We expect the RBNZ to leave rates on hold for a seventh consecutive time at its meeting next Wednesday. To be sure, the Bank will probably strike a hawkish tone out of an abundance of caution. However, with the economy in tatters and inflation on its way …
3rd July 2024
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Uptick in retail sales not a gamechanger for the RBA The upside surprise in the May retail sales numbers primarily reflected consumers taking advantage of end-of-financial year …
The rebound in residential investment over the past year will go into reverse in Q2, as housing starts and home sales slump again. We expect this weakness to persist thanks to a coming slump in new multi-family construction, which will soon gradually feed …
2nd July 2024
Despite the continued depreciation of the yen so far this year, we still expect it to rebound against the greenback supported by its relatively low valuation and the start of the easing cycle in the US. Although the yen has remained stable today against …
Despite the modest rise in job openings in May, the big picture remains that labour market conditions continue to slowly normalise, and the low quits rate still points to a sharp slowdown in wage growth. After the sharp fall in April, the marginal rise in …
Across the 17 metros we cover, most will see higher vacancy over the next year or so due to a surge in completions. Atlanta and Houston will be the key exceptions. There new construction has plummeted in response to falling apartment values and higher …
The consensus is still downbeat on the outlook for retail rents, with growth expected to underperform even the struggling office sector. But with a decent consumer recovery on the horizon we think that pessimism is misplaced. As inflation falls back and …
The recently-published fiscal plans of Colombia’s government seem to have alleviated some near-term fiscal concerns, but we think the medium-term budget and debt projections are based on rosy assumptions around growth and oil prices. Policymakers’ (and …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Continued strength of services inflation all but rules out July ECB cut It already seemed unlikely that the ECB would cut interest rates at its meeting in July, and June’s …
Concerns about the economy will keep RBA from hiking The minutes of the RBA’s June meeting revealed that the Bank’s tightening bias remains intact. The Board noted that there were a number of factors that supported the case for a rate hike last month. …
We continue to expect equities to outperform most other assets through the end of next year, as the hype around AI builds and lower inflation facilitates more monetary easing in some places than investors are discounting. The tech-heavy US stock market …
1st July 2024
The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that the recovery in global industry lost some momentum at the end of Q2. While activity in emerging markets continued to grow strongly, industry was still struggling in some large advanced economies. Nonetheless, …
The EM manufacturing PMI rose to a three-year high in June, driven by improvements in the surveys in much of Asia which have continued to benefit from strong export demand. Manufacturing recoveries are progressing more slowly in parts of Europe. The PMIs …
Investors have welcomed the broadly unsurprising results of the first round of the French legislative elections, but the discount on French financial assets is still there and, in our view, likely to stay. The final results of the election’s first round …
Much of the recent focus has been on France’s political turmoil, but Germany has had its own troubles with disagreement over the 2025 budget threatening the survival of the governing coalition. While we think an agreement will eventually be found, budget …
More signs that the economy is struggling for momentum The ISM manufacturing index was little changed in June, leaving it consistent at face value with a small fall in GDP. While the ISM has not been a good leading indicator of GDP growth in recent years, …
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s (MbS) ultimate succession to become king is inevitable and a formality. Having been the de-facto leader of the Kingdom for several years it may not result in much of a deviation in economic policymaking. …
Disinflation resumes, but services inflation stays high Inflation figures for Germany and other major euro-zone economies suggest that, after rising in May, euro-zone headline and core inflation edged back down in June. But services inflation remained …
In the aftermath of Joe Biden’s poorly received debate performance, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing explains the market response and highlights potential economic risks around a second Trump presidency. He also reviews the latest US inflation data and …
There have been two major developments in markets over the past week. The first is the initial round of voting in France’s parliamentary election, which was won by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party but where a strong turnout and the formation …
PMI still weak, but at least its improving South Africa’s manufacturing PMI remained weak in June but improving electricity supply conditions and reduced political uncertainty should support a modest pick-up in activity. That said, the economy is in a …
Net lending to property shows early signs of a recovery Net lending to property increased for the second consecutive month in May, rising by £1.0bn. The increase was entirely due to a rise in lending to standing investments, with development lending …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Further evidence the drag on activity from higher interest rates is fading May’s money and lending data provided a bit further evidence that the drag from higher activity is …
Surveys point to Turkey rebalancing, Russia overheating The manufacturing PMIs for June provide encouraging signs that a rebalancing of Turkey’s economy is underway, with domestic demand weakening and inflation pressures softening. But in Russia, the …
