest business surveys point to further steep falls in industrial output, but they also indicate that service sector output could soon begin to decline on an …
3rd December 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Retail Sales (Oct.) & Final Composite PMI (Nov.) …
The recent surge in the spread between peripheral euro-zone government bond yields and the equivalent German yield is to a large part down to rising risk aversion in the financial markets. But the relatively healthy outlook for the German economy and …
2nd December 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Producer Prices (Oct.) & Spain Unemp. (Nov.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Near-term outlook deteriorates further …
1st December 2008
The Italian Government’s announcement of an economic package to help reinvigorate the economy suggests that Prime Minister Berlusconi may have reverted to his free spending ways. But the package looks set to provide a far smaller stimulus to the economy …
28th November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Flash CPI (Nov.) & Unemployment (Oct.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Swedish GDP (Q3) …
The latest Spanish fiscal package shows that the Government is willing to pull out all the stops to prevent a steep economic contraction. But with the effects on the economy of the housing market downturn and slowing external demand some way from their …
27th November 2008
While governments across the developed world are stepping in to shore up their ailing economies, the fiscal boost in the euro-zone looks set to be fairly modest. With a gradual economic recovery likely to start sooner than in the US or the UK, the …
While the latest comments from the ECB suggest that it is not prepared to slash interest rates quite as aggressively as some other central banks, at least another 50bp reduction this month seems like a near certainty. A worryingly sharp drop in business …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone EC Survey (Nov.) & M3 Money Supply (Oct.) …
The European Commission’s call for a fiscal stimulus of 1.5% of GDP makes little difference to the economic outlook. Indeed, some European governments will argue that they have already done enough. Nonetheless, the economic downturn looks set to put a …
26th November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German CPI (1st Est. Nov.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Norwegian GDP (Q3) …
25th November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German GDP (Q3) & Consumer Confidence (Dec.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Ifo Survey (Nov.) …
24th November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What threat of deflation in the euro-zone? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) …
21st November 2008
The joke about the differences between Iceland and Ireland (one letter and about six months) might provide some encouragement to the latter in the light of recent signs that Iceland is turning the corner. But the economy still faces major challenges. … …
20th November 2008
Iceland’s $4.6bn IMF-led rescue package will provide the economy with much-needed funds to help cover its external financing requirement. But it will not be enough to prevent a severe and prolonged economic slump. … Iceland: Outlook bleak, despite IMF …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Spanish GDP (Q3) …
19th November 2008
Recent data on the Italian external sector has painted a worrying picture of the outlook for exporters. With the domestic economy in no position to pick up the slack, we think that the consensus view that Italy will stagnate next year looks far too …
18th November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How deep will the euro-zone recession be? …
17th November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone GDP (Q3) & Final CPI (Oct.) …
14th November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Preliminary GDP (Q3) …
13th November 2008
The latest information on pay negotiations in Germany supports our view that any pick-up in wages growth in the coming months will be modest and short-lived. While this is bad news for German consumers in the near term, at least it should encourage the …
12th November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Industrial Production (Sep.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German ZEW Survey (Nov.) …
11th November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … France & Italy Industrial Production (Sep.) …
10th November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the ECB being too timid? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Ind. Prod'n (Sep.) & ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q4) …
7th November 2008
Following today’s decision to cut interest rates by 50bp to 3.25%, President Trichet’s comments confirmed that the ECB is not about to slash rates as aggressively as the Bank of England. Nonetheless, with the ECB’s earlier inflation worries paling into …
6th November 2008
Despite today’s downward revisions, the French Government’s projections for GDP growth and the public finances still look much too optimistic. The fact that the Government seems prepared to allow public borrowing to rise markedly as the economy weakens is …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) & Final Composite PMI (Oct.) …
5th November 2008
The euro-zone economic outlook has gone from bad to worse. The sharpest ever drop in the previously reliable EC Economic Sentiment Indicator in October left it pointing to annual falls in GDP of around 0.5%. Activity might not plunge as rapidly as this …
4th November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Producer Prices (Sep.) & Spain Unemp. (Oct.) …
The latest data from the industrial sector provide the clearest signs yet that the global economic slowdown, coupled with Italy’s fundamental lack of competitiveness, is taking a heavy toll on the Italian economy. … Italian recession to be worse than the …
3rd November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Weaker euro won’t stop economy contracting …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Flash CPI (Oct.) & Unemployment (Sep.) …
31st October 2008
The outlook for the European economy has continued to deteriorate as the global financial crisis has intensified and the international environment has worsened. At the same time, domestic housing markets have weakened and business confidence has slumped. …
30th October 2008
Severe strains in financial markets and a rapid deterioration in economic conditions have finally prompted a turnaround in the ECB’s previously hawkish stance. This supports our long-held view that interest rates will fall further than markets have been …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone EC Survey (Oct.) …
The Norges Bank today cut interest rates for the second time this month and signalled that further cuts are to come. But we continue to expect stronger economic fundamentals to ensure that rates fall less sharply than in most other developed economies …
29th October 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German CPI (1st Est. Oct.) …
To date, only a few major economies have been afflicted by large scale falls in house prices. But all that will change in 2009. Housing is significantly overvalued across much of Europe, as well as in Australia and Canada. Our analysis suggests that there …
The Norges Bank today cut interest rates for the second time this month and signalled that furthercuts are to come. But we continue to expect stronger economic fundamentals to ensure that rates fallless sharply than in most other developed economies next …
The franc’s latest appreciation to a record high against the euro appears to reflect the weakness of the euro-zone economy more than Swiss domestic factors. But the franc’s strength is yet another reason to expect the Swiss economy to weaken significantly …
28th October 2008
