Africa Economics Update Kenya protests could reignite sovereign default fears The escalating protests in Kenya will add to the near-term headwinds facing economic activity as well as raise further question marks over the government’s ability to push through fiscal consolidation... 25th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA GNU reform challenge, Kenya tax U-turn The government of national unity (GNU) formed by South Africa’s ANC and DA has led to a rally in local financial markets, but forming this unity government may prove to be the easy part. The necessary... 21st June 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa’s economy slowly turning the corner South Africa’s new government of national unity (GNU) will welcome signs that the economy showed signs of perking up at the start of Q2. We think this burst of momentum has further to run, although... 19th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (May.) South Africa’s headline inflation rate was unchanged at 5.2% y/y in May and, while still some way off the 4.5% mid-point of the SARB’s target range, the formation of a government of national unity... 19th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria food prices, Kenya budget, ANC-DA deal A surge in food prices in Nigeria this week presents a challenge to the optimistic tone the authorities are trying to strike on the inflation outlook. To contain these inflation risks for good, the... 14th June 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update ANC-DA coalition helps to calm investors’ nerves Reports that the African National Congress (ANC) has reached a deal with the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA) to form a “national unity” government will be welcomed by investors. If confirmed... 14th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA’s uncertain coalition talks, Nigeria’s strike South Africa’s post-election uncertainty continued this week, with the ANC outlining its desire for a government of national unity with a broad range of opposition parties. This looks like a non... 7th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa GDP (Q1 2024) South Africa’s economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in the first quarter of the year and the latest evidence suggests that fragility has continued into Q2. A less acute drag from loadshedding should support... 4th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s election: entering the unknown South Africa’s final election results confirmed that support for the ANC fell far short of a majority, leaving it reliant on a coalition with one of the larger opposition parties to stay in power. The... 3rd June 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (May.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI plummeted in May and, while we expect conditions to improve as the electricity situation continues to stabilise, alongside recent activity data it underlines the... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA elections: State of play & implications for the SARB South Africa’s election results have continued to trickle in, but the overriding message since the early hours of the count is that the ANC has fallen well short of a majority. A coalition with one of... 31st May 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa’s Election The early results from South Africa’s election which took place yesterday point to the ruling ANC securing a vote share closer to the low end of projections (at just over 40%), increasing the chances... 30th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May. 2024) Regional growth appears to have stabilised in Q1 and we think that a better external environment will provide a boost in the near term. Still, we think GDP growth will undershoot consensus... 28th May 2024 · 0 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA elections: Can the ANC hold on? Kenya-US visit There’s less than a week to go until South Africa’s pivotal election and there remains significant uncertainty about the ANC’s likely vote share and, if it’s forced to go into coalition, who it will... 24th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q1 2024) Nigeria’s GDP growth slowed to 3.0% y/y in Q1, driven by a halving in the oil sector growth rate, alongside high inflation and tighter monetary conditions continuing to drag on the non-oil economy. We... 24th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa’s election: into the unknown? South Africa’s upcoming election looks set to herald a new era of coalition government. There are lots of permutations ranging from a centrist ANC-DA coalition to a so-called ‘doomsday coalition’ in... 23rd May 2024 · 18 mins read
