A plunge in credit spreads in recent months suggests to us that there is now limited scope for corporate bonds to outperform government bonds over the next couple of years, even if the global economy holds up relatively well. And if we are right about …
10th February 2023
Philippines is the outlier In most of the region inflationary pressures are continuing to ease and central banks are preparing to bring tightening cycles to an end. (See here .) A key exception is the Philippines, where a jump in headline inflation to a …
Further thoughts on Turkey’s earthquake disaster The earthquake that hit Turkey and Syria this week, killing more than 21,000 people, is a human tragedy and our thoughts are with everyone affected. It’s still too early to fully assess the macroeconomic …
Labour market strength eases recession fears The surge in employment and strong rise in hours worked in January suggest that GDP growth will be stronger than we anticipated this quarter. However, the decline in wage growth means that unexpected strength …
It doesn’t really matter if the economy was in recession last year or not (although according to the technical definition it was not). (See here .) Two other factors are more important. First, recession or no recession, the economy is weak. Real GDP …
First impressions are important because of the primacy effect which means they are, apparently, stored more easily in the long-term memory. That may be why Erik Thedéen used his first meeting as Riksbank Governor to spring a hawkish surprise this week, …
Hawks singing the same tune At February’s ECB meeting, policymakers were unwilling to commit to raising interest rates further beyond the promised 50bp hike in March. But their comments this week show a clear intention to do so. Table 1 summarises some …
The raft of EM central bank meetings over the past couple of weeks reinforces the view that monetary tightening cycles have now drawn to a close or are very close to doing so, several months earlier than in their DM counterparts. Policymakers in some EM …
Some of the moves in China’s financial markets that followed its rapid reopening – including a rise in equity prices, higher bond yields and stronger renminbi – have unwound in the past couple of weeks, but we think they will resume before too long. …
CBR changes the script as inflation risks mount Russia’s central bank (CBR) left rates on hold at 7.50% today but its communications were far more hawkish than expected as it talked about a further build-up of inflation risks and the possibility of hiking …
The main development of the week happened in the past few hours: the reported nomination of Kazuo Ueda as the next BoJ Governor. Our initial response is here . While analysts and investors are looking for clarity on Mr Ueda’s views, there is little to …
Credit growth is bottoming out After slowing last year, bank loan growth jumped to a 10-month high in January. After accounting for seasonal effects, broad credit growth looks to have ticked up too. We expect the recovery to continue in the near-term as …
Credit growth is bottoming out After slowing last year, bank loan growth jumped to a 10-month high in January. Broad credit growth looks to have ticked up too after accounting for seasonal effects. We expect the recovery to continue in the near-term as …
Recession may come this year as resilience recedes The economy escaped a recession in 2022 by the skin of its teeth (£77m to be precise). But with the full drags from high inflation and high interest rates yet to be felt, we think there will be a …
RBI still cautious on inflation Though the RBI slowed the pace of tightening with a 25bp hike to the repo rate (to 6.50%) this week, the tone of the communications was more hawkish than we had anticipated. The slight rise in the 10-year bond yield …
The nomination of Kazuo Ueda to lead the Bank of Japan could be read as a sign that the Kishida government is seeking a shift away from ultra-loose policy, but we aren’t fully convinced that this is the case. According to media reports, Japan’s government …
Rate hike next month a near certainty, more could follow The strength of consumer price inflation in January makes it all but certain that the Norges Bank will raise its policy rate at its next meeting in March, most likely by 25bp. And with house …
Economy likely to have rebounded strongly in Q4 The rebound in industrial production in Turkey in December and the strength of retail sales in recent months point to an expansion of GDP in the order of 0.5-1.0% q/q in Q4. Activity will be disrupted this …
Avoiding a recession in 2023 will prove harder The 0.5% m/m fall in real GDP in December was worse than expected (consensus -0.3%), but the 0.0% change in Q4 (consensus 0.0%, BoE +0.1%) meant that the economy avoided a recession last year by the skin of …
GDP contracted sharply in Q4 2022 and we think the economy will continue to struggle in the coming quarters as high interest rates, weak external demand and tepid consumption activity drag on prospects. Economic output fell by 2.6% q/q in Q4 after growing …
With trimmed mean inflation surpassing the Bank’s November forecast in Q4, the RBA turned more hawkish when it lifted the cash rate by 25bp on Tuesday. Today’s Statement on Monetary Policy shows that the Bank expects inflation to only touch the top end of …
Economy set to struggle over the coming quarters The economy contracted sharply in the final quarter of last year and we think it will remain weak in the coming quarters as elevated interest rates, weak external demand and tepid consumption activity drag …
Inflation ticking up on reopening effects Factory-gate prices continued to decline last month thanks to falling commodity prices and waning supply chain disruption. But at the same time, a jump in demand for travel and other services following the removal …
Banxico hikes by 50bp, and flags another increase Mexico’s central bank delivered a larger-than-expected 50bp interest rate hike, to 11.00%, today most probably because the recent uptick in services inflation spooked the Board. Another rate hike (probably …