House prices flat in Q2 Although house prices rose slightly in June, an earlier dip means they were flat on the quarter in Q2. With signs mortgage rates are causing demand to falter and that supply is improving, we think that house prices will flatline at …
The PMIs from Emerging Asia picked up strongly last month, but we doubt this will last given the subdued outlook for global demand. Meanwhile, the decline in inflation in Indonesia last month supports our view that the central bank will cut interest rates …
With unhedged yield gaps still very much in favour of overseas bonds and hedged returns set to improve as overseas central banks slash borrowing costs, Japanese investors won’t respond to higher JGB yields by repatriating capital. And while we expect …
Housing market will cool in earnest Australian house price gains softened just a smidge in June as housing demand held up reasonably well. However, as strained affordability takes its toll, we still think that house price growth will ease markedly in the …
Surveys likely understate health of manufacturing sector This report was first published on Monday 1 st July covering the official PMIs and the Caixin manufacturing PMI. We added commentary on the Caixin services and composite PMIs on Wednesday 3 rd July. …
This website has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Tankan points to renewed strengthening in price pressures The Q2 Tankan survey suggests that economic activity will remain sluggish but the most striking development was the …
Final results still uncertain but fiscal outlook will be worse after the election The preliminary results of the first round of voting are broadly in line with the final opinion polls, showing that Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition has lost out to both …
30th June 2024
Incumbent President Biden’s uneven performance during the debate yesterday with his predecessor and challenger, Donald Trump, has reduced Biden’s perceived chance of winning re-election significantly. Financial markets have not reacted much to this …
28th June 2024
The US dollar index looks set to end the week broadly unchanged after core PCE came in line with expectations today. Yesterday’s presidential debate in the US also does not seem to have had much impact on the dollar despite the sizable change in election …
The May CPI data were a step back after the run of soft core price readings in the first quarter. The broader evidence stills seems supportive of a July interest rate cut, but the next CPI release for June, to be released in the run up to that meeting, …
Biden debate woes leave Trump ahead Trump’s conviction vs Biden’s lack of conviction Joe Biden’s faltering debate performance leaves Donald Trump as the narrow favourite to win this November’s presidential election. There isn’t an alternative Democratic …
Africa Chart Pack (June. 2024) …
Failed coup, economy on the ropes The news on Wednesday that armed soldiers had tried to storm Bolivia’s presidential palace in an attempted coup seemed to hark back to the Latin America of the 1970s (as well as a James Bond film of the 2000s). The …
Supply-side reform won’t fix consumer weakness This week, the government published guidelines on creating “new consumption scenarios” with the aim of “coordinating the expansion of domestic demand while deepening supply-side structural reforms”. We’ve …
Heading for a slightly stronger second quarter The solid rise in GDP in April and preliminary estimate of a small increase in May leave the economy on track to perform better than the Bank of Canada expected this quarter, but not by enough to have any …
We’re just two days from the first round of the French legislative election. (All of our election coverage can be found here .) Voting closes on Sunday at 8pm Paris time (7pm BST) and polling organisations should release estimated results shortly …
How could the French election result impact CEE? The surprise decision by French President Macron to announce early parliamentary elections (with the first round taking place this Sunday) has led to a period of turbulence in European bond markets. The …
The Dallas Fed survey of oil and gas firms released this week revealed deep dissatisfaction with the Biden administration. While there was little of note in the closely trailed headline numbers – participants indicate that oil and natural gas production …
Inflation fading, consumers faltering The core PCE deflator increased by only 0.08% m/m in May and, even allowing for some modest upward revisions to the gains in earlier months, that was enough to pull the annual core inflation rate down to 2.57%, from …
South Africa: cracks already showing in the GNU Disagreements between the South Africa’s largest party, the ANC, and its main partner in the government of national unity (GNU), the DA, over cabinet posts reinforces our point that the coalition is fragile …
It is striking how calm UK financial markets have been ahead of next week’s general election. As we set out in our UK Markets Chart Pack , while investor concern over the result of the French elections has led to a near-30 basis points (bps) rise in …
Further economic weakness in Korea Korea’s economy weakened markedly in May. Data published today show that retail sales fell by 0.2% m/m last month, a second consecutive monthly fall. With the labour market cooling and high interest rates weighing on …
The UK offers a microcosm of green fiscal issues The issue of paying for the green transition has been a recurring theme in the run-up to the forthcoming UK election; the watering down of Labour’s flagship climate policy earlier this year, which had …
More to plunge in inward FDI that meets the eye The Q1 2024 Balance of Payments data released this week has refocused attention on the slump in net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. In the four quarters to Q1, net FDI inflows dropped to US$26.5bn, …
Services inflation remains high Inflation figures for France, Italy and Spain suggest that euro-zone headline inflation edged down in June, while core and services inflation held broadly steady. This supports our view that the ECB will cut rates only …
