Africa Economics Weekly Naira plunges, SA budget, Uganda/Kenya late cuts The devaluation of the naira this week may be a sign that there’s fresh impetus to Nigeria’s policy shift, which had been stalling. A key test will come at the (long-overdue) central bank meeting... 2nd February 2024 · 6 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: Easing cycles, debt risks, and the outlook for EM bonds 1707404400 While developed market central banks pontificate over the timing of rate cuts, the loosening cycle among emerging markets is well underway and gathering pace.
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI recorded a sharp drop in January as logistics problems and weak demand weighed on activity. We still expect growth to pick up over the course of this year, but this... 1st February 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is set to strengthen over 2024-25 as the external backdrop turns more favourable and, in some places, the drag from high inflation eases. But this boost will be... 31st January 2024 · 0 mins read
Africa Data Response Ghana Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The Bank of Ghana kicked off its easing cycle with a 100bp cut, to 29.00%, today and an improving balance of payments position alongside further falls in inflation mean that more cuts are on the cards... 29th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA rates takeaways, Côte d’Ivoire Eurobonds The South African MPC’s concerns expressed at this week’s meeting about an inflation resurgence look overdone, but with fiscal risks high ahead of the election, officials will continue to tread... 26th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Interest Rate Announcement The South African Reserve Bank resisted responding to last month’s fall in inflation with an interest rate cut, leaving the repo rate unchanged at 8.25% today. The MPC’s message was little changed... 25th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Lessons from Africa’s sovereign debt restructurings Ghana’s relatively quick progress in debt restructuring talks with creditors contrasts with the slow experiences of Ethiopia and Zambia. Much of this can be explained by the China’s role in... 24th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Dec.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate fell back further to 5.1% y/y in December but this is unlikely to be enough to convince the Reserve Bank to start an easing cycle tomorrow. 24th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA rates, Kenya debt swap, Nigeria loans Remarks this week from SARB Governor Kganyago increase the chances of interest rates in South Africa staying high for longer, particularly if fiscal risks build ahead of the election. Kenya, meanwhile... 19th January 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya better placed to avoid default, for now One of the big questions in Kenya in 2024 is whether the government can meet a $2bn Eurobond repayment due in the middle of the year. An improving balance of payments position, alongside an enhanced... 16th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Rapid Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec.) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate rose again to 28.9% y/y in December, as a weak naira continues to push up prices. Aggressive interest rate hikes are long overdue in order to bring inflation under... 15th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa IRP, Transnet cash, World Bank optimism South Africa presented its draft energy plan, which brought bad news to those concerned about loadshedding and the commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Meanwhile, the country’s finance... 12th January 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rose to an 11-month high in December, helped by an easing of loadshedding. Alongside hopes that recent freight problems are past the worst, this chimes with our view... 8th January 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria deficit, Ethiopia-Somalia tensions, Kenya GDP Nigeria’s 2024 budget, signed into law this week, included encouraging signs that the government will cease deficit monetisation, providing hope that the Tinubu administration’s reform momentum hasn’t... 5th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: refineries to help but not solve external strains Output from Nigeria’s oil refinery sector has been in terminal decline, inflating the fuel import bill at a time when the economy is already suffering from a shortage of hard currency. The new Dangote... 4th January 2024 · 5 mins read