9th February 2023
We doubt the recent renewed outperformance of the “big-tech” sectors of the US stock market will continue in the coming months given the prospect of a mild recession, even if TIPS yields fall again. Despite some disappointing news on the earnings front, …
We expect stretched affordability and rising unemployment to lead to an increase in rental arrears and evictions in the coming quarters, causing rental household formation to turn negative and apartment demand to soften. We have argued since mid-2022 that …
We anticipate interest rate hikes in Mexico and Peru… (Thu.) … but think Russia’s central bank will leave rates on hold (Fri.) UK GDP data likely to show that the economy avoided a recession in 2022 (Fri.) Key Market Themes Shrinking central bank …
Overall services price growth has already slowed but, for the Bank of Canada to loosen policy, we will need to see far more convincing signs of lower inflation in the most labour-intensive service sectors. The Bank has stressed that it is following …
We expect “high-beta” developed market (DM) currencies to weaken against the dollar over the coming months as risk sentiment worsens and, in some cases, yield gaps move against them. But we anticipate a rebound in appetite for risk later this year and …
PIF increasingly leaned on to drive Saudi investment Saudi Arabia’s Q3 balance of payments data showed that the Kingdom’s current account surplus boomed on the back of stronger oil receipts. Most of that surplus is still being recycled by the Public …
A stunning January jobs report has shifted the market narrative around the US economy, but has the fundamental story really changed that much? And does the economic picture justify the market’s bullish start to 2023 or have investors been partying in the …
Slowing jobs growth, a tech-driven slump in net absorption and a strong supply pipeline underline our view that Dublin prime office rents will fall slightly this year. This would mark a sharp correction from the bumper rent growth in 2022 and is more …
The Adani saga hasn’t done much to reduce the comparatively stretched valuation of India’s stock market. In our view, that means there is still scope for it to underperform over the long run. India’s stock market generally avoided the sell-offs seen in …
We think business insolvencies may rise to a record high of around 8,400 per quarter by Q2 2024 and take until at least early 2025 to return to a more “normal” level of just over 4,000 per quarter. The total rise in insolvencies above this normal level is …
Tightening cycle over, but cuts unlikely until 2024 The National Bank of Romania (NBR) left its policy rate on hold today, at 7.00%, and we think that its tightening cycle is now over. Even so, interest rate cuts probably won’t arrive until 2024. Today’s …
Rise in Mexican inflation paves the way for 25bp rate hike later today Mexico’s headline inflation rate edged up to 7.9% y/y in January, setting the scene for Banxico to raise interest rates by 25bp, to 10.75%, later today. We think that this will mark …
The Riksbank’s 50bp rate hike today was expected but the decision to begin actively selling government bonds and the emphasis on the exchange rate were a surprise. Possibly this simply reflects the new Governor’s desire to make his mark. Either way, we …
Foreign capital inflows have been soft this year in spite of the improvement in the economic outlook for EMs and the weaker dollar. And the very latest data suggest that capital has flowed out of EMs recently, which is a trend that we think is likely to …
Governor Thedéen steps on the brakes The Riksbank’s decision to raise its policy rate by 50bp today was expected but the decision to begin actively selling government bonds is a surprise. We now think the policy rate will rise a bit further in the coming …
This page has been updated with an additional chart and table of the key data. Inflation jumps to fastest pace since 2017 as food inflation hits record high Egypt’s headline inflation rate climbed from 21.3% y/y in December to 25.8% y/y in January, its …
German inflation statistics debacle continues The main takeaway from German flash inflation figures for January, which were finally released today after a week of delay, is that headline inflation in both Germany and the euro-zone fell further in January, …
Survey delivers reality check to new year optimism There was some hope that, in keeping with the pause in house price falls recorded by Halifax in January, the RICS survey would show a recovery in demand on the back of the modest decline in mortgage …
Bank balancing risks of sticky services inflation and housing market The Summary of Deliberations reveals that the Bank of Canada is still concerned about the risk that inflation will not decline all the way back to the 2% target, but that it ultimately …
8th February 2023
Refinery activity to remain subdued this quarter Commercial crude stocks rose again this week, despite a rise in inputs to refineries. That said, refinery activity is unlikely to pick up markedly in the coming weeks given ongoing maintenance and only …
We expect the Riksbank to conclude its tightening cycle with a 50bp hike (08.30 GMT) The central banks of Mexico and Peru are also likely to deliver final 25bp hikes… …while policymakers in Romania will probably keep interest rates on hold Key Market …
Q4 stronger than expected The latest industrial production and retail sales data for Russia for December were relatively weak, but Q4 was a bit stronger than we had expected and the economy is likely to have expanded slightly in the final quarter. Over …
A surge in property yields helped commercial property valuations improve for the first time in two years in the final quarter of 2022. Jumps in alternative asset yields late last year following the ‘mini-Budget’ meant the shift was modest, but those …
